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The nation-state will remain the fundamental unit of reckoning in the international system, but it will have to reckon, almost Brownian-motion-like, with other units and stakeholders in a fluid medium where disorder may have both permanence and legitimacy.

In August 2019, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released its final guidelines for a regulatory sandbox for fintech firms.[1] Technology innovations are disrupting the traditional financial sector, and the RBI’s regulatory sandbox exercise is an attempt to be more agile and absorb some of this disruption. ‘Sandboxes’ give regulators a chance to work with fintech innovators, mitigate potential risks and develop evidence-based policy, while fi

US President Donald Trump’s ham-handed handling of global diplomacy has once again brought the world back to early 1990s when the threat of American unipolarity drove countries like Russia, China and India towards collective action.

The COVID-19 outbreak poses immense challenges to Africa’s resilience. The pandemic’s economic fallout, caused by disruptions in global and regional value chains and a slump in commodity prices, can derail the progress which the continent has recorded in recent years. Despite the bleak forecasts, however, African countries have managed to mount a concerted response to the pandemic. This paper examines the extent of the economic and health imp

It has historically been assumed that while the nature of war remains the same—i.e., violence inflicted on the adversary to bend them to one’s will—the character of warfare changes with technology, organisation, politics and culture. This notion has changed. Over the past decade, the nature of war has also changed, with increased use of non-contact and non-kinetic modes of warfare expanding the battlefield spatially and temporally.

As extreme events are becoming the ‘new normal’ in an increasingly climate-constrained world, India’s critical infrastructure must be built to withstand, respond to, and recover rapidly from the disruptions they cause

The Chinese side noted that the explosion incident and back-to-back targeted killings triggered serious concerns among consumers in Arab countries about the security of electronic products produced in or whose supply chains are controlled by the West.

India’s critical water infrastructure must be built to withstand, respond to, and recover rapidly from climate disruptions

Pakistan has been one of the countries worst affected by COVID-19, with the economic disruption caused by the pandemic exacerbating an already existing crisis. This paper discusses how the public health crisis has affected some of the most critical sectors of the Pakistani economy. While the government has implemented some mitigation measures, they are inadequate to counter the impact of the pandemic. The paper analyses the likely fallout of a ne

This paper investigates, in the context of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or Quad, the burgeoning threats posed by cyber mercenaries acting as proxies for revisionist states bent on destabilising the institutions and societies of adversary nations. The paper offers essential definitions of what comprises cybersecurity threats, including cyber mercenaries, and delineates current trends. Drawing on open-source intelligence and insights from cy

This paper dissects the causes behind Pakistan’s ongoing economic crisis. The causes include dwindling forex reserves, the phenomenon of ‘galloping inflation’, a falling Pakistani Rupee, uncompetitive and undiversified export basket, burgeoning external debt, lack of fiscal prudence, debt distress, and a worsening business environment—all cascading to a balance of payment crisis. While austerity measures, appeals for loan rollover to debt

Market disruptions and strategic concerns, followed by rapid diffusion, marked the sensational launch of China’s DeepSeek in January this year. This brief highlights how China’s ‘DeepSeek moment’ has unfolded within the wider context of its military might, manufacturing prowess, and robust network of regional and international institutions. It argues that the event introduced dimensions of national and economic security into the cascading

Across the globe, more than 730 million women report ever having experienced some form of gender-based violence; those in low- and lower-middle-income countries are disproportionately affected. In the past two years, the COVID-19 pandemic has only increased the incidence of violence suffered by women in the hands of their intimate partners, owing to heightened stresses of loss of livelihood, disruption of social and protective networks, a

In this age of constant disruption, organisations need to view the world as an intense 90-minute football game — dynamic, constantly-changing, unpredictable.

States are no longer insulated from distant geopolitical realities. As India has witnessed, trade and supply chain linkages can extend conflicts to uninvolved states

Transformative change is disruptive. We have been slow in embedding credible instruments to mitigate the cost of disruption.

