Boris Tadić, President of Serbia from 2004 to 2012, and now a full member of Club de Madrid speaks with Sunjoy Joshi, Chairman, Observer Research Foundation, on the sidelines of the Kigali Global Dialogue in Rwanda’s capital city. Below is the full transcript and here is the link to the video: Sunjoy Joshi: There is something happening in Europe. When you were President, Serbia applied for membership of the European Union. Six years since then, has something fundamentally changed in Europe, how do you read the current situation?  Boris Tadić: I can only say that Europe is not looking like it was 6 years ago or 15 years ago. But the European Union is still a more pleasant place for living in the world taking into account the protection of individuals, freedom of speech and all the freedoms that are important for human beings. But, things are not going in the right direction, according to my analysis. We are going to be even more challenged in the future regarding crossroads in mankind’s history. Six years ago, China did not take such a strong role in the world economy. We didn’t have experience with Brexit or populist movements in Europe. Even in my country, towards Turkey, we are having a movement of populists who are dividing the people of the European Union and putting many European countries in a very difficult situation. It is very easy to be populist nowadays especially if you take into account the crisis with the migrants. Europe is not the strongest phenomenon in the Western world. Europe is very vulnerable. Only 5 million migrants were trying to come into Europe. Europe has 500 million people. Just one percent of that number destabilised structured institutions. This is crystal clear evidence of vulnerability. Migration crisis is exploding within the body and heart of Europe. So many prejudices and stereotypes. I am expecting the new generation of EU leaders to be very serious in creating real reform about dismantling stereotypes and creating a EU ready to absorb new initiatives — even migrations that are a natural outcome of the global politics. EU is facing demographic challenges but EU is refusing people who like to come to Europe. This is controversial. Something is going very wrong. Joshi: Do you think the EU project is worth it? Is it worth being part of EU in the current state?  Tadić: That was the dream of my political generation. I was doing everything possible to bring Serbia closer to the EU and we reached during my tenure candidate status which provided so many resources for my country. But, nowadays when we are negotiating about every single chapter, that process is not going so fast and not so productive. Even French president Macron has said that we are not able to agree on who is going to lead the European Union. These kind of statements are dangerous. It shows that Macron is thinking more about his own country rather than the wider European Union. It is possible to take that kind of position but this is not helpful in terms of the future. Ours is some kind of asymptotic approach where we are getting closer and closer but not becoming member states of the EU. This is very helpful for the EU members who have expansion fatigue. They don’t have to explain to the electorate but this does not help vulnerable regions (like us) who have been involved in many conflicts and we are the connection between EU and Turkey and Asia. I have a feeling that there is a lack of strategic thinkers here. This is about the definition of Western Balkans, about European identity, what kind of relationship is Europe going to have with Turkey, with Russia, with China, with India — not just with the United States.

It is very easy to be populist nowadays especially if you take into account the crisis with the migrants. Europe is not the strongest phenomenon in the Western world. Europe is very vulnerable.

Joshi: You talk about Serbia as a gateway of Europe into Asia. How serious is Europe? Europe has been looking more and more towards the Atlantic in the past. At the same time, there is China at the door. There are deep seated divisions about where China is headed. Serbia is part of the 16+1 arrangement. How do you see China’s role? Integrative or divisive?  Tadić: There are different views in the European Union. Some politicians consider it a divisive force, some consider China an integrative force which is helping some underdeveloped Eastern and Central European areas of Europe develop like the rest of the Western world. I see China’s role very positively. Politicians who are accusing China of making new divisions in Europe are expecting some equilibrium or balanced politics and investment. Those kinds of arguments are not very helpful. Five years ago, nobody was talking about China. Today, everybody is. Chinese Embassy in Serbia was bombed in 1991. Now, nobody is even able to think about such a scenario in the future. India is right behind China in terms of development but not so much talk about it in Europe although it’s going to be a global power in the next decade. It is important to understand what is going to be the final outcome of the political and economic relations we have in the global arena. Europe was more oriented towards the United States. NATO was basically a security organisation but now the situation is changing. No one is able to predict what is going to be the future of European Union countries in the next 5 or 10 years. Things are becoming unpredictable. Joshi: There’s a trade war going on. There’s a technology war going on between the US and China. Countries are being asked to choose what kind of a global order and technology order they would prefer. What do you make of the choice that’s being posed? Tadić: We are defining ourself between East and West. We are the gateway to Asia, historically speaking, regarding our geopolitical situation. We would like to become a member state of the EU but that does not mean we cannot be in a good relationship with China, with Russia, with India. This is exactly our position. Even the government that came after my term is following this strategic orientation. I signed a strategic partnership with China in 2009. I see the benefit of that. Today we are a club of 17+1 countries which is a project of Chinese investment in infrastructure. This is a positive trend. China is not interfering in the matters of other countries. China is investing in One Belt One Road for the benefit of all partners. Many politicians are having prejudices regarding Chinese role in EU but I hope that their (China’s) initiative is going to be successful. Serbia wants to have normal strategic relations with countries including India while wanting to be member state of the EU.

We can take into consideration what Donald Trump has been saying over the last few years and understand the strategic meaning. What is making me even more concerned is that we are living in a trade war, in the middle of the Iran conflict, we are living in a totally insecure world

Joshi: There is talk about European security architecture. Is that one part of the reforms you talk about?  Tadić: When I asked them whether this is going to be against the NATO, they said no way. They said their strategic orientation is to be involved in the NATO structure. I don’t know if that’s true or not especially in the context of the future. The European Union has 500 million people altogether…without armed forces. Without armed forces, you cannot be a global power, especially without Navy. After Brexit, we can see many divisions. Many European countries are not able to compete in the global market — even Germany which is the strongest economy in Europe. Germany with 80 million people is not able to compete with India, China and the United States. If you are going to ask me whether European Union is going to work on enhancing military structure, I would say probably yes. United States will follow that very closely. Economic relations between some EU countries and Russia is different from political relations between them. You can see thousands of companies from EU working in Russia. EU is pretty dependent on import of Russian energy. Not easy to find alternative solutions. We have to take into consideration reality. We can take into consideration what Donald Trump has been saying over the last few years and understand the strategic meaning. What is making me even more concerned is that we are living in a trade war, in the middle of the Iran conflict, we are living in a totally insecure world. Everyone is trying to find a more stable position for the future.

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Transcription and photo by Nikhila Natarajan.

• Privacy & Data Protection
• China
• European Union
• Americas
• Boris Tadic
• Brexit
• Donald Trump
• Kigali Global Dialogue
• NATO
• One Belt One Road

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