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US lawmakers have sought to make several commendable moves but their plan still comes up short

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has served as a laboratory test to assess the effectiveness of Cyber Warfare (CW) capabilities. It would be misleading, however, to extrapolate sweeping conclusions from this conflict about the relative ineffectiveness of CW. Rather, diligence should be exercised by Indian strategic and military planners in assessing the CW capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force (PLASSF) and enhancing

Even as Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) promise to revolutionise the battlefield, very little analysis moves beyond the great powers to examine the interests that middle powers may have in these systems. Shaped by their own geostrategic contexts, demographic issues and geography challenges, countries like India, South Korea, Indonesia or the Philippines may find utility in LAWS for improving the efficiency of their forces, reducing both

Intelligence is the first line of defence in any war, be it a conventional war or a war against terrorism. The American security apparatus has readjusted itself well, in almost all the areas of modern warfare in the post cold war era. However, the recent American failures indicate that still much needs to be done in of the areas of modern day warfare, and that is intelligence gathering.

The current series of notifications issued by the Central Government has the potential to create a 'police raj', under the Intelligence Bureau, when that may not be the intention even of the Union Home Ministry.

Since the onset of the twenty-first century, China has employed various instruments of exchange diplomacy to overcome its historical 'century of humiliation’ and realise its 'Middle Kingdom’ dream. Riding on the platform of the Belt and Road Initiative, China has leveraged its strong economy and large human resources through tourism, education, and sister-city arrangements to strengthen people-to-people contact between its citizens, diaspora,

I have been in receipt of some mail from my readers asking for my comments on the reports carried by the "Washington Post" and the CNN TV channel of the US during the week-end regarding the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) of the USA setting up a new intelligence collection unit called the Strategic Support Branch (SSB), which has been operating in Iraq, Afghanistan and other countries since 2002.

The exasperation of Porter Goss, the Director of the US' Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), with Pakistan's role in the hunt for Osama bin Laden and other remnants of the Al Qaeda, is evident from his remarks on bin Laden during an interview with the "Time" magazine which has been carried by it this week

Technological advancement in artificial intelligence has created a situation where the deployment of Lethal Autonomous Weapons has become practically, if not legally, possible within a few years. As the international community struggles to arrive at a definition of ‘autonomous weapons’, the need to regulate their use has become paramount. Apart from the legal and ethical considerations in the use of autonomous weapons, there are also con

The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) appears to be gaining momentum in formulating collective strategies to combat non-traditional security threats in the subregion. This brief describes how BIMSTEC had focused on bilateralism or trilateralism from its inception in 1997 until 2015, thereby failing to pursue a more comprehensive and long-term approach to addressing the common threats to their

This paper investigates, in the context of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or Quad, the burgeoning threats posed by cyber mercenaries acting as proxies for revisionist states bent on destabilising the institutions and societies of adversary nations. The paper offers essential definitions of what comprises cybersecurity threats, including cyber mercenaries, and delineates current trends. Drawing on open-source intelligence and insights from cy

This paper dissects the causes behind Pakistan’s ongoing economic crisis. The causes include dwindling forex reserves, the phenomenon of ‘galloping inflation’, a falling Pakistani Rupee, uncompetitive and undiversified export basket, burgeoning external debt, lack of fiscal prudence, debt distress, and a worsening business environment—all cascading to a balance of payment crisis. While austerity measures, appeals for loan rollover to debt

Recent grey-zone activity in maritime-Asia suggests an increase in hybrid warfare, even as the lines between military, economic, diplomatic, intelligence and criminal means of aggression become increasingly blurred. By replacing overt military aggression with soft provocations – kept well below the threshold of open warfare – aggressors attempt to leverage asymmetry, ambiguity and incrementalism for strategic effects. These tactics are highly

The rapidly changing battlefield—framed by emerging transnational threats and the rising influence of public opinion—has transformed military diplomacy; today the focus is shifting from traditional combat to joint multinational operations and non-combat activities. Since the early 21st century, China has modernised its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and expanded military diplomacy to protect the country’s interests. Using civil-military f

The Economist Intelligence Unit’s democracy framework, by being blind to history and to context, is not doing itself any favours.

