The world is moving toward renewed imperial conflict rather than a harmonious multipolarity, with Europe yet to define its role in this shifting landscape
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This article is a part of the essay series “Budapest Edit”
The central question of the coming decade will be whether multipolarity will lead to more national sovereignty or a new form of neo-imperialism. The concept of more experienced nations exerting control over areas struggling with self-governance may not be entirely unfounded, especially as a multipolar world emerges. While scepticism exists about true multipolarity—requiring nations equal to the United States (US) in capabilities—regional power shifts are expected, as seen in the Middle East, where figures like Turkish President Erdogan express ambitions reminiscent of Ottoman imperialism, aiming to reclaim former territories.
In contrast to the post-nationalist mindset prevalent in Western Europe, many regions appear to embrace neo-imperialism. Russia exemplifies this with its historical strategies for territorial expansion, as seen in its invasion of Ukraine and involvement in Central Asia. Meanwhile, China pursues a modern form of imperialism through economic means, employing debt-trap diplomacy to create dependencies among nations, under its Belt and Road Initiative. This approach mirrors ancient tributary systems, and China’s growing assertiveness is creating tensions with Russia, especially regarding Central Asian resources and the Russian Far East.
A knowledgeable West could leverage these tensions, yet current diplomatic efforts appear lacking in skill and historical understanding.
Türkiye and China's ambitions reflect a desire to revise historical grievances from previous periods. The potential for conflict between these two imperial revisionist powers complicates global stability. A knowledgeable West could leverage these tensions, yet current diplomatic efforts appear lacking in skill and historical understanding.
The US continues its imperial role through the dominance of the US dollar and significant military capability. While former President Trump rejected the notion of the US as the “world’s policeman,” he still emphasised American primacy, suggesting a commitment to maintaining a strong international presence through its military bases.
The world is moving toward renewed imperial conflict rather than a harmonious multipolarity, with Europe yet to define its role in this shifting landscape. Future discussions will focus on the implications of demographic decline, technological advancements, and mass migration within this emerging order.
Ralph Schoellhammer is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Webster University
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Ralph Schoellhammer is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Webster University in Vienna, specializing in international relations and political theory. His research focuses on ...
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