New political developments in Maldives

As has become his wont, Maldivian President Ibrahim Solih once again thanked India for its ‘continued support for development projects’ in diverse domains such as infrastructure development, community empowerment, capacity-building, healthcare sector advancement, sports cooperation, and tourism. In the same vein, he also said that ‘little will be left to be done after these projects are completed’. Solih received India’s Minister of State (MoS) External Affairs, V Muraleedharan, at southern Addu City after they had inaugurated land reclamation work and the expansion of the Gan International Airport (GIA), originally a Second World War base of the Royal Air Force (RAF), United Kingdom. Both projects are funded by India under the High Impact Community Development Projects scheme of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). The airport expansion, in particular, would help expand the Gan’s capacity to 1.5 million tourists a year, and help ‘reshape the country's economic landscape, facilitating the establishment of a robust economic hub in the southern region’. At the meeting with the visitor, the President expressed heartfelt condolences over the Odisha train tragedy. On larger issues, he said that the agreements signed between the Maldives and India during MoS Muraleedharan's visit will foster greater collaboration and strengthen the ties between the two countries. Reiterating the point in practical terms, at Muraleedharan’s meeting with Foreign Minister Abdulla Shahid in the capital Malé a day later, the two sides signed 10 more projects for funding under the US$ 100-million additional assistance given by India.

The airport expansion, in particular, would help expand the Gan’s capacity to 1.5 million tourists a year, and help ‘reshape the country's economic landscape, facilitating the establishment of a robust economic hub in the southern region’.

Muraleedharan, speaking at the Gan Inaugural function, said that India’s own development was inseparable from the rest of the world, particularly the country’s neighbours. “Maldives is a key partner for India in the Indian Ocean region (IOR),” he said and quoted Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on how the “India-Maldives partnership is not only working in the interests of the citizens of both countries but is actually a source of peace, stability and prosperity for the entire region”. He said that the bilateral relationship has achieved new heights under the leadership of PM Modi and President Solih, and added that India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy has acted in concert with the ‘India First Policy’ of Maldives, to strengthen the bilateral ties between the two countries. In a way, Solih’s southern visit is one more in the series, a part of his long stretched-out re-election campaign in polls, scheduled for September. Speaking at official and political functions in Addu, he said that the nation’s GDP would hit MVR 177 billion in five years. Having ordered salary increases for different sections of the employees in the public sector in the past year, he promised to hike disability allowance this month and include higher senior citizens’ assistance in his poll manifesto. According to official figures, with six more months in the fiscal year, only MVR 136 million is left in the popular Aasandha health insurance scheme against a budgeted MVR 900 million, reflecting the increasing popularity of the government’s health insurance scheme.

Complex politics

Both the senior citizens’ allowance scheme and the Aasandha are legacy projects launched by MDP Chief Mohammed Nasheed when he was the nation’s first multi-party democracy President, between 2008–12. The two childhood friends and comrade-in-arms became increasingly estranged after Solih defeated Nasheed in the MDP primaries for the presidential nomination, for the September elections.

In a way, Solih’s southern visit is one more in the series, a part of his long stretched-out re-election campaign in polls, scheduled for September.

This has meant that politics in the archipelago nation has become not only more complex. On the one hand, Nasheed continues to be elected president of the ruling party even while the MDP parliamentary group finally decided to remove Nasheed as Speaker of the 87-member Parliament. This is after the party had moved a no-trust motion against Deputy Speaker Eva Abdulla, incidentally a cousin of Nasheed, when she and 11 other MDP parliamentarians, including one who was earlier sacked, quit the party to float a new party, ‘The Democrats’, that too with the intention to field a presidential candidate against Solih and others. On the decision to vote out Nasheed, MDP parliamentary group leader Mohamed Aslam said that ‘there is only so much we can.take.. Nasheed has lost our faith...He pushes his personal agenda’. The separate motions seeking the removal of Nasheed and Eva have respectively secured 56 and 50 signatures of MDP parliamentarians against a simple majority of 44 required to vote out each of them. The government group has since contested Speaker Nasheed’s decision to remove the vote against Eva until the general purposes committee of the House empowered to schedule proceedings is reconstituted along with others, to reflect the exit of 12 MDP members. For its part, the new party submitted the membership forms of 3,560 persons against the mandated minimum of 3,000, within days of announcing their decision. The Elections Commission (EC) is yet to formalise the registration of the new party. However, to qualify for state funding, a political party should have 10,000 members. After investigating  some membership forms submitted by The Democrats that was leaked online, the EC has since announced that it was not the source. In a separate development, the EC has decided to appeal the civil court’s stay of its decision to de-register the Maumoon Reform Movement (MRM) of former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom and headed by his son Faaris, after the membership reportedly fell below 3,000.

