Budapest Global Dialogue

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Deciphering Global Paradoxes: Perceptions, Policies and Strategies in an Uncertain Time

Kicking off the Budapest Global Dialogue, this session will discuss the key political events of 2024, and how they have unlocked new dynamics in global relationships. 

• From censorship to sanctions to terrorism, many of the "old methods" seem to be producing opposite results—and creating a new world in the process. What are the drivers of the coming era, and how will global political actors adapt?

• President Trump's victory has been presented as an upending of the global system. Is the Western alliance system going to be endangered, or grow stronger in the coming years?

• How are stresses in the global system implicating the US-Europe partnership? Is the divergence in responses to these stresses undermining the old order?

• How can different approaches to climate, trade, China and global security be reconciled? How is the new vibrancy in Central and Eastern Europe going to shape this partnership?

Panellists:

Balázs Orbán, Political Director of the Prime Minister of Hungary

Max Abrahms, Associate Professor of Political Science, Northeastern University, United States of America

Velina Tchakarova, Geopolitical Strategist, FACE, Austria

Moderator:

Samir Saran, President, Observer Research Foundation, India

Healing Geopolitics: Rethinking Multilateralism, Plurilateralism and Nationalism

In the third decade of the 21st century, we find ourselves at a pivotal geopolitical moment reminiscent of 1945, where the architecture of global governance stands at a crossroads. The original architects of multilateralism, who shaped the post-War order, have lost both momentum and interest in the multilateral project, underscoring the urgent need for a reformed global framework. The existing multilateral order also finds itself unable to respond effectively and decisively to dynamic threats like conflicts and climate change. These limitations have given rise to minilateral and plurilateral groups driven less by abstract ideals and more by interest-based alignments. Such a trend indicates the locus of power shifting away from collective supranational frameworks towards more localised governance models, thereby challenging the efficacy and relevance of existing multilateral institutions.

• Can alignments based on specific interests and issues, rather than a more enduring worldview, serve as a sustainable foundation for global governance?
• Is belief in sovereignty and the nation-state making a resurgence after decades during which supranational organisations and alliances fostered prosperity and security? If so, what are the underlying reasons for this shift?
• Is there a way multilateral institutions can ensure their effectiveness and make a case for their continued relevance?

Moderator:

Samir Saran, President, Observer Research Foundation, India

Initiators: 

Márton Ugrósdy, Deputy State Secretary, Hungary

Satu Limaye, Vice President, East-West Center; Director of East-West Center in Washington and Research, United States of America

Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, Assistant Professor, National Dong Hwa University, Taiwan

Nicolas Buchoud, Co-founder and President, Renaissance Urbaine, France

Nina Sajič, Professor, Institute of Political Science at the University of Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina

Discussants:

Velina Tchakarova, Geopolitical Strategist, FACE, Austria

Elie Pieprz, Director of International Relations, Israel Defense & Security Forum, Israel

Arta Moeini, Research Director, The Institute of Peace & Diplomacy, United States of America

Max Abrahms, Associate Professor of Political Science, Northeastern University, United States of America

Eleonora Tafuro Ambrosetti, Senior Research Fellow, Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia Center, Italian Institute for International Political Studies, Italy

Ramachandra Byrappa, Senior Research Fellow and Research Coordinator, Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, Hungary 

Michael Reynolds, Associate Professor, Department of Near Eastern Studies, Princeton University, United States of America

Djurkovic Misa, Principal Research Fellow, Institute of European Studies, Serbia

Break

Reclaiming Europe: Scripting Values, Interests & Propositions for the 21st Century

Much is heard about ‘European values’, but the rest of the world is often uncertain about what is meant by the phrase. The actual wishes of Europeans, as expressed through the exercise of their democratic rights, suggest these values are a kaleidoscope rather than a consensus. The question of whether European values and identity emerge from a Christian essence that predates the 21st century, or if they evolve from and with a modern and integrated world, is unanswered. As Europe faces pressing issues like migration and climate change, a further open issue is whether it would be more pragmatic for the EU to clearly define its interests and negotiate with global partners based on material realities rather than to promote an idealised set of values.