Various Indian states have attempted to implement their respective deradicalisation programmes to counter radicalised thought amongst those identified as being at-risk, as well as those contemplating on joining, or are returning after having joined terror groups. Maharashtra and Kerala, for example, claim that their programmes are a success. Yet little is known regarding the structure of these deradicalisation programmes, their implementation, th

The use of drones or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), both for military and civilian purposes, has increased in India in the past decade. At the same time, counter-drone systems are also being developed to address the threats posed by UAVs. How effective are these counter-drone mechanisms? This brief explores this question, and offers suggestions for India to reduce the growing threat from drones. Any evaluation of the efficacy of anti-drone syst

India, like much of the rest of the world, is faced with the twin but opposing conditions of economic potential and social concerns that need to be negotiated to realise the digital dividends from artificial intelligence (AI) and achieve sustainable and balanced growth. AI systems involve layers of technological dependencies that necessitate and enable social and institutional interdependency between stakeholders, enabling conditions, and resourc

This paper assesses how a transformational technology like Artificial Intelligence (AI) can be used by malicious actors to manipulate information and influence election results. It analyses the impact of such activities, and explores ways by which democratic polities can address this challenge. Reviewing cases from India and other countries in South Asia, and the United States, the paper also looks at the required regulatory landscape. It outline

Cyber Warfare (CW) and Electronic Warfare (EW) are crucial to combat in modern warfare. Both are products of Signals Intelligence and constitute one part of Information Warfare (IW) and what is known as Network Centric Warfare (NCW). This paper explores how the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China and the Indian Army (IA) have approached CW and EW. Both the PLA and the IA acknowledge NCW as doctrinally important. Organisationally and in Comm

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has already made inroads into healthcare. The increasing availability of healthcare data has allowed for the deployment of powerful AI techniques to assist drug development as well as clinical practice. These run the gamut from machine learning (ML) techniques that analyse structured data, to natural language processing (NLP) that can extract meaningful information from unstructured data, such as doctors’ notes. Thi

In recent years, different research institutions, government bodies, and private entities across countries have issued principles and guidelines for the ethical use of Artificial Intelligence (AI). There is little consensus, however, over universal ethical principles and how to implement them. What are the similarities and differences in AI ethics discussions across geographies, and what are the existing gaps? Crucially, if the larger goa

The immediate concerted European response in the aftermath of Madrid blasts on March 11, 2004 was the creation of the post of a Counter-Terrorism Coordinator, who would directly work under the European Union (EU) High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana. In fact, the idea of effective counter-terror coordination and intelligence sharing

The immediate concerted European response in the aftermath of Madrid blasts on March 11, 2004 was the creation of the post of a Counter-Terrorism Coordinator, who would directly work under the European Union (EU) High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana. In fact, the idea of effective counter-terror coordination and intelligence sharing

The US Quadrennial Defense Review panel's recent (July 29, 2010) report to the US Congress had a very telling remark about Pakistan Army and its intelligence agencies which raises a whole new spectre of violence the world is likely to confront in the years ahead.

Defence structures around the world are seeing a technological upheaving as new and emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) are being added to military arsenals. However, military AI largely lacks precision and is often developed without any threat-modelling which takes gender into account, examples of which are already being seen in civilian applications of AI. Translated into a conflict environment, deploying such AI systems cou

On August 12, 2016 the Observer Research Foundation convened the first in a series of multistakeholder roundtables on encryption. This report is the outcome of the discussion of issues and proposal of solutions conducted at the roundtable. Being a complex, technical-legal question around access to data for law enforcement, encryption has long been a contested issue. Creating best-in-class regulation on encryption will require targeted interventio

International jihadi terrorism of the Al Qaeda model will continue to pose the most serious challenge to the intelligence and counter-terrorism agencies and the police forces of the world in the short and medium terms, that is, for another five to 10 years. It shows no signs of any dilution of motivation and determination.

