Deep-Sea Mining: US, China, and the ‘Race to the Bottom’

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The United States (US) has belatedly realised that China has sped ahead in many critical areas, repositioning the latter in the great power competition. Not surprisingly, the second Donald Trump administration has relied on executive actions to reduce the China deficit by circumventing lengthy decision-making processes. Among many such areas of concern is deep-sea mining. The Trump administration’s executive order (EO) has put the spotlight on deep-sea mining and its linkage with critical minerals. The order focuses on developing seabed mineral resources, extraction and processing technologies, and securing supply chains for key industries. It comes at a time of increasing geopolitical competition for critical minerals. China currently dominates this domain, giving the country enormous leverage to bend the rules of the game and disrupt global supply chains. The US, aware of this vulnerability, aims to find alternative paths for rapid growth in the sector with the EO on deep-sea mining as a timely lever.

The Trump administration’s executive order (EO) has put the spotlight on deep-sea mining and its linkage with critical minerals.

While the US has been focusing on the issue for some time now, the Trump administration intends to hasten the process, given the complexity of challenging China’s dominance in the area of critical minerals and rare earth. With deep-sea mining, the challenges are only compounded. In 2022, the US Department of the Geological Survey developed a list of 50 critical minerals to assess and prioritise the usage of these minerals. According to a review by the USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries in 2024, the US is 100 percent net import reliant for 12 of the 50 critical minerals and more than 50 percent reliant for an additional 29. In comparison, in 2023, China was the leading producer of 29 of the 50 critical minerals.

The China Question

Deep-sea mining is a controversial issue with both sceptics and enthusiasts. Currently, the UN-backed International Seabed Authority (ISA), established under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), regulates seabed extraction activities. To date, it has issued 31 licences. Table 1 highlights the number of licenses held by major countries.

Table 1: List of licenses

Source: International Seabed Authority

The US is an important absentee from the list of countries holding deep-sea mining licences. As they are granted by the ISA and the US is not a voting member of the organisation, it cannot hold these licenses. Despite this, the Metals Company (TMC)—a Canadian company with a US subsidiary—has applied for a license to commercially exploit seabed minerals in internal waters by partnering with other island nations, which are ISA voting members. TMC’s US subsidiary has submitted applications for commercial recovery and exploration under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act. The Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act, passed in 1980, governs deep-sea activities in the US. It authorised US citizens to explore for and recover minerals from the seabed in Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction (ABNJ). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which issues exploration and commercial permits for ABNJ, issued exploration licenses for four sites in 1984.

The race to the ocean floor is driven by the recognition that China currently dominates the land-based critical minerals supply chain.

The race to the ocean floor is driven by the recognition that China currently dominates the land-based critical minerals supply chain. It controls nearly 60 percent of global production, 90 percent of processing, and 75 percent of manufacturing in the sector. Its chokehold over the supply chain and the realisation that it can disrupt global supplies on its terms has led countries to diversify. Deep-sea mining offers that alternative. However,  Beijing is leading the way in this domain too. It holds five of the 31 licenses issued by the International Seabed Authority (ISA), the highest number held by any country. Unlike the US, China is a permanent member of the ISA, giving it significant leverage in shaping deep-sea exploration policy. It also provides substantial financial support to the ISA for research-related activities. Its ambition to dominate seabed minerals is also evident in the collaboration with Pacific Island countries. It recently signed a five-year agreement with the Cook Islands to explore deep-sea minerals. It includes technology transfer, logistics support, and research into deep-sea ecosystems. It is advancing at a brisk pace to outmanoeuvre other countries in the deep-sea mining race. The Trump administration is thus moving towards a long-term strategy to catch up with China in this domain, both by speeding efforts at home and working with partners and allies. 

Recently, the US’s vulnerability vis-à-vis China was exposed when the latter restricted seven categories of medium and heavy rare earth elements (a subset of critical minerals) as part of its retaliatory actions against Trump’s intensifying tariffs, showing its ability to weaponise its hold over the mining and processing of critical minerals.

Aside from this, the US’s decision is driven by the need to regulate current and future demands by establishing a domestic extraction and processing hub. Recently, the US’s vulnerability vis-à-vis China was exposed when the latter restricted seven categories of medium and heavy rare earth elements (a subset of critical minerals) as part of its retaliatory actions against Trump’s intensifying tariffs, showing its ability to weaponise its hold over the mining and processing of critical minerals.

Trump’s EO has drawn varied responses. While Beijing has reacted sharply, terming it a violation of international law, private players have welcomed it, as evidenced by the announcement from TMC. Following recent developments, Washington signed a critical minerals deal with Ukraine. The US has doubled down on its critical mineral vision by an aggressive outlook on land as well. By virtue of the US-Ukraine mineral deal, Kyiv is expected to grant the US preferential access to its deposits.

A Case for India-US Collaboration? 

Other like-minded countries are also working towards developing their deep-sea mining capabilities, including India. In 2021, it launched the deep ocean mission with one of the key components being the development of technologies for deep-sea mining and manned submersibles and underwater robotics. The mission has demonstrated visible progress with the first human underwater submersible (Deep-Sea Manned Vehicle) slated to launch this year. The submersible will initially operate at a depth of 500m and then reach 6000m by next year. On 18 January 2025, the Government of India submitted two applications to the ISA for the approval of plans of work for seabed exploration in the Indian Ocean.

The agreement focused on “identifying equipment, services, policies, and best practices to facilitate the mutually beneficial commercial development of US and Indian critical minerals.”

Additionally, India has launched the National Critical Minerals Mission to establish a framework for self-reliance in the critical minerals sector. The mission has tasked the Geological Survey of India with conducting 1,200 exploration projects from 2024–25 to 2030–31. The timeline suggests a long-horizon strategy. In October 2024, India and the US signed an agreement to strengthen the critical minerals supply chain. The agreement focused on “identifying equipment, services, policies, and best practices to facilitate the mutually beneficial commercial development of US and Indian critical minerals.”

Beyond the Indian Ocean Region, India, as indeed the US, has shown interest in exploring the area near the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ)—a vast plain, spanning 3100 miles, between Hawaii and Mexico, known to hold large volumes of polymetallic nodules containing minerals like copper, nickel, cobalt, and iron, among other metals, used in electric vehicles, solar panels, defence equipment, etc. Most of the exploration licenses issued by the ISA entail the CCZ. These convergences could allow India and the US to work with like-minded countries, and set up extraction and processing infrastructures as well as research and development centres to efficiently and rapidly, yet sustainably, mine the uncharted waters.

The competition for deep-sea mining is intensifying, as numerous countries express interest and collaborate to stay ahead in the race. Although the economic and environmental viability of deep-sea mining remains unproven and highly controversial, efforts are underway to turn it into a reality on a commercial scale. India and the US will benefit by joining efforts to make the most in the area. Both countries are in a nascent stage of developing their deep-sea mining capabilities, necessitating the pooling of resources, financing, and human capital for a long-term strategy which would balance a China that is racing ahead.

Vivek Mishra is the Deputy Director of the Strategic Studies Programme, Observer Research Foundation.

Akshat Singh is a Research Intern at the Strategic Studies Programme, Observer Research Foundation.

• International Affairs
• China
• USA and Canada
• china critical minerals dominance
• critical minerals deep sea mining
• critical minerals supply chain
• deep sea mining
• deep sea mining china
• deep sea mining us
• international seabed authority
• seabed mining

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