The United States (US)-China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic fundamentally altered global trade patterns, revealing critical supply chain vulnerabilities. US tariffs pushed companies to shift manufacturing to more favourable locations, accelerating “friendshoring” to countries like India and Vietnam. The “China plus one” strategy has bolstered domestic manufacturing and attracted foreign investment through Production Linked Incentive

Global energy markets have battled continuous uncertainty over the past three years, disrupted first by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, and by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. India has been adept at navigating both these disruptions, using economic diplomacy to position itself favourably in the geopolitics of oil. New Delhi’s delicate balancing of its political relationship with both Washington DC and Moscow has been accompanied

The uncertainty and possible further disruptions in the defense supply chain out of Russia could accelerate India’s diversification and indigenization efforts.

In response to their experience of western colonialism, countries like China and India have sought to develop their own, indigenous and autonomous technology base. China, in the last 30 years, has succeeded in this endeavour, becoming a major manufacturing power and adopting policies to develop and market its own technologies. Such success, however, is not without critics. Developed countries, especially the US which is its principal trading part

The United States (US)-led global economic order has survived crises through structural adjustments and institutional flexibility. Yet, even as it may withstand the disruptions of Donald Trump’s presidency, more fundamental shifts are underway. This brief examines whether recent developments in US trade and monetary policies are temporary disturbances or signals of structural transformations. Early signs suggest that while dollar centrality end

Current discussions around the macroeconomic impacts of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) and its effects on the future of work tend to be sensationalist. Unlike previous waves of automation, GenAI has the capacity to affect tasks and professions of capital holders—or white-collar workers—as well as blue-collar workers—and can also contribute to a widening of the gender gap. Capital holders must strengthen the human aspects of work

The global macroeconomy has undergone unprecedented change in recent years, particularly because of the COVID-19 pandemic. While the G20 had an effective coordinating role in steering the global economy through the 2008 global financial crisis, its role in engineering an inclusive and sustainable recovery from the pandemic has been more mixed. Incomes in the advanced G20 economies are on track to return to pre-pandemic levels by end-2022 but have

In recent years, India’s coastal regions have become more vulnerable to multiple risks related to climate change. Intense and more frequent cyclones such as the recent Fani, Gaja and Hudhud as well as severe floods have caused massive devastation to the country’s coastal states. While efficient disaster preparedness in many of these states has helped save many lives, there remain significant challenges in rebuilding damaged infrastructure and

The evolving contours of modern geopolitics is still in a state of flux, and there is wisdom in accepting the notion that the end result is perhaps indeterminable. The age of disruption is here, countries that thrive on disorder may do well in the short term, while nations who invest in stability may well define the future of globalisation and, indeed, the new world order

The world faces risks as hard power and geopolitics turn oceans and trade routes into theatres of conflict. Outcomes could reshape the global balance of power, but the toll taken on the world must be kept to a minimum. The last threads in the warp and weft of global ties mustn’t be allowed to snap.

A week ago, oil giant Chevron-Texaco's Nigerian unit decided to keep its production of 23,000 barrels a day shut till its oil facilities attacked and damaged by members of the Ijaw tribe are found to be in order. Disruption of oil operations, hostage taking, inter-ethnic clashes are not new for Nigeria¿s oil-rich Niger Delta.

Africa is experiencing a food crisis on an unprecedented scale. More than 150 million people in the continent are anticipated to be in danger of increased levels of hunger in the immediate future because of the impacts of the conflict in Ukraine, compounded by climate-related variability and extremes, economic slowdowns, and the lingering consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Within this context, social and gender disparities are increasing, wit

The COVID-19 pandemic is taking an enormous toll on health systems across the world. A growing concern is that efforts to manage the pandemic are undermining care for serious non-Covid illnesses such as cancer. In the UK and US, for example, it is estimated that delays in cancer diagnosis and treatment due to COVID-19 will lead to excess cancer deaths in the range of tens of thousands within a year. In India, where health systems are weak, it is

