Yameen was arrested on lower court orders, which acted on a police complaint that he was seeking to influence witnesses in a larger money-laundering case pertaining to his presidency.
When only a week was left for the parliamentary poll, scheduled for 6 April, Maldives’ jailed former president Abdulla Yameen received good news from Male’s High Court on 28 March. It’s three-judge bench first ordered freedom for Yameen, allowing him some leeway to campaign with whatever resources now at his command. Two days later, the High Court also ordered de-freezing of Yameen’s MVR 100 million in bank accounts, saying the lower court that ordered the freeze had violated the Criminal Procedure Code (CrPC).
Yameen was arrested on lower court orders, which acted on a police complaint that he was seeking to influence witnesses in a larger money-laundering case pertaining to his presidency. A section of the international media claimed that his freedom flowed from procedural issues. However, the HC pointed to the failure of the prosecution to file the charge-sheet against him within the mandatory 30 days after his arrest.
The court’s reasoning may have put paid to incumbent President Ibrahim Solih’s claims later on the same day (28 March) that his administration would not exert ‘undue political influence’ over the police. His speech at the 86th anniversary of the Maldives Police Service (MPS) was, however, noticeable for his declaration that “a civilian must feel peace and safety when they meet a police officer.” There can be no denying the return of the near-Utopian situation under his rule, compared to the preceding five years of the Yameen regime.
Questions are also being raised about the propriety and urgency with which President Solih confirmed the nation’s acting police commissioner Mohamed Hameed in that post. ‘MC’ Hameed was asked to step in, in December, after Solih sacked Hamdhoon Rasheed, appointed to the post by Yameen after his own defeat in the presidential poll. It’s possible that the government wanted to give the MPS a full-fledged chief for their anniversary fete, but then poll-time was/is not the best of times for effecting such changes. If nothing else, the MPS anniversary was on cards even when Hameed was appointed the acting boss.
Coupled with President Solih’s earlier declaration that a defeat for his Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) in the parliamentary polls could lead to another coup of the 2012 kind, the Yameen arrest-and-freedom episode may have put the former’s campaign already on a defensive mode. Solih’s concerns over a possible coup were endorsed by MDP boss Mohammed Nasheed, who was in office when the 2012 episode occurred.
It is difficult for a president and his party who have ‘dethroned an autocrat’ only months ago not to harp on their mandate and previous poll promises at the parliamentary elections, soon after. However, there is another side to the story, too. For the parliamentary polls, the MDP has sidelined allies, starting with Parliament Speaker Gasim Ibrahim’s Jumhooree Party (JP).
This is because the other two ruling allies, namely the religion-centric Adhaalath Party (AP) and the Maumoon Reform Movement (MRM), the third political party to be launched by former president Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, have grudgingly accepted whatever the MDP offered — or, did not offer — for want of a choice and electoral confidence. A hung Parliament now would not upset the presidency straight away, but it could stall the progress of government policies and programmes, if the MDP does not master the art of managing a coalition government.
For a former president, Nasheed has set a precedent of sorts. He is contesting the parliamentary polls from the newly-carved, smallest constituency of Central Machanghoalhi constituency in capital Male. In doing so, he also went through motions of contesting and winning the MDP primaries, where he also faced competition from within — but to no avail.
Nasheed has declared that his presence in Parliament, and possibly as MDP group leader/Leader of the House, was aimed at strengthening the hands of President Solih, incidentally his closest friend and political associate of long years. However, in transferring intentions to actions, some MDP insiders do see day-to-day problems of the kind that had hampered the Nasheed presidency in its time (2008-12).
According to some media-run poll surveys, the MDP stands a better chance overall, but Nasheed is facing tough competition from Ibrahim Mohammed, an independent candidate supported by religious NGOs. Ibrahim is the son of a respected Islamic scholar from the area. The presence of at least two other Independents with an MDP past too has not helped Nasheed, who has to share the party’s nation-wide campaign-responsibility with President Solih — and do more than the latter. However, MDP cadres take heart in the fact that it’s only an opinion poll, and not the real thing.