The story began on March 18th, when Pakistan¿s leader Gen. Pervez Musharraf casually mentioned in an interview with CNN¿s Aaron Brown that it is likely that Pakistani troops have surrounded a ¿High Value Target¿ in the tribal ¿agency¿ of South Waziristan. Some enterprising Pakistani ¿intelligence official¿ leaked to the eager

Terrorists have taken to the use of social media networks in a big way. This brings us back to the old dilemma of how much data is information and how much information is adequate intelligence. The other dilemma is how much surveillance is enough for security. The third dilemma is how much liberty is to be sacrificed for security.

Intelligence agencies are prone to exaggerate an adversary’s capabilities. Indian intelligence in the mid-1970s, meanwhile, severely underestimated Pakistan’s nuclear cunning. For a crucial part of those years, India could not identify AQ Khan’s clandestine nuclear activities to acquire Uranium enrichment technology. This brief names three reasons: hubris, biases, and overlearning from one’s experiences. For New Delhi, this is as much a p

Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence, which is threatened by the formation of the Narendra Modi government in Delhi, have been reactivating networks of LeT and Jaish-e-Mohammad in Kashmir since May/June 2013.

Al-Qaida has put Pakistan at the top of its priorities. Its leaders judge Pakistan as the most vulnerable country for them to hijack, while independent estimates by security and intelligence officials suggest that Pakistan has the capability to add 8-10 China-model low-yield nuclear weapons in its kitty every year.

After the attacks, which killed more than 250 people, making it one of the most successful pro-ISIS attacks anywhere, information was leaked out to the Indian press that New Delhi shared intelligence with Colombo of an impending attack of similar nature.

For Pakistan’s military-intelligence apparatus — targeting India is the best way to ensure their centrality.

No Indian terrorist group is co-operating with the international jihadi terrorist movement headed by Al Qaeda.However, certain Pakistani jihadi terrorist organisations, which are members of bin Laden's International Islamic Front (IIF), are being used by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) for organising terrorist attacks in Jammu & Kashmir (J) and other parts of India.

Beijing’s latest gambit is the release of a media report on the development of cruise missiles with artificial intelligence and autonomous capabilities.

Iraq continues to be the main hub of jihadi terrorism, with a very high level of suicide terrorism indicating that there has been no weakening in the morale and motivation of the terrorists and resistance fighters. Nor has there been any noticeable improvement in the intelligence-collection capability of the US-led coalition despite periodic claims of capture of terrorists of various hues. In an insurgency-cum-terrorism affected situation,

To any intelligence analyst, it should be obvious that the US has already embarked on a psychological warfare (PSYWAR) campaign to keep Iran on tenterhooks in the hope of thereby breaking its will to resist US pressure to agree to the dismantling of its uranium enrichment capability.

Current discussions around the macroeconomic impacts of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) and its effects on the future of work tend to be sensationalist. Unlike previous waves of automation, GenAI has the capacity to affect tasks and professions of capital holders—or white-collar workers—as well as blue-collar workers—and can also contribute to a widening of the gender gap. Capital holders must strengthen the human aspects of work

The post of Director-General (DG) of Pakistan's premier intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), believed to be the second most important post in the country's military set-up now, has a designated successor to the outgoing Lt-Gen Zaheerul Islam.

In the absence of clear norms on human accountability and attribution for autonomous weapons, we could see states like Pakistan deploy LAWS for operations outside their borders.

The rapid uptake of artificial intelligence (AI) in the military in the past couple decades has been accompanied by a slow but gradual build-up in attempts to understand how these AI systems work to achieve better results in military operations. The idea behind what is called ‘eXplainable AI’ (XAI), and the technologies driving it, are a manifestation of this trend. The question, however, is if XAI in its current form is the solution

There are quite a few things which are known about Maulana Azam Tariq, chief of the banned Sunni extremist group, Sipah-e-Sahaba (SSP), who was shot dead in broad daylight in Islamabad on October 6. What is not so well-known is that the Maulana and his organisation had a cosy working relationship with Pakistan's intelligence and security forces for more than a decade.