The COVID-19 pandemic has made clear that global health crises are geopolitical events with far-reaching and long-lasting effects across the globe. It creates prodigious disruptions across economic, security, and social sectors, with spillover effects through trade, financial linkages, and tourism, to name the least. This essay argues that as the American-led order in Asia arguably falters, instead of China rushing to fill the post COVID-19 vacuu

Trump’s self sufficiency route has short-term gains but Modi’s diversified sourcing is a better long-term bet

Recent geopolitical disruptions and India’s geoeconomic and geopolitical ambitions necessitate the building of new, more reliable multimodal trade corridors. This report examines the strategic importance for New Delhi of the ten-year agreement on Chabahar Port in Iran, and how it aligns with India’s ‘Connect Central Asia Policy’ and historical ties with the region. The Chabahar Port, along with the International North-South Trade Corridor

In the last two decades, the world has witnessed disease outbreaks that have resulted in massive loss of lives and economic disruptions.[1]  The current pandemic of the novel coronavirus or SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19, might still not be the last of the pandemics that the world will suffer in the years to come—as long as human activities that use natural resources beyond their capacities, resulting in the spread of viruses, continue unab

The Eastern Corridor is a crucial highway for global trade flows, where any disruption could severely affect the global economy. The route comprises some of the world’s most vulnerable Sea Lanes of Communication (SCLOs), with potential flashpoints such as the South China Sea. For years, these SLOCs have been characterised by tensions in South Asia and Southeast Asia; the more recent years are seeing a heightening of both intent and capacity for

Care work, both paid and unpaid, is at the heart of most economies. The care sector comprises formal healthcare, childcare services, early childhood education, disability and long-term care, and eldercare. Two-thirds of care workers globally are women, and women and girls perform more than three-quarters of all unpaid care work. The COVID-19 pandemic has amplified the vulnerability of care workers and deepened the gender gap. This paper a

The Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship (MSDE) must account for the possibility of interstate migration, rapid urbanisation and possible changes in the social fabric as populations react to new job opportunities.

Undersea cables must be understood as critical infrastructure, and their vulnerability – to intentional tampering and accidental damage – acknowledged.

A pandemic of the viral disease COVID-19 has reached millions of people around the world with significant rates of mortality. With no specific treatments or vaccines in the immediate horizon, limiting contact with infected persons, the use of masks, and hand hygiene offer the only mitigation for now. This has led most countries to adopt severe isolation measures, which have in turn caused disruption of economic activity and increased unemployment

This paper analyses the contentious idea of a nexus between public opinion and foreign policy agendas, focusing on the Indian context. The paper examines the history of the discourse and outlines the key ideological divergences and events that have shaped the inquiry. It then traces the public opinion-foreign policy linkage in the Indian context, and frames the analysis against other representative democracies, specifically the United States. Usi

The drastic and sudden drop in Venezuelan and Iranian oil exports to India in 2019-2020, due to the looming threat of US secondary sanctions, is the latest supply chain disruption to India’s energy security. To avoid similar disruptions in the future, India must act decisively to increase its Strategic Petroleum Reserves to meet at least 90 days of emergency oil stocks, and combine lobbying efforts between India’s private and public oil compa

With tectonic and technological challenges causing disruptions, the neat correlation of a big economy with big power that bears big responsibilities is under scrutiny.

Hasina’s victory will likely put Delhi-Dhaka relations under more scrutiny -with the West expecting India to be vocal about the state of democracy in Bangladesh

The revised length of India’s coastline has also thrown up a critical reality of the diminished difference of India’s territorial and maritime borders.

शेख हसीना यांच्या विजयामुळे भारत आणि बांगलादेशाचे सबंधांवर आणखीन शंका वाढण्याची शक्यता आहे. बांगलादेशातील लोकशाहीच्या स्थितीबद्दल भारताने आवाज उठवावा अशी पश्चिमेची �

भू-राजकीय अडथळे आणि आर्थिक मंदीच्या काळात नेतृत्व करण्यासाठी, भारताने सुधारणांच्या पातळीवर लक्ष दिले पाहिजे. कारण भारत जागतिक विकासात आघाडीवर आहे.