Unless Trump takes a U-turn on his policies, the American-led global alliance system is likely to weaken, if not unravel entirely
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The United States (US) is celebrating the arrival of the second Donald Trump Administration, which it hopes will lead the country to a new era of prosperity and global dominance. Some of America’s main allies, on the other hand, appear down and out. They are bracing to deal with their political or economic problems as well as a US administration that has no love lost for alliances.
Many countries, such as Germany and France, are facing an economic downturn, and others, like Japan and South Korea, face unexpected political headwinds. Their troubles are deep-rooted and need structural reforms in their economic and political spheres. Meanwhile, many are also experiencing a surge of right-wing support riding on opposition to immigration and protectionism.
America’s neighbour and vital security partner, Canada, is undergoing a political crisis as the popularity of Justin Trudeau, in his ninth year as prime minister, has been steadily fading.
Since the onset of the Cold War, the strength of the US has rested on its ability to stitch together alliances across the world. Its 51 allies have given the US its global geopolitical heft and proved useful in projecting its military power, facilitating economic interaction, and projecting shared values. But much of this could be damaged by the twin challenges of an America First policy of Donald Trump and the political and economic stagnation afflicting many key alliance countries.
America’s neighbour and vital security partner, Canada, is undergoing a political crisis as the popularity of Justin Trudeau, in his ninth year as prime minister, has been steadily fading. Faced with problems with immigration, housing, and climate policies, Trudeau is hoping to hang on till the general elections in October 2025, but there seems to be no silver lining in the cloud for him. Confronted now with the threat of 25 percent US tariffs by Trump, Trudeau hastened to Mar-a-Lago to make peace with the new US president-elect. But instead of succour, he got an insulting response from Trump, who called him “Governor of the Great State of Canada”.
Despite a handsome majority, the new Labour government of UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer seems unable to gather momentum to deal with the economic and diplomatic challenges Britain confronts. On the other hand, the Conservative party appears to be mired in a political swamp, and meanwhile, the right-wing Reform UK, headed by Nigel Farage, is working hard to create greater political space for itself. Supported by Donald Trump and endorsed by Elon Musk, its leader Nigel Farage is being spoken of as a likely successor to Starmer.
The Conservative party appears to be mired in a political swamp, and meanwhile, the right-wing Reform UK, headed by Nigel Farage, is working hard to create greater political space for itself.
Germany’s Chancellor Scholz’s coalition has come apart even as the country’s economy remains stuck. This is the second year in a row of negative growth in the country, and though the government projects a return to growth next year onwards, some sceptics say that the export-dependent and manufacturing-heavy German economy will not be out of the woods till it improves its productivity.
Earlier this month, the French government collapsed following a no-confidence vote over Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s deficit-cutting budget. This is, in a way, a fallout of President Macron’s loss in a snap election in the middle of the year. The parliamentary election has divided the Parliament into roughly three groups, with no clear majority for any one group. The right-wing and left-wing groups banded together to vote against Barnier in Parliament. Given that President Macron has changed three prime ministers in 2024, it also reflects the political dysfunction that has gripped the country, which is seeing a surge in the support of the right-wing National Rally (RN) party led by Marine Le Pen.
Turmoil is also hitting America’s East Asian allies. In South Korea, President Yoon Suk Yeol, who was staunchly pro-American, has been impeached after he attempted to declare martial law. The episode has weakened the South Korean government and could lead to a left-wing government in the near future. Earlier in April, Yoon’s Conservative Party suffered a severe setback in the country’s Parliament elections, making his position shaky. These developments could impact the effort to create a South Korea-Japan-US trilateral security structure initiated by President Biden through a summit in Camp David in 2023. Besides this challenge, there is the incoming Trump Administration, which has not shown much inclination in that direction.
The long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost its parliamentary majority after a new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, called snap elections, hoping to capitalise “on a new-leader bounce”.
Japan, too, has seen a political earthquake in recent times, causing it to turn inward. The long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost its parliamentary majority after a new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, called snap elections, hoping to capitalise “on a new-leader bounce”. Though the party remains in power, it has had to bring in new coalition partners. This situation could undercut the positive economic environment that the country has had in the last two years. Equally important will be the impact of for Japan to revise its defence policy and make it more outward-looking.
The immediate prospect is daunting. Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico could be devastating for the US, as well as its two neighbours. High tariffs would also be a major setback for America’s European partners, Germany and France, which will also have to face the challenge of supporting Ukraine against Russia if the US walks away from the task.
For Canada, the US and all the European countries, immigration has emerged as a major issue which is powering a virtual insurgency against established governments. The unseemly haste with which countries like Germany have suspended consideration of residency for Syrian refugees is a testament to the current sensitivity of the issue. There could be wider international repercussions of an “America First” policy, such as encouraging countries like South Korea and even Japan to cross the nuclear threshold. Trump’s handling of both countries during his first Presidency was not very heartening. He demanded increased payments from both to enable US troops to be stationed on their territory.
The unseemly haste with which countries like Germany have suspended consideration of residency for Syrian refugees is a testament to the current sensitivity of the issue.
Equally serious could be an American decision to force Ukraine to ceasefire on terms favourable to Russia. Earlier this month, Trump called for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and said in an interview that he would be open to reducing military aid to Ukraine and pulling the US out of NATO. Such an eventuality would leave the European security system in shambles and compel France and Germany to completely reorient their security policies.
Whether Trump succeeds or fails, there is little doubt that the world order will undergo a churn unlike anything seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Unless Trump takes a U-turn, the American-led global alliance system is likely to weaken, if not unravel entirely. In this scenario, India, with its multi-alignment policy, stands to benefit. We could see the emergence of a truly multi-polar world order.
Manoj Joshi is a Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Manoj Joshi is a Distinguished Fellow at the ORF. He has been a journalist specialising on national and international politics and is a commentator and ...
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