Globally, the fear of overpopulation has been replaced by concerns about ageing societies. Declining fertility rates and increasing longevity between 1970 and 2020 have made ageing the dominant global demographic trend. Population alarmists of the 1970s often presented famines, environmental degradation, and food shortages as inevitable consequences of overpopulation and birth control, and population stabilisation efforts often disregarded the basic human rights of people in developing countries. While the latest demographic trend of a growing elderly population has not been met with the same degree of alarmism, the elderly are often presented as a problem due to higher health costs, care requirements, and their lack of productive potential. Some scholars like David Bloom and Leo Zucker have even described ageing as the “real population bomb”. This view of the elderly population as an economic and social burden not only hurts the dignity of older persons but may also be untrue in many contexts, particularly in several developing countries where the informal sector dominates the economy and elders provide crucial unpaid services to their families and communities like agriculture, childcare, fetching water, social work through religious institutions, organising religious functions, etc.
Experts have often argued that India’s growing youth population and low-dependency ratio is an economic asset (also known as demographic dividend), especially at a time when the developed world is facing labour shortages. Notwithstanding its huge youth population which is likely to peak in 2041, the country is also witnessing a growing population of senior citizens i.e. people above the age of 60. According to Census 2011, India had about 103 million elderly citizens (more than the total population of countries like the United Kingdom (UK), Germany, and France) and they accounted for about 8.6 percent of the total Indian population. As per the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare’s Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI), the share of the elderly population is projected to reach 19.5 percent (nearly 355 million persons in absolute numbers) of the total population by 2050. States like Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra already have a much higher share of the elderly population at 19.6 percent, 16.5 percent, 16.4 percent, and 15.2 percent respectively.
This view of the elderly population as an economic and social burden not only hurts the dignity of older persons but may also be untrue in many contexts, particularly in several developing countries where the informal sector dominates the economy
The rising elderly population has led to heightened concerns about India’s preparedness and the burden on its exchequer. However, Indian policymakers must keep in mind the country’s socio-economic reality while making policies for the elderly. The first and foremost question is the relevance of concepts like the dependency ratio (the ratio of persons 60 years and above to the working-age population 15-59 years) in the Indian context. On the one hand, the high youth unemployment rate is preventing the country from reaping the demographic dividend, on the other hand, everybody above 60 years is not exactly dependent.
A small but growing section of highly educated professionals above 60 years are re-entering the labour force as consultants and advisers. However, a significantly high proportion of India’s elderly citizens are too poor to ever retire. They continue to work in the informal sector and often perform very labour-intensive jobs like pulling cycle rickshaws and lifting heavy weights. The LASI Study finds that half of the elderly male population is currently working. While the figure for elderly women is lower at 22 percent, it could be because of an underestimation of women’s care work and unpaid work in agriculture. While the definition of work used in the LASI study is relatively broad, it does not include community services which are particularly important in the Indian context. Many elderly persons are involved in the provision of crucial social services (also known as ‘sewa’ in Hindi) through religious organisations like temples, gurudwaras etc. Such services contribute to the welfare of ordinary citizens, promote social cohesion, and provide a sense of identity in the community. In other words, the notion that all citizens above the age of 60 are unproductive dependents, is not true.
Old women bear special mention because unlike the overall sex ratio, which is skewed in favour of men, sex ratio at 60 years and above is skewed in favour of women at 1,065 females per 1000 males. About 68.3 percent of women between 60-75 years of age and 73.3 percent of women above 75 years have never been to school while only 8 percent have completed primary school. Also, a substantial section of elderly women, particularly rural women have no source of income and are completely financially dependent on their families. Old women, particularly widows, also experience discrimination. About 70 percent of the currently working elderly women are engaged in agriculture and allied activities. The economic contribution of elderly women through care work is often underestimated. Elderly women make critical contributions to their families through their care work, particularly for their grandchildren, and also other elderly members of the household. A recent report by Age International estimated that globally, old women perform 4.3 hours of domestic work and unpaid care work. The report further calls them a ‘hidden workforce’.
Although, the family is regarded as the main institution responsible for the care of older persons in India, household incomes in India are very low and taking care of the elderly is often a huge financial burden for the families.
Although, the family is regarded as the main institution responsible for the care of older persons in India, household incomes in India are very low. As such, taking care of the elderly is often a huge financial burden for the families. Governments, both the centre and the states, have made some efforts to address the concerns of the senior citizens in recent years. However, the bulk of the elderly population does not benefit from many of the existing benefits provided by the government due to poor awareness about government schemes and inability to access them.
A significantly large share of the elderly population in India is severely economically disadvantaged. The elderly is often paid less than persons aged between 45-59 years. The mean monthly earnings of elderly workers is just about INR 6,670. The annual per capita income and the monthly per capita consumption expenditure (MPCE) of households with at least one elderly person is also quite low at INR 44,901 and INR 2,948 respectively. Therefore, policies directed towards the elderly should be tied with poverty alleviation, nutrition, and health schemes. While participation in economic activities contributes to well-being, much of it is distress-driven and exploitative in the context of the elderly from low-income households. Therefore, a universal pension for the elderly is the most effective way to help India’s senior citizens and even low-income households. It will provide income security to the elderly, protect them during sickness, and improve their bargaining power in the labour market.
Greater investments are also needed in the health and re-skilling of older persons. The urban elite has access to better health facilities but the bulk of India’s elderly, particularly in rural areas, lack access to adequate health facilities. Therefore, primary health centres should be strengthened and the country’s health policy should turn its attention to geriatric care. India’s current healthcare model focuses on individual diseases as opposed to a comprehensive elderly healthcare programme akin to maternal and child health. The country also needs to invest in the training of healthcare professionals. However, rising health expenditure should not be viewed as a drain of resources. Rather investments in the health sector can be a driver of growth and create employment opportunities for the younger population. As mentioned above, many senior citizens are qualified and are already making important economic contributions in post-retirement vocations. If access to learning opportunities, particularly newer skills and digital technologies can be imparted, then more senior citizens can become financially independent and find a sense of purpose in life.
In a nutshell, India needs sensitive planning for this fast growing population cohort rather than fear-mongering over a natural demographic transition and off-course pejorative phrases like ‘new population time bomb’ must be shunned completely.
Malancha Chakrabarty is a Senior Fellow and Deputy Director (Research) at the Observer Research Foundation.
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