India's rebuttal to the invite for attending the two-day conclave on China's Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in Beijing was probably a big mistake. Because this project will be a very big one encompassing 65 percent of the world's population and passing through 60 or more countries. With twenty nine heads of states attending it and with 100 countries participating, the project is an unstoppable venture and will throw up along the way many opportunities for business especially in construction, power, iron, steel and cement, in which many Indian companies could have participated profitably.

It is true that India has genuine reasons for boycotting the conclave as it regards the project as a violation of India's sovereignty over Kashmir and the building of CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor) through the disputed Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) territory. But had it attended, the Indian delegation could have had better chances of initiating a 'meaningful dialogue' from inside.

OBOR is the grand economic plan of China, currently experiencing an economic slowdown and overcapacity in around 21 sectors. This project would allow China to build infrastructure in Central Asia, South Asia and Africa which will allow China's steel industry to revive. According to the European Union Chamber of Commerce, China will be able to supply around 30 million tons of steel a year to the ongoing projects. Many American companies are also lining up to get the contracts.

In 2014, Chinese engineering and construction companies ordered $400 million worth of equipment from GE for OBOR installations overseas. In 2016, according to the New York Times, the total order for GE was $2.3 billion and it plans to bid for an additional $7 billion in orders for natural gas turbines and other power equipment in the next 18 months. The General Electric and Caterpillar, the earth moving construction giant, is also involved.

There will be many more contracts as China promises to spend around $1 trillion in building bridges, ports, roads and railways. There would be a global construction movement with the huge investment promised by China. Its enormity will unfold over the next few years and the landscape through which OBOR will, in all probability, change significantly and Chinese companies, like Xuzhou Construction Machinery Group, will be the biggest beneficiary.

Needless to say, the increase in trade resulting from better connectivity will make the people around OBOR prosperous and it will lead to development which will promote trade and investment. That is what China wants. It will increase consumer spending across many countries. In the past, its power was derived from trade and investment and OBOR means an increase in business prospects. Perhaps, there could be a decline in terrorism as well. The Chinese do believe in peace because it promotes business which will allow them to attain economic supremacy of the world.

The increase in trade resulting from better connectivity will make the people around OBOR prosperous and it will lead to development which will promote trade and investment.

In the South Asian region, China is already a very important investor. And, all except Bhutan went to the meeting. They will probably incur debt to Chinese companies during the building of infrastructure like the government of Sri Lanka during the building of Hambantota port, but that is their bilateral issue and not ours. The main thing to note is that the Chinese and not Indian firms will become more prominent in the neighbourhood, cashing in on their willingness and urgency to join OBOR. India's isolation will be complete if the Chinese manage to win the goodwill of the people also with the rapid development of infrastructure that will create jobs. India will remain on the periphery and unpopular.

The Chinese could have helped build India's infrastructure also because we need it badly and it is not happening fast enough. India and China were very closely aligned in the past BRICS meetings and were instrumental in setting up the AIIB and New Development Bank which will facilitate infrastructure financing for the developing world. The sudden U-turn in the Indo-Chinese relations is thus quite surprising.

India's efforts and vision of building infrastructure and increasing trade in Africa also stands altered as China's presence is there in a big way. A lot has been written about China's new colonialism in Africa and how it is digging for uranium in remote places by bringing in their own manpower and establishing Chinese townships in those areas. Their investment in Africa remains unmatched and their footprint there is larger than that of any other country.

India's efforts and vision of building infrastructure and increasing trade in Africa also stands altered as China's presence is there in a big way.

Looking at it from the business point of view purely, it would have been better if the advisors in the government favoured India to join the OBOR meeting because though the issue on which India has refused is important for us, others see it only as an offshoot of a long standing spat between India and Pakistan.

China is very keen for India to join because nowhere in the world is there such a huge market for Chinese goods and investment. Thus if and when world trade picks up through better infrastructure, more goods from China would come to India via Nepal. That is one reason why it is so keen to build the China-Nepal cross border rail link that may cost up to $8 billion and was inked at the recent conclave. Open borders with Nepal will facilitate the trade of Chinese goods to India.

As has been reiterated by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the two highly populous ancient civilisations have much in common and need to remain connected as they are the two main rising economic powers in the world today. Russia has joined in the project and would have been happy to see India at the table because the three of them together are important for challenging the hegemony of the western world.

China would need Indian engineers, labour, software personnel as their own labour shortages have already surfaced and wages are rising. There has to be a good understanding between the two giants because China has advanced technology, money and India has skilled and technical manpower. Many jobs could have been found for our own technical personnel in the project and many Indian construction companies would have got more business. In a mega project like OBOR, there are gains everywhere as it may have a global transformational aspect like no other project before.

• Financial Markets
• China
• Belt and Road Initiative
• CPEC
• OBOR

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