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The US is reassessing its engagement with Central Asia amid shifting priorities, trade barriers, and China’s growing influence. Can Washington strengthen these ties?
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Donald Trump’s return to the White House has disrupted the world order, prompting countries to adjust to new realities. The current United States (US) administration has adopted a pragmatic approach, prioritising trade parity with other countries and focusing on issues on the home front. The five landlocked Central Asian Republics (CARs) remain out of Washington’s line of sight. The ‘America First’ agenda and goals to maximise influence in world politics parsimoniously have impacted several countries and regions. For instance, the US Agency for International Development (USAID) repeal has significantly impacted Central Asia, highlighting the importance of US assistance. Thus, with changing US priorities, it will be interesting to observe Washington’s calculus and what it means for the CARs over the next four years.
The ‘America First’ agenda and goals to maximise influence in world politics parsimoniously have impacted several countries and regions.
There was significant hype as Central Asia became a priority in US policy following the first Trump administration’s 2020 ‘United States Strategy for Central Asia 2019-2025’. The strategy aimed to support Afghanistan, promote democracy, and advance economic goals. However, no substantial changes were observed on the ground. The region was instead impacted by a series of unexpected crises, including regional political unrest, violent conflicts, US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and violent protests in Kazakhstan, highlighting the unpredictability of stability in the region’s. Moreover, the decade-old C5+1 format has failed to yield tangible results in US-Central Asia relations.
The reasons for the lack of outreach are the distance and the absence of Central Asian elites influencing businesses and politics in the US. The lack of private-sector investment also hinders stronger relations. The recent repeal of USAID, which contributed to sectors such as health, education, governance, agriculture, peace, and security in Central Asia, is a serious blow. Although it does not necessarily indicate a complete end of support, major health projects in countries like Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, particularly those focused on tuberculosis, have been entirely halted due to the freezing of funds, adding to existing concerns. US assistance through USAID totalled approximately US$235 million in 2023, injecting crucial support in regional development and stability.
Post-independence, no Central Asian country could escape the Amendment except Kyrgyzstan in 2002, which was said to be a free market and an “island of democracy” in Central Asia.
It is critical to highlight bottlenecks in trade relations. The Jackson-Vanik Amendment, a part of the Trade Act 1974, restrains trade between the US and CARs. It was historically designed to restrict trade with the erstwhile Soviet Union, its members, or any communist-aligned countries due to concerns over restrictions on free Jewish emigration. Post-independence, no Central Asian country could escape the Amendment except Kyrgyzstan in 2002, which was said to be a free market and an “island of democracy” in Central Asia. Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) since the last decade, have been slapped with trade barriers; Uzbekistan is set to join the WTO in 2026. Even with the dissolution of the USSR and Kazakhstan being recognised as a market economy by the US since 2002, the Jackson-Vanik Amendment continues to apply to these three countries. However, following the 2023 legislation, discussions have intensified about granting them Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status, which has been contingent on annual reviews since independence. Turkmenistan currently holds temporary NTR status.
Despite this, the US is finding new ways to collaborate with Central Asia, as evidenced by initiatives like the US-Kazakhstan Trade Modernization Act proposed by the US in February 2025. This bill aims to repeal the Jackson-Vanik Amendment by granting Kazakhstan PNTR status. However, modernising trade includes other, subtle strategic motives. As per US government representatives, Washington’s primary aim in improving ties with Central Asia is to facilitate the expansion of trade while countering the efforts of China and Russia to assert dominance over the region.
Central Asia is strategically important for the US due to its vast natural resources and location. First, the region’s reserves of hydrocarbons and critical minerals are vital for global energy markets and the clean energy transition. US investment in the strategic minerals sector, particularly in extraction and production technology, in Central Asia—which is home to almost 15 rare earth elements—will bring an economic boom in the region. Kazakhstan is critical to the US, being a major regional centre for trade, investment, and energy, particularly in rare-earth minerals and uranium production. The country also had the highest trade with the US in the whole of Central Asia, amounting to US$3.3 billion in 2024. The conclusion of the US-Ukraine critical minerals agreement and Washington’s interest in diversifying critical minerals supply chains away from China has resulted in the US scrambling for new markets with viable reserves.
US investment in the strategic minerals sector, particularly in extraction and production technology, in Central Asia—which is home to almost 15 rare earth elements—will bring an economic boom in the region.
Second, Kazakhstan’s strategic position between Russia, China, and Europe makes it a key link in global supply chains, especially via the Middle Corridor trade route. Additionally, from a geostrategic standpoint, Central Asia’s proximity to Afghanistan is crucial for the US, especially after the US’s 2021 withdrawal from the country. This has been a key focus of US engagement, as outlined in the 2020 strategy. The increased presence of the US in Central Asia and its contribution to regional security will help eliminate cross-border terrorism from Afghanistan and promote increased stability. However, with the change in administration, this is not the primary motive that drives US policy on Central Asia.
Central Asia, with a booming IT sector, is becoming a key exporter of digital services, offering opportunities for US collaboration.
Following new developments in US-Russia relations and a growing impetus to bring a negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine, Washington’s attention will likely shift to curtailing China’s rise. The normalisation of US-Russia relations could result in a possible weakening of the Beijing- Moscow nexus, leading to China strengthening its foothold in Central Asia, especially through continuing Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investments. Further, the receding interest of the US in European security matters and threats of tariffs on the European Union (EU) could lead to a marginal improvement in EU-China economic relations and strengthen the BRI.
The normalisation of US-Russia relations could result in a possible weakening of the Beijing- Moscow nexus, leading to China strengthening its foothold in Central Asia, especially through continuing Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) investments.
To break the chain, the US would want to isolate China by curbing Beijing’s belligerence in the region. China’s regional ambitions, including those in the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific, and via Central Asia to West Asia and Europe, reinforce the US need to isolate China. By increasing engagement with Central Asia, the US can achieve two goals: first, secure an alternative market for critical minerals to reduce China’s monopoly, which was seen when China banned exports of dual-use items to the US in 2024; and second, curb China’s expansionist policies in the region. Further, US support for the Middle Corridor is aimed at challenging China’s monopoly in Central Asia by offering alternative trade routes and regulatory frameworks, bypassing the restrictive agreements of the BRI.
As reiterated by US representatives, repealing the Jackson-Vanik Amendment and introducing initiatives like the Trade Modernization Act will create opportunities for American businesses, support the agricultural industry, and benefit the economy; however, implementation remains uncertain. At present, the US administration is occupied with the prospects of bringing peace in Gaza and Ukraine and is prioritising other domestic issues like curbing illegal immigration and ramping up manufacturing in the US. Thus, improving relations with Central Asia is not a priority. Past discussions and official documents about strengthening relations have not yielded significant results. However, in the future, the increased presence of US businesses in Central Asia could bring considerable benefits to the economies of the CARs, diversifying trade partners while maintaining their multi-vector foreign policies. Yet, the trajectory of cooperation will depend on Trump’s approach to engaging with the region.
Ayushi Saini is Junior Research Fellow at the Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University.
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Ayushi Saini is a Junior Research Fellow at the Centre for Russian and Central AsianStudies, JNU. She works on the intersection of environment and international ...
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