Despite high inflation and low popularity ratings, President Joe Biden has entered the record books for defying the conventional wisdom that the party in the White House gets a beating in midterm elections. So unexpected was the Democrats’ performance that even the loss of the House of Representatives was seen as a “win” because the Republican victory is too narrow to be considered a repudiation of Biden and the Democrats retained control of the Senate. Even at the state level, Democrats did better than expected, making a net gain in governorships and flipping a couple of state legislatures. All in all, the Democrats ended up with one of the best midterms for either party over the last hundred years.

Republicans will try to use their slim majority in the House to launch investigations and embarrass the administration.

But as Biden gets ready for the new year and a new Congress, he faces a divided legislature. Republicans will try to use their slim majority in the House to launch investigations and embarrass the administration. Democrats will push back and the next two years will see a political gridlock. The level of difficulty in getting anything through on foreign and domestic policy will be higher but not impossible. Lost in all the doom and gloom about potential political dysfunction affecting Biden’s agenda is a hard question facing the Republicans—where is the party going? Now that voters have rejected extremist candidates endorsed by former president Donald Trump, will the leadership try to loosen his grip on the party in a serious manner or will it continue the strategy of neither rejecting nor embracing him in full? It is good to remember that the Republican Party has tried to walk away from Trump in the past and walked back after checking the pulse of his base. Whether this time would be different remains unclear. Many Republican lawmakers and analysts blame Trump for the Red wave crashing this election. Independent and swing voters were scared off by the former president’s insistent claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him despite there being no evidence. Several Republican candidates promoted the false claim to their great loss at the polls.

Independent and swing voters were scared off by the former president’s insistent claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him despite there being no evidence.

Voters were also turned off by the “chaos” Trump represents, his constant victimhood and ability to offend friends and foes alike. The midterm results, however, did clarify the minds of major Republican donors who have pointedly moved away from the former president. Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman, a key donor, said the Republican Party needed to turn to a new generation of leaders who are rooted in the future, not the past. It was a reference to Trump’s obsession with the 2020 election. Another big donor hinted he would support Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in his bid to be president. Mike Pence, former vice president, former Trump acolyte, and a future contender for the presidency, has also said voters were looking for new leadership. He predicted they would have “better choices” than the former president in 2024. Pence made the comments hours after Trump announced that he would run again in 2024. But if the midterms produced a ‘star’ in the Republican firmament, it was DeSantis, who handily won a second term as governor of Florida, a key state that he has managed to transform into a Red state for the most part. He is seen as a real contender sinceDeSantis represents Trump-like positions but without the drama and dysfunction. Other contenders include Indian American Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina and Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, who hinted at a possible run earlier last week while addressing the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas.

The Trump Republicans are engaged in hard bargaining with conventional Republicans, forcing a more extremist agenda, on the other, progressive Democrats are in perpetual battle mode against centrists and moderates making Biden’s job harder.

Dynamics in the Republican Party are as complex, if not more, than those of the Democratic Party. On the one hand, the Trump Republicans are engaged in hard bargaining with conventional Republicans, forcing a more extremist agenda, on the other, progressive Democrats are in perpetual battle mode against centrists and moderates making Biden’s job harder. Given the larger polarisation of American society, a divided Congress would likely deepen rather than lessen the divide. Both parties will speak to their respective “core” issues and indulge in trench warfare. Basic governance will get done—voting on budgets and appropriations—but no far-reaching legislation meant to change people’s lives is expected in the next two years. Congressman Kevin McCarthy is likely to be speaker of the new House in 2023 if he can overcome resistance from Trump Republicans by the time the new Congress convenes in January. In keeping with hyper-partisan traditions of recent times, he is more likely to work on what Americans call “wedge issues” that divide rather than issues that unite.

• International Affairs
• US Foreign Policy
• USA and Canada
• Biden
• Democrats
• gridlock
• midterm elections
• Republican
• Trump

The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.