Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hashed out a ceasefire agreement for northwest Syria to bring some relief to 3.5 million Syrians fleeing the bombs of President Bashar al-Assad government as it pounded the region in the bitter cold. The Syrian Arab Army or the SAA had intensified the offensive in December that led a million internally displaced Syrians on a run a second time creating an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.
Over the last two months, the Syrian regime made significant territorial gains and secured the supply lines of M4 and M5 highways defeating jihadist-led rebels of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former Al-Qaeda affiliate which controls Idlib. It is sometimes supported by Turkey, which was meant to contain the group according to the Sochi agreement signed between Russia, Turkey, and Iran in 2018.
However, the advances of Syrian forces were halted by Turkish troops determined to avenge the killings of 35 Turkish soldiers in one air strike- a total of 60 Turkish soldiers lost their lives. Turkey claimed it killed hundreds in the Syrian army, and while the loss of troops was the provocation for Turkey to militarily attack Assad, the leading Turkish concern was to somehow stop yet another influx of Syrian refugees. Turkey is already home to 3 million Syrians, the largest number of refugees in any country since the Syrian war began in 2011.
But despite what appears to be a Turkish victory- stopping the Syrian army and Iran backed-militias from taking over Idlib entirely, Bashar al-Assad has been slowly but steadily reclaiming more and more territory. The strategy to lay siege, bomb the daylights out of rebel-areas, force them to sign de-escalation agreements and move to Idlib as the final destination, had already worked in isolating most anti-regime Syrians. In this last chapter of fighting, backed by Russian air power and Iran’s foot soldiers, the Syrian government regained swathes of lost land bit by bit. The ceasefire signed between Russia and Turkey just calls for holding fire, not returning the territory to rebels and still leaves room for the regime and the Russians to target the jihadists of HTS. Idlib has been and will continue to be an impossible conflict for either Assad or Erdogan to win. Russia- an ally to both plays a crucial role.
Bashar al-Assad has repeatedly said that he wants to reclaim all of Syria, and whilst he has been successful in winning back much of it, only if by brute force, a lot is at risk if he tried to push further on Idlib. Firstly, the Syrian army- even with Iran’s militias including war-hardened Hezbollah, are not strong enough to take on the might of the Turkish army- the second largest in NATO, and certainly not without Russian support. Russia, beyond a point, is not interested in irking Turkey, a new ally it is nurturing. Putin has worked hard on luring Erdogan away from America and swiftly bringing him closer to Moscow.
Erdogan had, of course, thought the rebel groups it backed would win the day in the Syrian uprising. That didn’t happen. Turkey-backed rebels of the National Liberation Forces (or the NLF) have lost the war against Assad. NLF is seen to be fractious on ideological and political matters along with being militarily weak. But Erdogan has invested way too much in the rebels and his ideology of political Islam to leave the arena empty handed. He uses the humanitarian crisis in Idlib to drum up international support. During this offensive, Turkey even transported some refugees to the border with Greece as a threat to Europe- either accept more refugees or back him militarily on the ground against Assad. However, even Turkey beyond a point, does not want to irk Russia.
In 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian jet causing a major breakdown of ties between Istanbul and Moscow. Putin briskly imposed a trade embargo on Turkey, inflicting a loss of $7 billion. Turkey's tomato farmers bore the biggest brunt as exports to Russia fell from $260 million in 2015 to $900,000 a year later. The losses were heavy and hard to absorb and prompted a decision by Erdogan to re-align rather than confront since Erdogan has come to rely on Putin on a range of matters. There have been trade and military deals, and Putin has turned into an ally, someone who hates America just as much. Erdogan has blamed the US for the coup attempt against him in 2016 whereas Putin was one of the first to offer him support. Putin has often also worked out face-savers for Erdogan, the recent ceasefire being one of them.
Russia is, in fact, trying to bring Turkey and the regime to the negotiating table. On the day the ceasefire was signed, Assad hinted at wanting to improve relations with Turkey in an interview with Russian TV. At Moscow’s insistence, the talk of reactivating the Adana Agreement has picked up. The original Adana agreement in 1998 put an end to the use by the PKK, the anti-Ankara Kurdish guerrilla force, of Syrian territory as a base. In return for improved ties and trade, the Syrian regime of Hafez al-Assad moved against the PKK, expelled its leader, Abdullah Ocalan, and crucially, gave the right to Turkey to “harry and pursue” PKK elements into Syrian territory if needed, up to 5km deep. It was deactivated after Turkey started to support Syrian rebels. But the regime has recently offered to return to it were the Turks to offer their support to the regime instead of rebels in Idlib.
It is hard to see the Turks giving in over Idlib, even with that offer, which for one thing ignores the role of the United States in eastern Syria. It is equally hard to see Assad restraining from attacking the jihadist rebels and using their presence to muster support for his regime in the rest of the country. Turkey and Russia’s intertwined economic relationship and opposition to America may ensure that Erdogan and Assad do not ever come to a full-blown war, but the absence of war does not mean peace for Idlib.
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Anchal Vohra was a Fellow at ORF. She writes on contemporary developments in West Asia and on foreign policy.
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