Maldives: Promises galore ahead of the polls

With the second-round run-off vote for the nation’s presidency on Saturday, 30 September, Maldives is faced with another nationwide vote. This is because the Parliament has directed the Election Commission (EC) to hold a referendum on changing the governance system, from the present presidential form to a parliamentary scheme. The EC has fixed 29 October for the referendum, a day shy of the Parliament-fixed deadline—but Parliament’s session, which was to finalise the phraseology after the EC said there was no clarity as yet on the exact question to be voted upon, lacked quorum.

The last time a referendum was held on a system change was in 2007, during the drafting of the current Constitution; the nation voted overwhelmingly in favour of continuing with the presidential government, 62-38 percent. This time, the referendum was seen as a fait accompli for the breakaway Democrats backing incumbent President Ibrahim Solih of the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) after the latter, with a massive parliamentary presence and majority, had cleared the other’s urgent resolution.

The EC has fixed 29 October for the referendum, a day shy of the Parliament-fixed deadline—but Parliament’s session, which was to finalise the phraseology after the EC said there was no clarity as yet on the exact question to be voted upon, lacked quorum.

Ahead of the Parliament resolution and after the first-round results, the Democrats had declared that ‘partnering with the MDP is not an option’. After Parliament, or People’s Majlis, cleared the party’s referendum resolution, the Democrats declared neutrality in the run-off vote. Solih and Mohammed ‘Anni’ Nasheed, the Democrats’ founder, Parliament Speaker, and the nation’s first democratic President, have met and ‘discussed the political situation in the country’ where Solih claimed to have ‘appealed for support’ but Nasheed denied it. Across the aisle, jailed former President Abdulla Yameen had characteristically declined to meet Nasheed, to discuss the latter’s conditions for support;the challenger said that he was now focusing only on the presidential poll and not the referendum—indicating a tactical indecision for the present, as they had always backed the presidential system until now.

Wide open 

For an incumbent President seeking a second-term—the mandatory upper-limit—Solih (39 percent) came behind the Opposition PNC-PPM candidate and Malé’s Mayor Dr Mohamed Muizzu (46 percent). The Democrats’ Ilyas Labeeb came a very distant third but the MDP considered it to be a crucial 7 percent vote-share. Other things being equal with the entire Democrats’ votes, Solih would have only equalled Muizzu’s first-round vote—not gone all the way up to the mandatory 50-percent mark, which had eluded the other too in the first round, with the lowest turnout thus far, 79 percent nationwide and 75 percent in the capital with 40-percent of the population.

Among the five other candidates who lost the first round in the recent polling, only one, MNP’s Mohamed Nazim with 0.87percent has pledged ‘unconditional support’ to Muizzu—the proxy of jailed former President Abdulla Yameen. Independent candidates, Umar Naseer(2.88 percent), Faaris Maumoon (1.35 percent) and also Jumhooree Party founder Gasim Ibrahim (2.48 percent) too have decided to stay neutral, the last one after Solih and aides had spent two days with him, purportedly to clarify the government’s agreements with India. The eighth candidate in the first-round, former Minister Hussain Zameel with 0.15percent of the first-round votes, has not been heard of since.

Yameen was among those who had re-registered to vote in the second round, after not having sought a change in voting venue from Malé to the Maafushi island prison, where he is housed.

The presidential poll is thus wide open, what with the traditional re-registration of voters becoming a controversy this time. Under the law, voters are free to choose the island from where they intend to cast their votes. For the re-run, 42,000 voters have re-registered, up from 37,000 in the first round—or, only 5,000 more re-registrations. Yameen was among those who had re-registered to vote in the second round, after not having sought a change in voting venue from Malé to the Maafushi island prison, where he is housed.Team Solih and the Muizzu camp alleged fraud in re-registration by the other, but they were silenced when the EC announced that they were free to verify the data on its website.

Largesse all the way 

Launching a door-to-door campaign in Malé this time, incumbent Solih has announced a switch to fixed rates system for power-tariff against the existing band-based system, which is likely to be implemented (only) from January 2024.After he made the announcements in the course of his second-round campaign, authorities have begun work on the63-hectare, suburban Hulhumalé reclamationfor housing, opened applications for plots and flats for long-term residents of Male, with freedom tobuild up to 10 storeys, and 300 flats for employees of the mainstay tourism sector.

During the campaign, the incumbent also announcedupping retirement age from 65 to 70 years;increased pay for local council administrative employees; increased theold-age pension to MVR 7,000 per month;‘out-station allowance’ for principals in island schools to MVR 9,000;pay-review in the aviator sector;scrapping of interest and extended repayment period on SMEs’ COVID loans; and a hike in the procurement price of fish to MVR 25 per kg against the prevailing MVR 16. He has also waived MVR 4-billion in rent-dues of the mainstay resort industry.

