Would the recent indictment of Donald Trump impact his re-election prospects?
The recent indictment of former US President Donald Trump has grabbed global attention and is fueling curiosity both at home and abroad regarding its implications for the former President’s re-election prospects. Perhaps there are equal concerns about the impact of Trump’s arraignment and possible conviction on the Republican Party.
The indictment of Trump in the Classified Documents Probe lays out 37 federal charges against the former President, including illegally retaining documents pertaining to national security from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and American agencies and concealing documents to obstruct justice. The Justice Department Special Counsel Jack Smith recently defended his team’s work and reiterated the seriousness of the offence committed by the former president and explained the importance of punishing the acts which are detrimental to the US national security. Donald Trump, on the other hand, is pleading not guilty and has distanced himself from the accusations. He has also blamed the left-wing politicians in the country for witch-hunting and attempting to weaken his presidential campaign unfairly.
The Justice Department Special Counsel Jack Smith recently defended his team’s work and reiterated the seriousness of the offence committed by the former president and explained the importance of punishing the acts which are detrimental to the US national security.This is, however, not the first time Trump is being indicted. He was indicted earlier for arranging a large payment sum to an adult-film actress to suppress a sexual encounter she had with him in 2006. However, what makes this indictment different is that the latest classified documents probe is the first indictment on national security grounds. Amidst the ongoing indictment procedures against Donald Trump, a prominent question being widely discussed revolves around his potential eligibility to run in the upcoming elections. It is important to note that the only requirements for the US president include being a natural-born US citizen who is over 35 years of age and has been a US resident for more than 14 years. The requirements do not explicitly mention anything about criminal charges. In the unlikely event that Trump is made to sign a legal bond anytime soon, there is a possibility that his freedom to travel as a former President may be restricted, potentially hampering his campaign efforts. However, it is unlikely that the trials related to these charges will take place soon, allowing Trump to focus on his candidacy for now. In essence, any obstacles to his candidacy would likely be practical rather than legal in nature. The concept of travel restrictions and in some cases the conditions of bail are decided by two major factors, the likelihood of a person fleeing the justice system or the possibility of physical harm. The former is extremely unlikely. Moreover, Trump is mostly guarded by US secret service at all points, making the possibility of physical harm very low as well. This implies that the court has no reason to impose conditions on Donald Trump’s bail and he is free to engage in political campaign for now. The case involving hush payments against Trump is expected to go to trial in March 2024, followed by the classified documents case, which will be heard later. This timeframe allows Trump some time before either of these hearings take place. When it comes to the classified documents probe, after a judicial review , Judge Cannon will schedule a Motion to Dismiss. Donald Trump’s lawyers would try to get the charges against him tossed away even before a jury is introduced, whereas prosecutors would try to keep the charges active. Trump’s legal team would consider the initial dismissal of the case to be an ideal outcome and a crucial step in the legal proceedings.
The case involving hush payments against Trump is expected to go to trial in March 2024, followed by the classified documents case, which will be heard later.It is noteworthy that former president Donald Trump continues to enjoy wide support among Republican voter base. As such, most of Trump’s competitors empathise with the anger of common Republicans for the “unfair” treatment being meted out to Trump, while portraying themselves as relevant alternatives. Furthermore, in the same weak when the indictments against Trump were announced, three additional candidates emerged, expressing their potential candidacy. The influx of politicians declaring their intention to run signifies that there are individuals positioning themselves as viable alternatives to Trump. Although the President does not have any legal bars from contesting the election if found guilty of these offences, it does not mean that Trump’s candidature will not be impacted. If a trial does find Donald Trump guilty of misconduct on these grounds and sentences him to a jail term, the reputation of the former President will almost certainly take a hit. Although it is not illegal for an individual sentenced to prison from governing the nation within US legal provisions, the prospects of winning become low. However, this is a constitutionally grey area in the US and there are no clear answers to what will happen if someone serving a prison term does win the election. The most logical course of action at that point will be to put the remainder of the sentence at least on hold so that the president can discharge his or her duties. That will most likely be followed by the president officially pardoning himself as was promised by another jailed candidate Eugene V Debs during his candidature in the 1920 US Presidential election. These circumstances throw up a natural question; would Ron DeSantis gain an edge over Trump as the Republican Presidential Candidate? Although recent polls indicate that DeSantis may be catching up with Biden as his potential opponent for the presidential bid in 2024, Trump still commands largser sway over the Republican voter base. The indictments against the former President don’t seem to have impacted his image severely amongst the Republicans, with nearly 80 percent of them either being indifferent to the allegations or having an increased support for Trump after the allegations. Donald Trump has been successful in portraying the legal backlash as an unfair move by his political enemies which has resulted in him maintaining his popularity amongst Republicans. This has strengthened the narrative that Donald Trump has a good chance of winning against Biden in the 2024 national elections in the US. However, it is too early to rule out DeSantis’ chances of being the next Republican Presidential Candidate as uncertainty plagues Trump’s candidature and image. Irrespective of who wins the Republican presidential nomination, the outcome of the US election will be the final battle between the Republicans and incumbent US President and Democrat Joe Biden, who recently announced his run for a second term as the US President.
The influx of politicians declaring their intention to run signifies that there are individuals positioning themselves as viable alternatives to Trump.Amidst a legal mess in the US political space, concerns around President Biden’s health and fitness have added to the mix. The Washington post recently published polls to depict US citizens’ concerns around Biden physical fitness and his ability to lead the nation effectively should he win. Nearly 68 percent of the voters feel that Biden is too old to run for a second term and 44 percent saying the same for his predecessor. However, in general, people believe that Trump is sharper and mentally more capable to run for a second term as compared to Biden. Biden is also battling low approval ratings which have resulted from certain policies that have not gone down too well with the public. The US Presidential election of 2024 is going to be close and complicated with three major stakeholders. Joe Biden, whose leadership is navigating the challenges of age and public approval; Donald Trump who is grappling with a legal battle that hangs in the balance leaving the nation on the edge of anticipation and finally; the wild card in Ron DeSantis, whose unapologetically anti-woke stance and far-right learnings provoke intense scrutiny and questioning from the entire nation.
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Vivek Mishra is a Fellow with ORF’s Strategic Studies Programme. His research interests include America in the Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific and Asia-Pacific regions, particularly ...
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