Countering US dominance: North Korea's northern triangle strategy

During the Cold War, there were opposing regional blocs with opposing interests: The northern triangle comprising North Korea, China, and the erstwhile Soviet Union and the southern triangle with South Korea, the United States (US), and Japan. However, the recent geopolitical events, the Russia-Ukraine conflict coupled with the escalating rivalry between the US and China, largely contributed to the re-emergence of the northern triangle that had disintegrated post the Cold War. These circumstances have created a new geopolitical landscape characterised by a renewed cooperation and alignment of Pyongyang with Moscow and Beijing.

Animosity against the US

Recently, on the occasion of the 73rd anniversary of the onset of the Korean War, North Korea organised large-scale gatherings in Pyongyang, where approximately 120,000 individuals vehemently denounced the “imperialistic” actions of the US and vowed to engage in a “war of revenge.” They accused the US of intentionally provoking the Korean War and perpetuating lasting wounds on the Korean people. In addition, the demonstrators expressed a sense of pride in North Korea's ongoing advancements in nuclear weapons and missile programmes. They emphasised that their country now possesses the “strongest absolute weapon” capable of punishing the US “imperialists”, and they asserted that it serves as a deterrent, instilling fear in any potential enemy from provoking them.

The resumption of Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) tests aims to target the US, whereas the short- and medium-range missile tests aim to counter regional defences and target US allies and assets.

In recent times, animosity against America is consistently on the rise, and since 2022, North Korea's more than 100 missile tests and Kim's rejection of denuclearisation strained bilateral relations. North Korea has asserted that its nuclear weapons serve as a deterrent against potential attacks by the US. The resumption of Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) tests aims to target the US, whereas the short- and medium-range missile tests aim to counter regional defences and target US allies and assets. Notably, after the failed denuclearisation talks, Pyongyang’s foreign policy plans appear to have undergone recent adjustments to account for new geopolitical realities, such as the Russia-US confrontation over Ukraine and the China-US tensions concerning Taiwan. Nonetheless, due to the imposition of extensive sanctions, threats, ongoing geopolitics, and regular military drills, North Korea has found itself in a challenging situation. In light of the current volatile international order, North Korea is further confronting the US by strategically aligning with Russia and China. The objective is to form a united front that can serve as a deterrent against the prevailing US policies. 

Strategic ‘Northern’ triangle

The “northern triangle” demonstrates a positive bilateral relationship between the three, particularly when it comes to addressing challenges involving the US. Following this, North Korea through various mediums, has explicitly supported Russia’s position on the Ukraine crisis and criticised US’s disregard for Russia's legitimate security demands. Additionally, North Korea has criticised the US for its intentions to isolate China in the Asia-Pacific region by refurbishing its long-term plan. However, the consequences of US efforts to strengthen relationships with South Korea and Japan have resulted in converging interests and enhanced cooperation among China, Russia, and North Korea. These developments coupled with the US-China strategic rivalry and Russia-Ukraine conflict, have sparked a resurgence of this northern triangle, aimed at diminishing US influence in the region and advocating for a multipolar international system.

North Korea has criticised the US for its intentions to isolate China in the Asia-Pacific region by refurbishing its long-term plan.

The efforts of Pyongyang to strengthen its relations with China and Russia are not occurring in isolation, as both countries have exhibited growing support for the North Korean regime. This was particularly evident on 20 January 2022, when China and Russia exercised their veto power in the United Nations, preventing the imposition of additional sanctions on North Korea following its missile tests. Over the years, China and Russia have consistently advocated for the lifting of international sanctions on North Korea for humanitarian reasons and have actively encouraged diplomatic negotiations. This shared alignment has provided North Korea with the opportunity to conduct missile tests with relative freedom and frequency, allowing the country to advance its missile capabilities with minimal consequences. Concurrently, in the recent past, North Korea has engaged in discussions with Russia aimed at strengthening bilateral ties and demonstrated indications of preparing to partially resume trade between the two countries. In July 2022, North Korea officially recognised two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, known as “people's republics,” which were backed by Russia, as independent states. This recognition was in contrast to the stance taken by most other countries, as only North Korea and Syria acknowledge the Russian annexations. In a recent message to Putin in June 2023, Kim vowed to “hold hands” with Putin, symbolising the deepening ties and growing cooperation between the two nations. Moreover, allegations have been made that Pyongyang has supplied weapons to Russia, while simultaneously pursuing the advancement of its own ballistic missile and nuclear weapons arsenal.