After investigating  some membership forms submitted by The Democrats that was leaked online, the EC has since announced that it was not the source.

Chagos issue and rally

In between, the ‘Nasheed group’ signed up with other Opposition parties, to move no-trust motions against attorney-general Ibrahim Riffath and Foreign Minister Abdulla Shahid. Given the numbers, the two cabinet ministers are expected to survive the motions. Parliament is to take up all four motions in the chronological order of their submission to the House—Riffath, Shahid, Eva, and Nasheed, against whom the motion has yet to be filed. Whether or not Nasheed is now voted out as Speaker, his continuance as MDP president may have become untenable, especially with the party’s national council dominated by the Solih camp. In a further twist to the tale, The Democrats also joined hands with the PPM-PNC combine of jailed former President Abdulla Yameen and a few other Opposition parties and leaders, in a rally protesting the government’s position on the ITLOS verdict on the ‘International Maritime Boundary Line’ (IMBL) in the Chagos Archipelago, between Maldives and Mauritius. Speakers at the rally included MNP chief Col Mohamed Nazim (retd) and Yameen’s one-time ministerial aide, Umar Naseer, both presidential hopefuls, Dr Mohamed Munavvar and Aishath Azima Shukoor.Taking back ‘Maldivian territory’ is now among the points for accomplishment in the first 30 days, in Col Nazim’s poll manifesto, the first to be released by any candidate. The irony of it was that the PPM-PNC host of the rally had named Yameen as its presidential candidate. The Democrats too are firm in their decision to field theirs. However, Jumhooree Party (JP) founder Gasim Ibrahim, who too is in the fray and whose party was represented in the joint Opposition news conference, pulled out of the rally, declaring that it won’t help matters. Gasim was said to be peeved at Nasheed camp’s U-turn after declaring support for his ticket, but the JP has since clarified that they will have a coalition with Nasheed, if necessary. In a TV interview earlier, Gasim had said that this government too was following its predecessors in targeting his Villa Group’s businesses, which has since suffered after the constitutionally-mandated Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) stalled the government selling a lagoon to them. Incidentally, the government has offered to present to Parliament’s ‘241 National Security Committee, President Solih’s November 2022 letter to Mauritian Prime Minister on the IMBL issue after panel chair and MDP parliamentary group leader Mohamed Aslam expressed his intention for his panel to require the same. According to laws passed by the Opposition-controlled Parliament when Nasheed was President, prior House approval is required for the same.

Tactical back-tracking

‘India Out’ placards were shown at the ‘Chagos rally’ and both the PPM-PNC combine and The Democrats blamed the government for trying to ‘sabotage’ the rally. The latter promptly denied it. It is, thus, interesting to note that the very same PPM-PNC combine, whose leader Yameen had floated the campaign in the first place and also sought to sustain it as a presidential poll agenda, has resorted to tactical back-tracking on the subject..

Possibly anticipating de-registration by the Election Commission, Yameen promptly paused the campaign.

This owes to the presence of The Democrats in the Chagos rally and their godfather Nasheed’s strong criticism of the Yameen camp’s ‘India Out’ campaign at its peak. His pressure was among the causes for the Solih government to ban the campaign. Possibly anticipating de-registration by the Election Commission, Yameen promptly paused the campaign. Incidentally, the PPM-PNC combine is yet to announce a viable alternative if Yameen, who is jailed in a money-laundering case for 11 years, is unable to secure freedom  before nominations close on 3 August. He will be in trouble if the trial court hands down an adverse verdict in the third, pending case before nominations close, but with not enough time for him to obtain a possible acquittal from the higher judiciary. The Supreme Court has since acquitted Yameen in the first of three cases. According to reports, the PPM senate is working on a  plan-B if Yameen is unable to contest, but the leadership is unyielding. A clearer picture is expected to emerge next month, closer to the opening of nominations on 23 July, when the progress in Yameen’s court cases will also be known.

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N Sathiya Moorthy is a policy analyst and political commentator based in Chennai

• Neighbourhood
• India
• Development projects
• India-Maldives relations
• Maldives
• politics
• presidential elections
• Rally protests
• Tourism

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