• How can the EU reconcile its ambiguous pronouncements on values with its more discernible interests? And does the collective have the necessary consensus and will to do so?
• How is Europe planning to address the challenge of ageing demographics while simultaneously grappling with rising political discontent surrounding migration?
• How does conflict on Europe's periphery influence its role as a security actor? Is Europe becoming increasingly reliant on Washington, or is it solidifying its own security capabilities?
• How can Europe position itself as a cohesive 21st-century bloc when it lacks a unified fiscal, energy, telecommunications, and defence framework—sectors that are pivotal in defining contemporary power?
• Can the Maastricht Treaty be repackaged for the modern day?

Moderator

Balázs Tárnok, Research Director, John Lukacs Institute for Strategy and Politics, Hungary

Initiators:

Jovana Marović, Former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of European Affairs,  Government of Montenegro

Ana Miguel dos Santos, Former member of European Parliament

Janusz Kowalski, Member of Parliament, Poland

István Kiss, Executive Director, Danube Institute, Hungary

Anahide Pilibossian, Vice President of Strategy and Development, Applied Policy Research Institute, Armenia

Discussants:

András Stefanovszky, Head of Department, Cabinet Office of the Prime Minister; Office of the Prime Minister’s Political Director, Department for International Analysis, Hungary 

Vasif Huseynov, Head of Department, Center of Analysis of International Relations, Azerbaijan

Kanchan Gupta, Senior Adviser, Ministry of Information & Broadcasting, Government of India

Liliana Śmiech, Director General for International Affairs, Ludovika University of Public Service, Hungary

Break

Connecting the Dots: Energy, Technology, and Trade

Economics and geopolitics are increasingly intertwined, with energy, technology, and trade emerging as pivotal arenas of both contest and collaboration. Historically, sound economic practices often had to navigate turbulent political landscapes; today, effective geopolitics must address difficult economic instincts, from protectionism to unsustainable debt. Energy, technology and trade policy are profoundly shaped by societal dynamics and conflicts – conflict and policy are both causes and consequences. They are also widening existing divides. The concentrated ownership of artificial intelligence suggests that the victors of past industrial revolutions will dominate the Fourth Industrial Revolution, thereby centralising the economic landscape of the future. Concurrently, fossil fuels and nuclear energy remain integral to our energy mix. Each year seems to herald a new peak in oil production, and it is not the Global South that sustains this trend.

• Is the rise of gated trading arrangements signalling the end of traditional globalisation, prioritising national interests over global cooperation? What implications might this have for the future of international trade?
• Could the sovereign bias on technology platforms ignite a fierce national backlash, challenging their influence and reshaping the landscape of digital governance?
• How do energy security and national security intersect, and in what ways can we anticipate countries to balance between energy-driven growth, peace, and security?

Scene Setter:

Davit Karapetyan, Secretary General, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Armenia

Moderator:

Tamás Baranyi, Director for Strategy, Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, Hungary

Initiators:

Erik Solheim, Former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme

Violeta Bulc, Former European Commissioner for Transport, Slovenia

Sujan Chinoy, Director General, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, India

Arvind Gupta, Head and Co-Founder, Digital India Foundation, India

Tian Huifang, Research Director, China-CEE Institute, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Hungary

Philip Pilkington, Senior Research Fellow, Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, Hungary

David Goldman, Deputy Editor, Asia Times; Washington Fellow, Claremont Institute, United States of America

Discussants:

Ashok Malik, Partner, The Asia Group, India

Ceyhun Emre Doğru, Managing Partner, CORPERA Consulting, Türkiye

Péter Kránitz, Senior Research Fellow, Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, Hungary

Carlos Roa, Contributing Editor, The National Interest, United States of America

Mentor Beqa, Executive Director, Sami Frashëri Institute, Albania

Naoyuki Yoshino, Professor Emeritus, Keio University, Japan

Break

Bridging Hemispheres: Europe and the Global South

Two decades into the 21st century, relations between the Global South and Europe are at a crossroads. While the EU has rededicated itself to global sustainable development, questions about how this will be financed are increasingly being asked. Measures like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and other unilateral trade measures exacerbate these tensions further. The Global South anticipates investment from the Global North; however, the developed world has instead earmarked these funds to address its own discontented and deprived regions.

