Afghanistan: Making sense of the status quo

This event is part of the series “The Neighbourhood Scope,” a monthly feature of the Strategic Studies Programme that intends to rekindle key conversations, questions, and debates concerning India’s neighbourhood.

Since the Taliban's return to power in August 2021, Afghanistan has been navigating a complex landscape of political, social, and economic challenges with significant implications both domestically and internationally. The cleavages between the Kabul and Kandahar based factions of the Taliban have grown over the last three years with the Emir, Haibatullah Akhundzada consolidating power in his own hands. Recent reports about him deploying his forces to key locations in Kabul reflect these differences. In parallel, the Taliban's increasingly restrictive policies toward women have drawn global condemnation and raised serious concerns about the future of Afghan women and girls. The flow of aid inside the country is dismal even as 23.7 million people need some sort of support. The recent cessation of USAID operations has intensified these issues, leading to widespread disruptions in humanitarian assistance and essential services. Amid these internal challenges, regional dynamics are evolving as countries have started engaging with the group in different degrees to secure their own interests. The security situation remains precarious, with escalating clashes along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and a surge in terror attacks. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan have engaged in strikes and counterstrikes, further raising security concerns.

Is Afghanistan again on the precipice of becoming a terror haven once again? Do you think the internal differences within the group can metamorphose into outright dissent or will the regime successfully prioritise cohesion? How has the engagement by the international community evolved over the last three years? Is de jure recognition on the cards? How do you perceive the situation for the common Afghans- particularly women and minorities? Has the Taliban been successful in bringing some sort of economic stability in the country?