The free-wheeling promises by the two candidates since the commencement of campaign for the firstround of voting have raised concerns about their collective impact on the nation’s economy.

Not to be left behind, Muizzu began by promising todouble the salariesof soldiers and policemen, and pay-hikes in every sectorin three phases spread out through the five-year presidential term, apart frombudget allocation for the media and dialysis centres for every atoll. He has promised a separate ministry for local councils and an agency for old-age care and citizen’s rights.Muizzuhas proposed to foster a ‘creator’s economy’ and has also fixed a target of raising the per capita GDP toUSD$17,000,real GDP to MVR 150 billion, ‘usable reserves’ toUS$ 500 millionand claimed that the Solih government has raised the nation’stotal debt to US$ 146 billion, with MVR 200,000 debt per capita.

The free-wheeling promises by the two candidates since the commencement of campaign for the firstround of voting have raised concerns about their collective impact on the nation’s economy. The Opposition-supportive Maldives Journal News reported that the government’s budget-deficit was MVR 8 billion now as against MVR 2.2 billion from the same period the previous year. Finance Minister Ibrahim Ameer denied Muizzu’s charge that the nation’s Central Bank head was not aware of the loans taken by the government. He also dismissed rumours about the government’s plans to borrow MVR 3 billion.

Hide-and-seek 

If in the first-round, foreign policy (read: India-centric) was not really a top issue despite Yameen’s‘India Out’ campaign in the previous year-plus, it does not seem to be the case since. Anticipating escalation and answering criticism on this score, President Solih reiterated ‘unwavering commitment’ to the nation’s independence and sovereignty.

Possibly with all India agreements in mind, especially the UthuruThilaFalhu (UTF) island coast guard harbour project in mind, the Opposition camp has declared ‘full disclosure’ on all agreements of the kind, if voted to power.

Muizzu, who used to play hot-and-cold, and hide-and-seek on his India policy,has since predicted ‘independence’ from 1 October (when poll results would be announced) and under his leadership, but without naming India. Possibly with all India agreements in mind, especially the UthuruThilaFalhu (UTF) island coast guard harbour project in mind, the Opposition camp has declared ‘full disclosure’ on all agreements of the kind, if voted to power. Reiterating that there were no secrets regarding the UTF harbour, Solih has since announced a civilian housing project for the island and land-reclamation to this end. The defence ministry under Solih’s campaign-head, Mariya Ahmed Didi, clarified that they had full control over the island.

Further on the foreign policy front, the government authenticated a media-leak that proved that there were no secret clauses in the President’s letter to Mauritius Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth last year. Defending the government’s position, Foreign Minister Abdullah Shahid pointed out that India-gifted helicopters and the India-funded Police Academy in southern Addu were brought in by previous governments, not the incumbent one. Democrats’ founder Nasheed too reminded everyone that it was a domestic election and urged others ‘not to involve other countries’ in it. Nasheed said, he also ‘envisions a bright future for democracy’ in Maldives.

For his part, Muizzu has been declaring that if elected, he would work towards fast-tracking the work on the India-funded US$ 500-millionThilamale seabridge, the nation’s single-largest development project, providing for industrialisation, jobs, and housing.He also hinted at  ‘reviewing’ the project, implying a possible change of project-financier and executor, both India-based at present. This has brought back memories of the Yameen administration cancelling the Malé airport expansion contract of Indian infrastructure major GMR Group, paying heavy compensation and damages under arbitration. The expansion works then went to a Chinese firm.

Defending the government’s position, Foreign Minister Abdullah Shahid pointed out that India-gifted helicopters and the India-funded Police Academy in southern Addu were brought in by previous governments, not the incumbent one.

In between, the Indian High Commission has urged the local government to probe social media posts in the name of Indian media persons with potential to spread hatred against nationals residing in Maldives. Earlier, it had complained about fake news reports claiming to be UTF documents. Now into the second-round national mood, the Chinese Embassy too has come up with a similar request to investigate a ‘smear’ campaign against the country. 

It is thus a defining moment for Maldives as a nation, where on the domestic front, democratic traditions are still 15 years young, where personal development in the form of jobs and incomes is jostling for space with community development projects. On the larger canvas, the vote is also about bilateral relations with ever-caring Indian neighbour, not to leave out regional security and stability in the context of a possible big-time re-entry of China, though no one is naming the nation.

N Sathiya Moorthy is a Chennai-based policy analyst and political commentator