• Can increased migration be a viable alternative to the European Union's responsibilities toward sustainable development in the developing world? Or is this a dangerous cop-out?
• How do shifting geopolitical alliances, particularly with powers like Russia and China, alter the dynamics between Europe and developing nations?
• How can the EU and countries in the Global South establish partnerships that prioritise mutual respect and understanding, and foster genuine collaboration on shared global challenges?

Moderator:

Noémi Pálfalvi. Director of International Relations, Mathias Corvinus Collegium, Hungary

Initiators:

Petr Drulák, Former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Czechia

Ákos Mernyei, adviser to the President, Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, Hungary

Ayoade Alakija, Chair, Board of Directors, FIND; Co-Chair, G7 Impact Investment Initiative in Global Health, United Kingdom

Jerzy Kwaśniewski, President of the Board, Ordo Iuris Institute for Legal Culture, Poland

Ralph Schoellhammer, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Webster University Vienna, Austria

Fulufhelo Netswera, Founding Member, South African BRICS Think Tank, South Africa

Discussants:

András Király, Former Ambassador of Hungary to India 

Rami Desai, Distinguished Fellow, India Foundation, India

Teenah Jutton, Parliamentary Private Secretary, Mauritius

Réka Máthé, Research fellow, Europe Strategy Research Institute,  Ludovika University of Public Service, Hungary

Kwame Owino, Chief Executive Officer, Institute of Economic Affairs, Kenya

Abdeta Beyene, Executive Director, Centre for Dialogue, Research and Cooperation, Ethiopia

Krzysztof Zalewski, President, Micha Boym Institute for Asian and Global Studies, Poland

György Ilyásh, Researcher, Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade, Hungary

Transition Time

Venue: Károlyi-Csekonics Palota

Predictions & Reflections: What Lies Ahead for the World Order?

2024 was a year of both elections and reckoning. Innovations in renewable energy, autonomous travel, and healthcare technologies offered solutions to urgent challenges. However, global conflicts and climate crises also emerged as significant threats, casting a pall as we enter 2025. This panel will explore the promises and perils ahead, assessing the potential for a more peaceful and prosperous 2025.

• What was the biggest lesson of 2024?
• What are the three significant political developments that could make the next year more prosperous than the last?
• What are the three emerging perils that could define the year?
• How has the landscape changed given the major elections of 2024? How might Trump 2.0 alter geopolitical equations? 
• In your assessment, what are the EU’s options and how do they balance Trump, China, and Russia?

Panellists:

Eric Li, Founder, Guancha.cn, China 

Jeffrey Sachs, Economist, Public Policy Analyst, United States of America (Virtual)

Gladden Pappin, President, Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, Hungary

Moderator:

Lilla Kakuk, Adviser to the President, Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, Hungary

Closing Remarks

Samir Saran, President, Observer Research Foundation, India

Dinner and Reception

Energising Aspirations: The Global Tug-of-War for Power

Contemporary economic history has made it clear that access to reliable and affordable energy is the secret key to fulfilling the aspirations of people in Africa, Europe, and the Indo Pacific. Energy access has not only been constrained and contested by the need to preserve the planet, but geopolitical divisions and recent conflicts have also further complicated energy access for countries across the world.

• Is there a chance of returning to a global integrated energy market, or are we living in a new normal of fragmentation in energy markets?
• How can nations ensure energy security and affordable energy access amidst geopolitical tensions?
• The transportation sector is a significant consumer of fossil fuels globally, with substantial implications for energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. What specific strategies and technologies can be implemented to accelerate this transition towards sustainable mobility?
• Has COP emerged as a “cop-out” for developed countries by allowing them to shift blame onto developing countries while failing to take full responsibility for their historical and current contributions to greenhouse-gas emissions?

