Much buzz has been generated in New Delhi’s foreign policy circles about the recently concluded government-to-government deal with Yerevan to supply Armenian armed forces with PINAKA multi-barrel rocket launchers (MBRL), anti-tank munitions, and a wide range of ammunitions and warlike stores
worth US $250 million. However, India needs to carefully comprehend the strategic ramifications of the export decision, in order to shape an effective Eurasian policy moving ahead.
Of particular significance is New Delhi’s green signal to export long-range artillery to Armenia in the form of PINAKA MBRLs, while the country is embroiled in the
recently aggravated but decades-old Nagorno-Karabakh conflict against Azerbaijan. Manufactured by Indian private sector firms and in service with the Indian Army, a PINAKA battery consists of six launchers, loading systems, radar, links to network-based systems, and a command post. Capable of firing a salvo of 12 rockets in 44 seconds,
a single battery can neutralise a one square kilometre region.
Background
While Armenia has become New Delhi’s first international customer of the indigenously developed PINAKA system, the country has previously imported other defence systems from India. In 2020, for instance,
India had landed a US $43 million order to supply four Swathi weapon-locating radars to Armenia. These systems
can track incoming artillery projectiles and pinpoint the location of enemy gun positions for counter-action.
Manufactured by Indian private sector firms and in service with the Indian Army, a PINAKA battery consists of six launchers, loading systems, radar, links to network-based systems, and a command post.
Further, India achieved record defence exports of about
INR 13,000 crore during FY21-22, with the private sector accounting for 70 per cent of the exports. Removal of unnecessary hurdles and encouragement of the private sector increase the likelihood of this rising trend in exports gaining further momentum over the medium- to long-term. It would be myopic, however, to view the implications of India’s defence exports to Yerevan exclusively through the lens of achieving the country’s
INR 35,000 crore defence exports target by 2025.
Pan-Turkism and Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
Turkey’s imperial aim of establishing a pan-Turkic empire, governed from Ankara, is discernible in the modern-day Caucasus and other parts of Eurasia. The racist ideology envisages an empire constituting all countries and regions that speak a Turkic-type language, irrespective of how different the languages are from that spoken in Turkey, and regardless of the approval of the regions’ respective populations. This doctrine used to, and continues to, guide Ankara’s foreign policy. In the words of academician Dimitrios Aristopoulos, “From its support of the Muslim Brotherhood and its invasion of Northern Syria, to its involvement in the Libyan civil war, as well as the illegal immigration threats again
, Greece and Europe, the war in Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), combined with the persecution of Kurds, all are nothing more than parts of the agenda of the pan-Turkish doctrine on Turkey’s expansionist policy”.
Ankara has been trying to exploit its alliance with Baku to reinforce its grip on the region, in an attempt to reinstate the Ottoman Empire and amalgamate the Turkic nations of Central Asia into a seamless logistics space with common armed forces. In 2020, it was at Turkey’s behest that Azerbaijan had attacked the self-governing Artsakh region as well as Armenia proper, to link Turkey with Azerbaijan via Armenia’s Syunik province, also called the Zangezur region. This region connects Armenia with Iran, Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan, a historic Armenian enclave now under Azeri control. Turkey assisted in the management, munitions, soldiers, ISIS terrorists and other mercenaries for this aggression. After this invasion, Azerbaijani troops continued to squat on southern Armenian territory despite a peace agreement having been negotiated.
The racist ideology envisages an empire constituting all countries and regions that speak a Turkic-type language, irrespective of how different the languages are from that spoken in Turkey, and regardless of the approval of the regions’ respective populations.
Azerbaijan once again went on the offensive against Armenia on 13 September, 2022, and Azeri transgressions continue despite a Russia-brokered ceasefire that ostensibly took effect two days later. Armenia continues to face the threat to its sovereignty on its own without military assistance from anyone except India.
India’s relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey
Despite claims of Azerbaijan effectively balancing its relations with India and Pakistan despite several geopolitical differences, Baku’s growing bonhomie with Islamabad is an irritant to New Delhi. It is no wonder, then, that India abstained from inviting Azerbaijan to the BRICS summit, and also allegedly prevented India and Bhutan from signing a declaration of support for Azerbaijan from non-aligned movement (NAM) countries, after hard-line Shia outfits raided the Azerbaijani embassy in London on 4 August, 2022.
The increasing cleavage between Baku and New Delhi stems mainly from diplomatic alignments in Nagorno-Karabakh and Kashmir regions, with India opting to boost its support of Armenia while maintaining its “principled position” of appealing to the aggressor (Azerbaijan) to promptly curb violence. Further, the Azerbaijan-Pakistan military partnership has witnessed significant deepening in recent years in terms of joint drills and education programs.
As far as Turkey is concerned, the country has criticised the abrogation of Article 370 in the erstwhile Indian State of Jammu and Kashmir, while openly supporting Pakistan in various open fora as well as at the United Nations. This is in sharp contrast to Yerevan’s support of New Delhi’s position on Kashmir, viewing the entire territory as an integral part of India.
The increasing cleavage between Baku and New Delhi stems mainly from diplomatic alignments in Nagorno-Karabakh and Kashmir regions, with India opting to boost its support of Armenia while maintaining its “principled position” of appealing to the aggressor (Azerbaijan) to promptly curb violence.
Outlook
On the anniversary of Kemal Ataturk’s death on 10 November, 2016, Turkey’s President Erdogan had openly proclaimed that “Turkey is greater than Turkey” and that the country’s “physical borders are different to the borders of the heart”, the latter including the “areas of Mosul, Kirkuk, Humus, (and) Skopje” amongst many others. Standing in the way of Ankara’s ambitions is Christian Armenia, considered the Cradle of Civilization, with Noah’s Ark believed to have rested upon the summits of Mount Ararat in the Biblical tradition.
With the recent export of military hardware including the PINAKA MBRL to Armenia, India has overtly positioned itself on Armenia’s side in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and has consequently opted to resist Azerbaijan and its backers including Turkey and Pakistan as well as Ankara’s expansionist pan-Turkic ambitions. Therefore, India’s defence exports to Armenia constitute a powerful signal to Ankara to change course on New Delhi’s internal policy issues including Kashmir, given New Delhi’s new-found willingness to take sides rather than following the non-aligned approach while pursuing its interests globally.
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