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The sweeping victory for the Tamil National Alliance in Saturday's first-ever Northern Provincial Council in Sri Lanka has a message for various stake-holders nearer home and afar.

By focusing excessively on 'war crimes' and issues of accountability, the international community (West) may have taken Sri Lanka away from the political negotiations for power-devolution to the Provinces, particularly the Tamil Province(s).

At the UNHRC session next month, India should take the initiative to work out a consensus resolution, where not just the Sri Lanka-related 'accountability' concerns of the West but also the competing counter-concerns of 'friends of Sri Lanka' are also addressed.

No other dispute, including the sensitive 'ethnic row', impacts as much on India-Sri Lanka relations than the 'fishing issue', particularly over the medium and long terms. Much as the Government of India is keen on seeing a negotiated settlement to the ethnic issue, the political solution would still have to be thrashed out by the stake-holders in Sri Lanka.

Reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping had proposed trilateral talks involving the shared Indian neighbour at a meeting with visiting Sri Lankan counterpart Maithripala Sirisena should make New Delhi sit up and take notice.

Now there is a consistent and continuing apprehension about the West coming up with a draft at the Geneva session that will have greater acceptability in the UNHRC already. It is here India may be called upon to take a position all over again.

The increasing effort at marginalisation of Sri Lanka in the international arena, with hopes that a vote against the country at UNHRC could well shame the Government into taking pro-active measures at an early political solution are misplaced, at best.

Independent of the fate of the UNHRC vote this time, the recent referendum in distant Crimea should be a shocking eye-opener to Sri Lankan stake-holders of the 'ethnic issue', 'accountability calls' and all attendant concerns.

India's abstention from voting at the UNHRC session in Geneva means that India has now re-positioned itself to re-engage the Sri Lankan stake-holders in a constructive way, as articulated by Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid long before the vote.

With the international community refusing to take its focus off the human rights situation in Sri Lanka even in the midst of developments in West Asia and North Africa, there are now expectations that it could well be Colombo's turn to be called to account for, though to be at a lesser degree.

With the international community reacting on expected lines on the Report of the Lessons Learnt and Reconciliation Commission (LLRC), the matter could now be expected to be taken up by the West in forums where they have a say.

In April 2022, Sri Lanka’s sovereign debt default —with China being the largest bilateral creditor—trained the spotlight on the impact of Beijing’s lending on Sri Lanka’s economic crisis. Yet, Sri Lanka’s debacle is a result of far more complex, interrelated factors than indebtedness to China. At the same time, there has been a significant rise in servicing of loans from China over the years, and Beijing is indeed an important

This brief examines state responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, taking the cases of India, Israel, Brazil, Hungary and the United States. It studies the language utilised by the government leaders in these countries and finds extensive war-time semantics. The brief explores the interrelationship of such rhetoric with the legitimisation of extreme measures through the construction of an issue as an “existential threat”— a process analysts call

Delhi, India's national capital, has long been the subject of a quandary: Should it be granted full statehood, or maximum autonomy commensurate with its megalopolis status? is paper takes a tour of select national capitals to understand how other nations have arranged their governance and handled competing jurisdictions and functions. Lessons are drawn from this examination of other capitals, and recommendations are put forth towards a more sensi

Following the two national conventions held by the Republican Party and the Democratic Party, the race to the White House has gained more steam. It was an opportune time to take the debate on the US Presidential election

As a new phase begins in the tragic history of Afghanistan, sulking can't be Delhi's strategy. India must keep an open mind, engage all the major Afghan formations, intensify the dialogue with all the regional and international stakeholders, and find ways to influence the outcomes.

Two sets of people are upset with the way India is pursuing the peace process with Pakistan. In the first group are those in Kashmir who are, quite abruptly, faced with the reality of being irrelevant in the entire process. The second group is in Islamabad which is not quite sure about the direction the process is taking and is therefore discomfited.

The Indo-US bus, stalled since 2009, is moving again. It has new tyres, engine and a coat of paint, and its cocky new Indian driver is determined to take it in his chosen direction: not just towards a particular country but the world at large.

Given India's high stakes in the Indian Ocean, it is important for it to ponder the possibility of using both soft and hard power resources to create dependencies for the other countries, and the same time, seek possibilities to engage with China.

This paper examines India’s ‘two-front’ dilemma in view of its conflicts with China and Pakistan, and the possibility that these two adversaries could join forces. The author studies historical events that could help outline the strategies that have been undertaken by certain countries to combat the combined power of multiple adversaries, usually exceeding their own. These include the Napoleonic strategy and the Israeli experience. In analy

Taking care of the urgent requirements, the new Cabinet Committee on Security of the Modi government should insist on a radical overhaul of the national security system before funding new acquisitions.

India’s August 2021 presidency of the United Nations Security Council allowed New Delhi to exhibit clout, creativity, and diplomacy, as it pushed for its inclusion in the Council permanently. Such a push reignites the “responsible stakeholder” debate in Washington and other Western capitals, particularly to gauge India’s rise against the interests of the US and its allies. This brief argues that the West needs to reassess India in a renew

As Modi resets ties with the Maldives with Sushma Swaraj's visit, he also has an opportunity to rethink the current Nepal policy which has entered a turbulent phase in the last few weeks. Nepal's election of a new PM, K.P. Sharma Oli, is a good moment to take a fresh look at the differences between Delhi and Kathmandu.

