The scrapping of Article 370 and the bifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir exposed the internal contradictions and differences of the opposition.
The solution to the long standing Kashmir problem through a presidential order on 5 August 2019 bears the bold stamp of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is known for his quick decisions taken in utmost secrecy that have both elements of shock and surprise.
At the same time, Modi’s political style is to catch political opponents napping so that they neither have the time to respond nor are in a position to launch a quick counter-attack. Like the de-monetisation decision, the scrapping of Article 370 and 35 A of the Constitution and bifurcating the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir into two union territories of Ladakh and Jammu and Kashmir, were steps that stumped the entire opposition and exposed them by bringing their internal contradictions and differences into the open.
Whether the 5 August decisions would deliver the stated goals and the desired results as claimed by the Prime Minister in his address to the nation on August 8 or not, is inconsequential for Modi because the decision was primarily taken for political considerations. It has become popular with the people at large, giving him and his party an electoral advantage.
Unprecedented step of turning the state of J&K into two union territories by passing the bill through two houses of parliament is undemocratic in many ways but Modi’s address to the nation that once the normalcy is restored in Kashmir and the Union Territory is on the path of development, it could be granted full statehood again, is very intriguing and curious. It is futile to look for a rationale or a logic that can explain the decision of bifurcating the state and the pronouncement that good behaviour could result in the reinstatement of the status of a state.
One must candidly admit that the Modi 2.0 government did what the BJP and its earlier avtar-Bharatiya Jan Sangh- had been promising on record for over five decades.
Giving the status of a Union Territory to Jammu and Kashmir, that has a land mass of more than 42,000 square kms and approximately 1.22 crore people cohabiting it, speaks volumes of the wisdom about the decision makers who decided to accord J&K a status that is enjoyed by Delhi and Puducherry.
One must candidly admit that the Modi 2.0 government did what the BJP and its earlier avtar-Bharatiya Jan Sangh- had been promising on record for over five decades. Whether one agrees with the scrapping of the Article 370 or not, is not important but it must be accepted that Modi has done what his predecessor Atal Bihari had shelved for lack of consensus among the allies in the NDA and not having enough popular mandate.
The way demonetisation proved to be an economic disaster but a politically rewarding one, the division of the state into two union territories of Ladakh and Jammu & Kashmir and ending the special status of the erstwhile state that had acceded to the Indian Union in 1947, may prove to be a disaster in the years to come.
At the outset, it must be said that entire act of the BJP-led NDA government is political and is somewhat comparable to the demonetisation of 8 November 2016 when Modi had caught the nation unawares and had plunged the nation economy into a crisis whose after-effects people and economy continue to face till date. Like in 2016, the 5 August 2019 decision has a pattern of disruption, demolition, shifting of goalposts and turning into an electoral asset.
The way demonetisation proved to be an economic disaster but a politically rewarding one, the division of the state into two union territories of Ladakh and Jammu & Kashmir and ending the special status of the erstwhile state that had acceded to the Indian Union in 1947, may prove to be a disaster in the years to come. However it t is going to help the BJP win not only the coming assembly elections in states of Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand etc. but will also help to surpass former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s record win of over 400 Lok Sabha seats in 1984 parliamentary elections held after the tragic assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.
The way it has been done is obviously democratically wrong but then Modi, nor his closest political colleague Union Home Minister Amit Shah or even the BJP or its political and moral mentor-the Rashtriya Swyamsevak Sangh (RSS)- have ever been bothered or concerned over democratic niceties or judicial proprieties.
Leaders like Farooq and Umar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti and hundreds of others who stood with India though thick and thin have been made irrelevant thus giving militancy a justification.
The core team of the Prime Minister that put the entire act together consisting of the Home Minister and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, planned the action and kept it under wraps, leaving people guessing and speculating for a few days.
Beginning with the surge of troops and security forces, the cancellation of the Amartnath Yatra and the smaller pilgrimage, the Machail Mata Yatra in Jammu, vacation of foreign and domestic tourists from the state, closure of schools, clearing of hostels and ending with house arrests of opposition Kashmiri leaders including former chief minister Farooq and Umar Abdullah, Mehbooba Mufti along with others, was planned and done to disrobe the people of Kashmir of their democratic rights.
A majority of the population in Ladakh and Jammu regions is happy celebrating the Centre’s move, relieved even as they were disgruntled over the militancy and violence in Kashmir all these years. Words of former IAS officer Shah Faesal, who resigned to become a political activist, are a warning and needs to be taken seriously. A “New age of indignation” has begun as the step is a “slap on face of those who sought Kashmir resolution under Constitution”, he told the media. Leaders like Farooq and Umar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti and hundreds of others who stood with India though thick and thin have been made irrelevant thus giving militancy a justification.
While the overall impact and outcome of the move is hidden in an unpredictable future, one fact that can be stated is that the Modi-Shah duo has brilliantly diverted the country’s attention from pressing issues of the economy.
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Satish Misra was Senior Fellow at ORF. He has been a journalist for many years. He has a PhD in International Affairs from Humboldt University ...
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