Violeta Bulc, Former European Commissioner for Transport, Slovenia

Michael Reynolds, Associate Professor, Department of Near Eastern Studies, Princeton University, United States of America

Moderator: 

András Király, Former Ambassador of Hungary to India 

Rising Together: The New Power Players in a Shifting World

While the semantics surrounding the definition and composition of the Global South can be debated, its rising prominence is undeniable. As the developed world grapples with sluggish growth and demographic challenges, this emerging bloc now constitutes 85% of the world’s population and nearly 60% of global GDP on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis.

• Can the individual nations of the Global South continue their upward economic trajectory and chart an independent path in a fractured multipolar world order?
• Can the Global South successfully reform the international governance and monetary architectures and increase their representation in these 20th -century relics?
• Will this coalition leverage its collective strength to redefine global governance, or will it succumb to the pressures of existing power dynamics?

Ayoade Alakija, Chair, Board of Directors, FIND; Co-Chair, G7 Impact Investment Initiative in Global Health, United Kingdom

Velina Tchakarova, Geopolitical Strategist, FACE, Austria

Moderator:

Philip Pilkington, Senior Research Fellow, Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, Hungary

Monroe 2.0: A New Transatlantic Paradigm

Transatlantic cooperation, long the cornerstone of the post-World War II order, is now facing significant challenges. Western Europe, which has largely relied on the United States for strategic decision-making and defence, must confront a new reality characterised by a more isolationist American administration.

• How will the current fragile state of the transatlantic alliance influence the geopolitical landscape, particularly regarding relations with China and Russia?
• What does the future of NATO look like with a potentially less committed United States?
• Can Europe successfully navigate an “America First” strategy and become more self-reliant?

Carlos Roa, Contributing Editor, The National Interest, United States of America

Janusz Kowalski, Member of Parliament, Poland

Moderator:

Ashok Malik, Partner, The Asia Group, India

G2: The New World Order or Just Another Cold War

The evolving dynamics between the United States and China have significant implications for global governance. As these two superpowers navigate their complex relationship, it will remain uncertain if the G-2 is a promising avenue for international stability or merely an illusion that could intensify existing tensions.

• What does it mean for the attempt to create a more inclusive global governance structure if power is being shared or divided between two superpowers? How does this impact the development and growth priorities of other nations including in the global south
• What role can the rest of us play in shaping the dynamics of U.S.-China relations?
• What implications does the G-2 framework have for multilateral institutions like the G20 and UN in addressing global challenges?
• Will a new world of tariffs increase or decrease economic security for nations of Europe, Africa, and the Indo Pacific ?

Eric Li, Founder, Guancha.cn, China

Márton Ugrósdy, Deputy State Secretary, Hungary

Moderator:

Rami Desai, Distinguished Fellow, India Foundation, India

Building Bridges: Infrastructure as the New Geopolitical Glue

In an era characterised by dynamic geopolitics, concerted efforts are underway to reestablish historical connections that have been lost to 20th-century fissures. By integrating modern logistical capabilities and legacy trade routes, these initiatives not only facilitate the flow of goods but also promote a profound cultural exchange, reshaping relationships among nations and paving the way for a more interconnected future.

• How can infrastructure partnerships serve as a tool for geopolitical reconciliation and economic revitalisation?
• What role do multilateral and minilateral groupings play in promoting infrastructure projects aimed at bridging geopolitical divides?
• What lessons can be learned from past infrastructure projects that aimed to reconnect divided regions, and how can these lessons inform future initiatives?

Erik Solheim, Former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme

Djurkovic Misa Principal Research Fellow, Institute of European Studies, Serbia

Moderator:

Anahide Pilibossian, Vice President of Strategy and Development, Applied Policy Research Institute, Armenia