RAND and the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) convened an in-person Track II dialogue in Delhi on September 30, 2024. This is the third dialogue of the series and the second one to be conducted in-person between RAND and ORF.^[1] The dialogue addressed three related but distinct topics: (1) Indian and U.S. security relations with South and Southeast Asian countries and the prospects for arms sales to them by India and the United States, (2) lessons from Indian and U.S. experiences of joint production weapon systems, and (3) next-generation weapon systems, mission capabilities, and the future of warfare.

This Track II dialogue consisted of three panels involving RAND and ORF experts. Each of the chapters deals with one topic addressed by both U.S. and Indian authors, as described below:

• Chapter 2: U.S. Perspective on India and U.S. Security Relations with South and Southeast Asia Countries. John V. Parachini and Rafiq Dossani of RAND discuss the confluence of U.S. and Indian strategic interests and diversification of regional arms markets.
• Chapter 3: Indian Perspective on India and U.S. Security Relations with South and Southeast Asian Countries. Pratnashree Basu of ORF discusses shifts in regional procurement strategies and trends and Indian and U.S. engagement approaches and defense export strategies in the region.
• Chapter 4: U.S. Perspective on Lessons Learned from Joint Production of Weapon Systems. Bruce Held of RAND discusses the forms of defense industrial cooperation and benefits and challenges to them.
• Chapter 5: Indian Perspective on Lessons Learned from Joint Production of Weapon Systems. Amoha Basrur and Prateek Tripathi of ORF discuss mechanisms for co-production; U.S. arrangements with Israel, NATO, and Japan; collaborative defense partnerships in India; U.S.-India partnerships; and challenges and lessons learned from both the United States and India.
• Chapter 6: U.S. Perspective on Next-Generation Weapon Systems, Mission Capabilities, and the Future of Warfare. Randall Steeb of RAND discusses technological changes and their implications for the battlefield, as well as their implications for modernization and co-production.
• Chapter 7: Indian Perspective on Combat Vehicle Mission Capabilities and the Changing Nature of Warfare. Abhishek Sharma and Vivek Mishra of ORF discuss specific markets for combat vehicles in the Asia-Pacific region, with particular attention to South and Southeast Asia and the diversifying arms markets there, as well as growth in U.S. and Indian manufacturing.

John V. Parachini of RAND and Vivek Mishra of ORF summarize lessons across the discussions in Chapter 8.

Developments Since the RAND-ORF Dialogue

While the findings of the September 2024 dialogue remain valid, several events in recent months may affect their interpretation, as well as the U.S.-India relationship.

First, India and China concluded an agreement in October 2024 regarding the withdrawal of Chinese armed forces from a disputed border region. India announced that this withdrawal “re-set” India-China relations back to 2020, or prior to the time the troops were inserted and triggered clashes between China and India. Both countries and the United States heralded the agreement as a positive development. The extent to which this border agreement influences broader relations will likely depend on how related events unfold, such as what the reset in relations means for China-India trade.

Second, the election of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency poses many unknowns to relations between the major powers in the Indo-Pacific region. Bilateral relations between India and the United States have many dimensions. In February 2025, President Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi met and announced the “U.S.-India COMPACT (Catalyzing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce & Technology) for the 21st Century,” an initiative designed to foster cooperation in key areas.^[2] To advance cooperation in the defense sector the two leaders pledged to sign a new ten-year “Framework for the U.S.-India Major Defense Partnership in the 21st Century.”^[3] These initiatives build on a growing defense relationship between the two countries due to their common interests and shared concerns about security developments in the Indo-Pacific region.

Third, recent United States criminal and civil indictments against the Adani Group, its founder, his family members, and key company officials threaten to complicate U.S.-Indian relations. The Adani Group is a major Indian company with close ties to Prime Minister Modi, but the United States is unlikely to tolerate any proven allegations against it.

Fourth, continuing reports of Indian government involvement in targeted assassinations and attempted assassinations against Sikh separatists in the Canada and the United States could damage U.S.-Indian relations. How the incoming Trump administration treats all these issues will provide context to the ongoing efforts of both countries to advance defense industrial collaboration.

Finally, while the military conflict between India and Pakistan of May 2025 is unlikely to affect the trend toward greater U.S.-India cooperation on defense cooperation, it is difficult discern implications with any confidence. Both India and the United States are likely to evaluate the conflict for its impact on the pace of defense cooperation.

References

Parachini, John, Rafiq Dossani, Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Richard S. Girven, Yusuf Unjhawala, Abhijit Singh, Cortez A. Cooper III, and Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, Conference Proceeding on Indian and U.S. Security Cooperation Defense, Production, Indo-Pacific Region, and Afghanistan, RAND Corporation, CF-A2613-1, 2023.

The White House, “United States–India Joint Leaders’ Statement,” February 13, 2025.

^[1] John Parachini, Rafiq Dossani, Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Richard S. Girven, Yusuf Unjhawala, Abhijit Singh, Cortez A. Cooper III, and Shanthie Mariet D’Souza, Conference Proceeding on Indian and U.S. Security Cooperation Defense, Production, Indo-Pacific Region, and Afghanistan, RAND Corporation, CF-A2613-1, 2023.

^[2] The White House, “United States–India Joint Leaders’ Statement,” February 13, 2025.

^[3] The White House, “United States–India Joint Leaders’ Statement.”

• International Affairs
• India
• USA and Canada
• india us security relations
• observer research foundation
• rand corporation
• RAND ORF dialogue
• track 2 diplomacy
• us india defence cooperation

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