The exodus of people from Nepal has resulted in a scenario that will become unsustainable for the economy of Nepal
The latest census conducted in 2021 in Nepal shows that the average growth of the population in the country dropped perceptibly from 1.34 per cent in 2011 to 0.93 per cent in 2021. Factors such as the outmigration of the population, reduction in fertility rate, increase in literacy rate mainly among young women, rising costs of living, and greater engagement of couples in the workforce have led to this development. Because of the outmigration of the population, the country receives a substantial amount of remittances, which, however, is soon depleted as Nepal imports most goods—from needles to sophisticated machinery—from foreign countries.
Youths are leaving the country in droves due to lack of dignified employment opportunities and income at home. In 1994-95, only 2,159 people left the country for foreign employment, which increased to 214,094 in 2006-07 and further to 750,000 in 2022-23. Reports are that, each day, about 3,000 youths leave the country for foreign employment in the Gulf countries, Malaysia, Europe and other countries. No less than a million people out of Nepal’s total population of 30 million leave the country each year.
Settlers in the rural areas are vanishing and vast portions of the settlements are turning into ghost villages or forests.
Many others in the country are gradually migrating from rural to urban areas in search of jobs and other basic opportunities like better education and health facilities. In most of the rural areas, the standard of education and the health facilities that are available to the people is far from satisfactory. As such, the villages are not only shrinking but also emptying fast. Settlers in the rural areas are vanishing and vast portions of the settlements are turning into ghost villages or forests.
As per government statistics, only one-third of Nepal’s total population now lives in rural areas against two-thirds in urban areas. Villagers in the mountain and hill regions are also leaving and settling in the Terai region of Nepal bordering India. As such, the population of the Terai region has increased lopsidedly to 54 percent of the whole population of Nepal, though it occupies only 23 percent of the total land area of the country.
From the population perspective, Nepal has turned from a hill/mountain-dominated country to a Terai/Madhesh-dominated one, which, for all practical purposes, is not a healthy sign of the growth of the population. The situation has become so precarious particularly in the hills and mountain regions that there are virtually very few people left in many of the villages to consume the fruits of development and other basic services that are provided to them by the government agencies at their doorsteps.
About the emptying villages of the country, Ganesh Karn, a taxi driver in Kathmandu is of the view, “If the present trend of outmigration continues unabated, it would pose a threat to the existence of the country.” Suman Khadka, a businessman in Lalitpur opined, “I doubt if Nepal would survive as a nation if the outmigration is not controlled.” Ram Prasad Maharjan, a school shopkeeper in Bhaktpur said, “Planning has failed in Nepal. The government is least concerned about the plight of the common people. Employment opportunities are lacking. We need a pro-active government in the centre to address the issue of emptying villages”
The situation has become so precarious particularly in the hills and mountain regions that there are virtually very few people left in many of the villages to consume the fruits of development and other basic services that are provided to them by the government agencies at their doorsteps.
Ramchandra Poudel, President of Nepal, has become highly concerned about the way the villages are emptying. He wondered as to why the villages were on the verge of dying despite the development activities there. While addressing a function organised on the occasion of 65th anniversary of the Saraswati Multiple Campus in Kathmandu, President Paudel said, “Despite the development in education, communication, roads, health, and electrification of the country after democracy, why is the village languishing today due to the lack of people to it?.” On some other occasion, he further added, “We are intoxicated by our love for foreign shores, in search of green pasture over there, when we have that available in our own country. After all, why did it happen? I ask this question to myself and the answer also is within me. Everything has reached the villages, but not the decent employment and situation of making a living.”
Because of depopulation, many of the schools are getting closed not only in the villages but also in a metropolitan capital city like Kathmandu. For instance, in a remote province like Karnali, over 30 percent of the public schools are finding it difficult to survive because of the lower enrolment numbers. The government is spending a lot of money on school education, but most of it goes into paying the salaries of teachers even though there are no students.
The depopulation has also impacted consumption behaviour throughout the country. Due to the lower demand for milk and milk products in the country, the state-owned Dairy Development Corporation and the private dairy firms are finding it difficult to pay the billions of rupees that they owe to the farmers. In their frustration, many of the farmers have started agitations and are literally pouring valuable milk in the drains. Besides, most of the restaurants in the country are finding fewer customers. In Kathmandu Valley, the number of customers at the restaurants has reduced to 60 per cent of the pre-pandemic level. Also, imports of petroleum products have reduced because of the fall in the number of customers.
Due to the lower demand for milk and milk products in the country, the state-owned Dairy Development Corporation and the private dairy firms are finding it difficult to pay the billions of rupees that they owe to the farmers.
Despite several imbalances caused by the depopulation, the country fetched foreign exchange worth US$ 9.33 billion in 2022-23, which is almost one-fourth of Nepal’s total Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Between July 2023 to January 2024, there was a growth of 25 percent in remittance inflow to US$ 5.5 billion and it is likely to double by the end of the year. But the remittance earned is hardly used in the production sector and is mostly used for consumption.
Virtually, Nepal seems to be producing cheap and unskilled labour not so much in the national interest but more so in the interest of the West and the Persian Gulf. As such, villages are emptying and causing socio-economic disorders of serious magnitude. This does not augur well for the future of the country. To reverse the process, what is needed most is to focus on the agrarian revolution, and develop quality education, health facilities, skills, tourism and energy to boost domestic production of goods and services, apart from generating gainful employment on a massive scale.
Hari Bansh Jha is Visiting Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Hari Bansh Jha is a Visiting Fellow at ORF. Formerly a professor of economics at Nepal's Tribhuvan University, Hari Bansh’s areas of interest include, Nepal-China-India strategic ...
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