“The Sobering Arithmetic of a Two-Front War” report is a quantitative examination of the relative military balance between India, China, and Pakistan in a two-front war using a two-front force ratio metric. It examines the two-front force ratio using 11 conventional equipment variables over a ten-year time period, from 2007 to 2016. The key finding of the report is that this force ratio–never in India's favour to begin with–is currently shifting in favour of the adversary both for the Indian Army as well as–more strikingly–for the Indian Air Force, even after considering smaller fractions of the Chinese military involved in a two-front conflict. The naval picture, when it comes to the time-series trends, is marginally better than that of the other two services, though the force ratios themselves remain problematic for India.
3:00 pm ⎯ 3:30 pm | Registrations
3:30 pm ⎯ 3:35 pm | Introductory remarks by Chair | Amb Rakesh Sood, Distinguished Fellow, ORF
3:30 pm ⎯ 3:50 pm | Presentation by Abhijnan Rej, Senior Fellow, ORF
3:50 pm ⎯ 4.05 pm | Remarks by discussant | Lt Gen (retd) S. L. Narasimhan
4:05 pm ⎯ 4:20 pm | Remarks by discussant | Jayadeva Ranade
4:20 pm ⎯ 5:00 pm | Discussion
5:00 pm onwards | High tea