Nothing describes the perceived discomfiture of President Solih to the internal developments within the ruling coalition than a television interview, where he reportedly expressed discomfort at the number of political appointees in his dispensation. Opposed by his MDP when Yameen was in power, the number of political appointees under the Solih regime is said to be fewer than acceptable.
However, there are close to three dozen ‘Policy Directors’ in the Government, more of them being added by the week. Originally identified and appointed as a transition arrangement between the presidential polls and Solih’s inauguration, now the post has become a permanent fixture with an expanding base and number. However, Solih sort of explained it away to coalition compulsions of the kind, which is not unique to Maldives or the MDP-led arrangement at present.
Yet, there is no denying the inherent advantage accruing to the MDP in a multi-cornered contest of the kind. The MDP continues to be the single largest party in terms of verified memberships registered with the nation’s Election Commission (EC). Party boss Nasheed is the single most popular and charismatic leader in the country.
The MDP, too, however, is not free of rebellion, but it is both fewer and muted in the party than in the opposition or from within the rebellious allies. Near-unilaterally, Gayoom’s MRM acquiesced, or resigned, to the reality of what at best could be termed as friendly contests between the MDP and other allies.
After stalling and procrastinating with the AP, the MDP struck a deal for six of the 87 parliamentary seats. As if to drive a hard bargain, Nasheed had dismissed the AP olive-branch, stating the party could not ask MDP nominees, elected through constituency-wise primaries, to withdraw or retire. Some of those now in the AP constituencies are said to be using the argument against the leadership. Until the campaign picked up momentum all across, it also raised questions about the return of MDP’s unilateralism in coalition affairs as in the past (2008-12).
Yet, more than the MDP, it’s Yameen’s PPM-NPC combine, as also Speaker Gasim’s JP that are said to be bigger victims of rebellion. This was after the two sides belatedly concluded constituency-adjustments at the last-minute, though the MDP’s decision to go it alone was known for a relatively long period. Their official candidates were either expected to withdraw or retire as the case may be, but at least some of them are said to be remaining in the fray as independents.
With Yameen back in possible circulation — his health permitting — Nasheed told an MDP rally that Gasim is falling into Yameen’s trap. If it is also a reflection of MDP’s last-mile concerns, it is not without reason. Both Yameen and Gasim are good poll strategists with formidable resources at their command, against the MDP, which has traditionally counted on Nasheed’s charisma on the one hand and the perceived negativity attaching to their political rivals since the first multi-party democratic polls of 2008.
Gasim in at present facing the political ignominy of third wife Aishath Nahula, who is at present Transport Minister, and politically much-travelled JP chairman Ali Waheed, now all-important Tourism Minister, swearing by the Solih leadership — and by extension, the MDP-led combine. Solih’s Vice President Faisal Naseem, also of the JP, has also been campaigning for select coalition candidates, including Gayoom’s son and MRM candidate, Faaris Maumoon, in Male constituency — but clearly indicating his opposition to Yameen’s PPM-PNC combine.
The parliamentary polls may not upset Maldives’ relations with the closest, Indian neighbour. However, the presence of Yameen’s aides at the anti-India protest, organised by his estranged one-time Home Minister Umar Naseer, ahead of the recent Male visit of External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, should not be overlooked.
Though muted, the political oppositions’ reservations to Sushma’s visit during poll-time in both countries, most noticeably in Maldives, could have its ramifications for bilateral ties in a small way, if the MDP were to lose the parliamentary polls. Though Sushma Swaraj made it a point to call on Speaker Gasim Ibrahim, uncharacteristically for him, he is not known to have commented on the meeting to local newsmen, who are always at his elbow for something sensational, if not outright controversial.
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
N. Sathiya Moorthy is a policy analyst and commentator based in Chennai.
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