A world shaped by alliances has foresight, predictability, and clear zones of cooperation and contestation. Today, geopolitics has changed: action demands agility instead. Countries find themselves in accidental alignments – pulled together by structural forces, overlapping incentives, and the complex logic of multilateral platforms. 

Nations that eye each other uneasily over disputed borders might still collaborate on investment priorities; those that compete over technology can nevertheless work together on climate change. This panel examines the global geometry of chance, and asks whether accidental partnerships might eventually lead to stable co-operation, or instead intensify underlying contradictions.  

• Do transactional, incentive-based partnerships possess any advantages when compared to alliances of the past that were designed around shared values and treaty commitments? 
• Can nations competing on technology and security nevertheless work together to effectively reshape investment flows and accelerate climate action? How durable are such partnerships? 
• How must diplomats and diplomacy change their tone, tactics, and methods to manage the possibility that the other party might simultaneously be a strategic partner, competitor, and threat?  
• If shared values and alliance commitments lose their effectiveness as geopolitical glue, how can countries discover what leverage they possess? 
• Can we ensure that those who do not possess sufficient leverage are nonetheless protected?  
   

Speakers  

Vikram Misri, Foreign Secretary, India  

Stephen Harper, Former Prime Minister, Canada 

Comfort Ero, President and Chief Executive Officer, International Crisis Group, United Kingdom

Leslie Vinjamuri, President and Chief Executive Officer, Chicago Council on Global Affairs, United States of America  

Philippe Varin, Chair of the International Chamber of Commerce, France

Moderator

Samir Saran, President, Observer Research Foundation, India