North Korea has engaged in discussions with Russia aimed at strengthening bilateral ties and demonstrated indications of preparing to partially resume trade between the two countries.

Whereas, Beijing being the largest trading partner of Pyongyang has allowed the Kim regime to flourish over the years. However, Pyongyang's nuclear tests and missile launches challenged its relationship with Beijing. Beijing has been a constant advocate of a multilateral framework called Six-Party Talks, aimed to achieve Pyongyang’s denuclearisation. However, China's assertive actions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, as well as its rivalry with the US, have created a strategic environment where its relationship with North Korea has flourished. A recent example of this was China's refusal to condemn the failed launch of North Korea's spy satellite, indicating a degree of support or tolerance towards North Korea's actions. Moreover, Pyongyang had relaxed its pandemic-related restrictions and resumed train operations between Sinuiju and Dandong to receive humanitarian assistance from Beijing. The continued strong relations with China and Russia serve as a protective measure for North Korea, shielding it from potential punitive actions by the US. However, the strategic benefits that China and Russia derive from North Korea's nuclear weapon development remain unclear. North Korea's missile testing serves multiple purposes, including evaluating the effectiveness of US and South Korean missile defence systems, such as THAAD, against its new ballistic missiles. This data could also be valuable for China and Russia as they seek to enhance their own missile capabilities and surpass US defence systems. Despite officially opposing North Korea's nuclear weapons mechanism, China and Russia view the survival of the regime as strategically important, as it acts as a buffer state against US influence. North Korea's WMDs serve as a reliable deterrent against a potential US attack on the regime, and it appears that China and Russia are willing to bear the associated costs.

North Korea's missile testing serves multiple purposes, including evaluating the effectiveness of US and South Korean missile defence systems, such as THAAD, against its new ballistic missiles.

Implications and conclusion

Kim Jong Un stands to benefit significantly from the strained relationships between China, Russia, and the US. Recent events in Ukraine, where conflict has erupted following its decision to give up nuclear weapons several decades ago, highlight the importance of possessing nuclear capabilities for ensuring the security of the regime. Beijing and Moscow, prioritising their ties with Pyongyang over denuclearisation, aim to deter the expansion of American influence and its regional allies. Nonetheless, the unrestricted North Korean nuclear weapons programme will have potential mid- to longer-term geopolitical implications and it is prudent for China and Russia to carefully consider the same. Such considerations should prompt China, Russia, and the US to urgently advocate for an arms control dialogue in Northeast Asia. The dialogue should have the objective of preventing the spread of developing nuclear weapons in Seoul and Tokyo, promoting the disarmament of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, and quashing the deployment of the US nuclear weapons in the region, which would further amplify security complexities. However, the polarised and perplexed security environment poses challenges for the US and its allies in achieving international consensus on the complete denuclearisation of North Korea. Subsequently, recent steps taken by the US, such as the docking of nuclear-armed submarines in South Korea, show some progress. The further deployment of tactical nuclear weapons, nuclear missile defence systems, or even the eventual installation of nuclear weapons, similar to the Cold War era, may still be seen as viable and temporary solutions for regional security.

---

Abhishek Kumar Singh is a PhD Candidate in IR at Kookmin University, Seoul on a GKS scholarship

• International Affairs
• China
• India
• Russia and Eurasia
• USA and Canada
• The Pacific, East and Southeast Asia
• Cold War
• geopolitical
• North Korea
• NORTHERN TRIANGLE
• Nuclear weapons
• Russia–Ukraine conflict
• US-China rivalry
• US-NORTH KOREA RELATIONS

The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.