China is analysing and preparing for the impact of Trump 2.0, and it is hoping to improve its relations with other nations
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This article is part of the series, "Reignited agendas: Trump’s return and its global repercussions"
As Donald Trump has returned to power—a once-in-a-century political development in American history—a sense of crisis seems to have gripped China’s strategic circles. China’s official media, in its bid to boost morale, strove to play down the turn in events and encouraged staying calm. However, the overwhelming public sentiment in China about Trump 2.0 is still, "storm is coming…brace up for impact.”
Will Trump fulfil his promise of cancelling China's “most-favoured-nation treatment,” and impose a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods to intensify China-United States (US) decoupling? How will a business-minded Trump play the Taiwan card? On the diplomatic front, can there be a “Nixon 2.0”[1] —that is, will US-Russia reconcile and drastically deteriorate China’s security environment? Will Trump’s election success cause a right wing rebound in all of Europe? Will there be a repeat of the Cold War era "Reagan-Thatcher political alignment"?[2] These are some of the issues being intensely discussed and debated in Chinese policy circles.
China will strive to step up its game, daring to fight and come up with effective countermeasures to Trump’s policies targeting China.
China’s coping strategy vis-à-vis Trump 2.0, as indicated by Liu Hong (a senior reporter of Xinhua News Agency who writes under the pseudonym of "Niu Tanqin"), is likely to be threefold. First, treating President Trump with due courtesy and respect. Congratulating him on his win, calling frequently, praising him, making promises, and cooperating wherever needed, thereby keeping him pleased overall. It is not surprising, therefore, that as Trump got elected as president, China was among the first to congratulate him, with the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasising China’s respect for the choice of the American people. Secondly, China will strive to step up its game, daring to fight and come up with effective countermeasures to Trump’s policies targeting China. Thirdly, Beijing will strive for the best, while also preparing for the worst outcome, that is, it will use this pressure as motivation to further carry out domestic reforms and transform its economy into one led by innovation.
Meanwhile, as highlighted by Huang Jing (Distinguished Professor of Shanghai International Studies University), China will be paying close attention to the following five aspects of American politics, to enhance its own strategic space going forward.
First, it will keep a close eye on Trump's ruling team, particularly Vice-president elect J. D. Vance for various reasons:
It is no wonder then that China has not only sent a congratulatory message to President-elect Trump, but also reached out to elected Vice President Vance.
Second, the Chinese strategic community is paying close attention to a possible unexpected situation, or what they call the "Kennedy phenomenon," to hit the American political landscape in the coming months before the elected president is officially sworn in. Chinese internet is abuzz with content on how the Republican Party has been "Trumpified” in the past four years. It is concerned that a now “Trumpified Republican Party” controlling the White House, the Senate, the House of Representatives and the Supreme Court, could mean that Trump 2.0 will be much more ruthless than Trump 1.0, less constrained by the legislative and judicial branches and having greater decision-making power in terms of personnel appointments, policies, and foreign military affairs. Some online commentators even called Trump the new Caesar, at least for the next two years. They prophesied that Trump will meet the same fate as Caesar with the new Roman Republic (that is, America under Trump) eventually turning into the new Roman Empire.
China is carefully watching the internal dynamics within the Republican Party, particularly, the possible rift between President-elect Trump and the moderates within the Republican establishment over personnel appointments, which they believe, may have an impact on Trump's ruling team and his future policies.
In the same vein, China is carefully watching the internal dynamics within the Republican Party, particularly, the possible rift between President-elect Trump and the moderates within the Republican establishment over personnel appointments, which they believe, may have an impact on Trump's ruling team and his future policies. For example, Trump’s decisive exclusion of Nikki Haley and Mark Pompeo caused quite a buzz within Chinese strategic circles, where the inference was that Trump 2.0 has little room for hesitant "fence-sitters" or “dissidents,” and that the new cabinet would be composed of extremely conservative and loyal confidants, who would fully support and promote Trump’s radical policies. However, the Chinese side believe that Trump's authoritarian style will exacerbate division within the Republican Party, intensify political unrest, and normalise street protests, violent conflicts and intra-party struggles over the next four years.
Fourth, China is closely watching the reaction of US allies to Trump, notably, the European countries (such as Germany and France), members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the European Union (EU), Japan, Taiwan and South Korea. There is much discussion in the Chinese media about US allies’ deep concern over Trump's "America First" policy and the uncertainty it brings. For example, it is being argued that Trump's protectionist policies may promote the deepening of economic relations between China and certain EU countries like Germany, making them more dependent on the Chinese market in terms of diversifying trade risk and maintaining export-led growth. Meanwhile Trump's questioning of NATO, opposition to military aid in Ukraine, and possible abandonment of Biden's "uniting with Europe to contain China" strategy, will push the EU to re-pursue "European strategic autonomy," and enhance Europe's own independence in the fields of defence, diplomacy and economy, which is beneficial to China’s interest.
It is being argued that Trump's protectionist policies may promote the deepening of economic relations between China and certain EU countries like Germany, making them more dependent on the Chinese market in terms of diversifying trade risk and maintaining export-led growth.
Fifth, China is closely following the reaction in the Democratic Party—whether it rationally accepts failure, and how it might reorganise internally. First, how would the Democrats prepare for the 2026 midterm elections, and second, if they can cultivate new forces around the former Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, pushing Raimondo to run for president in 2028.
Finally, it is important to note that bracing for the storm ahead, China is now desperately looking for “more friends and fewer enemies,” hoping to improve its ties with a host of countries, including India. The recently concluded China-India border patrol agreement is possibly an important step towards that direction. The extent to which China might go to expand and consolidate its circle of friends in response to Trump 2.0, is yet to be seen.
Antara Ghosal Singh is a Fellow at the Strategic Studies Programme at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.
[1] Reference to Nixon's surprise visit to China and China-US reconciliation during the Cold War
[2] Reference to Reagan’s alliance with Britain's Margaret Thatcher, aimed at putting great pressure on the Soviet Union
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Antara Ghosal Singh is a Fellow at the Strategic Studies Programme at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. Her area of research includes China-India relations, China-India-US ...
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