Commercial Space Technologies in the Age of Hybrid Wars

Hybrid warfare involves the integration of conventional and unconventional approaches and tools weaponized to keep conflicts below the threshold of full-scale military wars. It also encompasses prolonged low-intensity wars fought on technological, economic, and societal fronts through direct intervention of technologies employed by states and their proxies. The military use of space technology was first observed during the 1990 Gulf War, and subsequently during the 2001 War on Terror, the 2003 Iraq War, and more recently, the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Low-intensity wars in Africa and West Asia have similarly seen the use of covert space technologies to gain tactical advantages. However, the real threat began to surface in the late 2000s, when space assets became easy targets for a grey zone entity that hijacked a communication satellite to broadcast its propaganda message. Today, these grey zone actors subscribe to commercial space data, including both subscription-based geospatial datasets and satellite-internet services. The prospect of such actors engaging in cyber-attacks and taking commercially viable space assets hostage for ransom poses concerns for both intelligence agencies and militaries. These assets have become critical infrastructure for the nation and the commercial entities operating them. Hence, protecting these assets and preventing their use by grey zone actors are economic security priorities. This ORF National Security Dialogue will examine India’s deterrence mechanisms to counter threats arising from such hybrid warfare. The dialogue will concentrate on military, intelligence, and diplomatic strategies, including the necessity to shape new international ‘space technology’ regulations to maintain a ‘rules-based order.’

Driving Questions:

Which grey zone actors across the world have exploited satellite technology in the recent past, and to what consequences?

Are there any regulatory checks and balances for commercial space companies to avert access to non-state actors and in hybrid warfare?

How does India perceive the threat of state-sponsored proxies, terror groups, and non-state actors using internationally available satellite-based services?

Programme