Securing the Baltic: Maritime Confrontation and Strategic Posturing

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The Baltic Sea, a semi-enclosed sea in the North Atlantic Ocean, has emerged as a fresh flashpoint amid escalating tensions following Russia’s war against Ukraine. An important maritime geography, the region hosts vital sea routes, with more than 1500 large vessels transiting it at any given time. The Baltic Sea is a shared maritime space between three Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), four Nordic countries (Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Norway), Central European countries such as Poland and Germany, and Russia. Moscow has two access points to the Baltic Sea: off the coast of St. Petersburg, and via the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad wedged between Poland and Lithuania. 

All countries in the Baltic Sea region, except Russia, are members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the European Union (EU). This underscores the potential for the region to evolve into a new flashpoint in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war. Tensions in the Baltic Sea region have been on the rise since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Russia’s relations with the Baltic Sea nations have soured, and the region has become more cognisant of its security interests, with states attempting to check perceived Russian threats. Moscow has also reinforced its naval assets in the region, prompting the Baltic states to scale up their military budgets and commit to collective security architectures, thereby escalating the prospect of confrontation with Russia.

How the Baltic Sea Became a Flashpoint, Again 

The recent rise in tensions in the Baltic Sea region can be traced back through history. From the Second World War, right up to the end of the Cold War, the erstwhile Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) maintained control over much of the Baltic Sea. The dissolution of the Soviet Union and the disbanding of the Warsaw Pact resulted in a shifting geopolitical matrix in the region, with former communist states in Eastern and Central Europe moving away from Russia’s orbit by joining NATO and the EU. Furthermore, the induction of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia into NATO in 2004 alarmed Moscow, reinforcing its perception of NATO’s expanding influence within what it considers its sphere of influence. 

Given that the Baltic states are protected under Article 5 of the NATO charter, Russia has scaled up its hybrid warfare operations in the region. These tactics have included information warfare, political subversion, cyberattacks, manipulation of energy tariffs, and an increase in covert operations. 

Following Russia's annexation of Crimea and its subsequent war against Ukraine, NATO has significantly expanded its presence in the Baltic. In 2017, under its Enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) initiative, NATO deployed multinational battlegroups to the Baltic and Poland. In response, Moscow reinforced its defensive posture from Kaliningrad by establishing anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) zones to secure its interests in the Baltic Sea. Russia exports a majority of its natural resources via the Baltic Sea, with almost two-thirds of Russian oil exports transported via this route. Further, given that the Baltic states are protected under Article 5 of the NATO charter, Russia has scaled up its hybrid warfare operations in the region. These tactics have included information warfare, political subversion, cyberattacks, manipulation of energy tariffs, and an increase in covert operations. 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was, in many ways, a watershed moment for the Baltic Sea states, which unequivocally expressed their support for Ukraine and joined the sanctions regime against Russia.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was, in many ways, a watershed moment for the Baltic Sea states, which unequivocally expressed their support for Ukraine and joined the sanctions regime against Russia. The same year, Finland and Sweden were invited to join NATO, with their formal accessions being completed in 2023 and 2024, respectively, transforming the Baltic Sea into, as some analysts put it, a “NATO lake.” Further, these countries allege that Russia has intensified its hybrid warfare operations in the region, targeting critical undersea infrastructure, such as energy pipelines and underwater cables, thereby heightening threat perceptions and destabilising the regional security balance.

Efforts to Secure the Baltic  

In response to the perceived Russian threat, like-minded countries in the region have progressively expanded their defence budgets (see Table 1.1). With military expenditure crossing or projected to cross the 2.5 per cent mark in the near future, the region is poised to emerge as a critical security flashpoint. Further, the frequency of NATO exercises also appears to have increased in the Baltic Sea. Apart from joint military exercises, the Baltic sea navies have been mandated to seize commercial vessels facilitating the transit of Russian oil sold below the price cap of $60. The seizure of ships has prompted Moscow to intervene by deploying naval assets, resulting in an increased prospect of confrontation between Russia and the Baltic navies. 

Table 1.1: Military spending in the Baltic Sea region

Source: Consolidated data from SIPRI and respective government publications. 

In addition to the steady rise in military spending, like-minded countries in the region, under the umbrella of NATO, have expanded their scope of cooperation to address growing Russian assertiveness. The Baltic Sea region has increasingly become a critical maritime flashpoint where this strategic contest is unfolding. Earlier in 2025, NATO launched the Baltic Sentry Initiative, aimed at bolstering efforts to protect critical infrastructure in the region. With rising concerns over the vulnerability of maritime assets, particularly undersea infrastructure, securing the Baltic Sea has assumed greater urgency in security agendas.

With rising concerns over the vulnerability of maritime assets, particularly undersea infrastructure, securing the Baltic Sea has assumed greater urgency in security agendas.

The urgency of efforts to secure the region is playing out by way of a tacit game of posturing between NATO and Russia. Both have launched simultaneous drills in the Baltic, escalating tensions in the region. For over fifty years, since 1971, NATO has conducted its military drills, the Baltops Naval Exercise, in the Baltic Sea, to advance maritime security cooperation as well as interoperability and operational coordination. The agenda for maritime cooperation under the Baltops Naval Exercise includes anti-submarine and air defence operations, mine clearance, as well as humanitarian exercises. However, notably, for the first time, Russia appears to have moved its military drills ahead by a month to coincide with the Baltops Naval Exercise. The magnitude of Russia’s drills is underlined by the deployment of a fleet of twenty warships, heightening tensions in the region. 

Moscow has also reinforced its naval assets in the region, prompting the Baltic states to scale up their military budgets and commit to collective security architectures, thereby escalating the prospect of confrontation with Russia.

The tensions between Russia and its neighbours in Europe have escalated sharply over the years. With new frontiers emerging in the contest for dominance, the Baltic Sea appears to have emerged as a new strategic flashpoint. This development has further reinforced the maritime character of the contest. Much like the Baltic, the Arctic has also become a vital theatre of geopolitical rivalry. Given recent developments, sustained emphasis on the maritime domain is likely to shape the trajectory of the rapidly intensifying contest between Russia and NATO, with the Baltic Sea emerging as a critical and strategic flashpoint. 

Rajoli Siddharth Jayaprakash is a Research Assistant with the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation.

Sayantan Haldar is a Research Assistant with the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation.

• International Affairs
• Great Power Dynamics
• Defence and Security
• Maritime Security
• European Union
• Baltic Nations
• Baltic Sea
• Baltics
• Maritime Nations

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