The statistics in the socio economic caste census is a stark reminder that most rural poor in India do not belong to the 'middle class' at all. It is important to face up to the stark reality. Emphasis and implementation of Digital India, Make in India, Smart cities' programmes ought to take into account the problems faced by the poor.

The Observer Research Foundation and Saferworld, UK, with support from the UK Department of International Development, hosted a workshop in New Delhi in August 2014 with the objective of identifying priorities to help secure an inclusive agreement on the SDGs. This Policy Perspective presents a summary of key issues raised by participants from India, China, Brazil, Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan and the African Union.

Having the Union Cabinet now accepted a new globally identifiable symbol for the Indian Rupee, designed by Udayakumar, New Delhi may need to consider ways to take the horse to where it should belong, if it, together with the cart, has to be a driving force.

Though realism suggests India cannot directly influence the evolution of the Syrian situation, India must more actively partake in the international debate on Syria and step up its political engagement with all major states in the region, said experts at a brainstorming on Syria.

Taiwan is facing an existential identity crisis, one whose consequences can go well beyond the region. The island exists between two sovereignties: it has domestic sovereignty and is secure in its identity as a democracy and an economic powerhouse; at the same time, it has an uncertain international sovereignty and is insecure in a larger battle with China about that identity. From a traditional international-relations perspective, Taiwan meets e

Recent political developments suggest that the Taliban is taking measures to gain important political points while not committing to anything concrete. The US-Afghan rift has not only created confusion regarding the future of the country but also given the Taliban some breathing Space.

By all accounts, the new Taliban is more aggressive, well armed and trained, in collaboration with Al Qaeda and other terrorist elements, determined to take over, to begin with, southern Afghanistan, despite the presence of coalition forces.

The Centre cannot be seen as taking tentative steps if and when the talks commenced, and get enmeshed in complications from the Law and Order (a State subject) to issues of tribal welfare, industrial investments, development, etc.

The quad -- India, Australia, Japan, and the United States -- should take care to prevent the possible dangers in China's rise from becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. It should use the wide menu of options for quadrilateral cooperation to bargain for diplomatic resolution of China's disputes with its neighbours.

Innovative approaches will require regulatory processes to include all stakeholders.

October is a month of special concern and tension in both Indonesia and Thailand due to the third anniversary of the Bali explosions of October 12, 2002, and the first anniversary of the terrible tragedy on October 25 last year, in which 78 Muslim youth, taken into custody by the security forces for participating in a big protest demonstration (1,300 protesters) outside the Tak Bai police station in the Narathiwat province of southern Thailand, a

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe should take care when detailing the reasons why constitutional reforms are needed. While talking about the external threats, he should be very careful not to unnecessarily cause provocations to either China or North Korea.

There is hope among the politicians of various political groups in Kashmir as well as the people of Kashmir that Narendra Modi as Prime Minister would take some decisive action in keeping with their expectations. Modi himself has moderated his stand to that there should be a discussion on Article 370.

It would be a mistake to assume that the US has changed its policy towards the region. It may have changed its style or the way it wishes to handle India and Pakistan but not its overall interests. The US wants to have a stronger presence in India without losing the hold it has on the military rulers in Pakistan.

This weekend at Goa Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his foreign policy team will undertake a significant manoeuvre with SAARC grouping gasping for breath

Often referred to as among the most strategically located island chains in the world, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are critical for India’s strategic interests. The islands comprise the sole archipelago in the Bay and they straddle important sea channels. As the long-standing protectionist regime in the islands morphs into a more flexible form of governance that will balance development with conservation, the stage appears set for India to c

Major Leetul Gogoi was commended when he broke the law by taking a Kashmiri civilian hostage. Now, the army is holding a second court of inquiry for another alleged act of indiscipline or worse.

The West has finally woken up to something that strategic analysts in India have been saying for decades: Saudi Arabia funded the Pakistani nuclear programme. In this connection, we have three questions to analyse; First, how valid is this information? Second, how is it then that Saudi Arabia gets away with so much? Third, why is Nato and Israeli intelligence taken seriously but not the Indians?

Critical minerals have emerged as a vital resource for a state’s national security and strategic calculations. Consequently, like-minded states have attempted to establish alliances for mineral security to mitigate their vulnerability arising from overreliance on a single country, notably China. In the Indo-Pacific, the Quad has taken the initiative to work together on critical minerals. The Quad’s strategy aims to combine available resources

On June 22, 2004, over 200 well-armed persons simultaneously raided three towns in the Ingushetia Republic of Russia, adjoining Chechnya, and attacked police stations, government buildings and checkpoints with automatic weapons and rocket-propelled grenades. The Russian and the local security forces were totally taken by surprise. Ninety-five persons were killed, the majority of them members of the security forces and other Government officials,

India needs to take a broad approach to its foreign policy. One of the biggest mistakes Delhi could make would be to see the Indo-Vietnam relationship as simply a means for countering China.

Under the garb of a trade war, this is a high-stakes strategic conflict between a power which wants to preserve the status quo in its favour and one which wants to usurp that throne.

Eleven million people in Afghanistan are experiencing food insecurity, and 97 percent of the country’s population are on the brink of universal poverty by mid-2022. Every year, about 250,000 people suffer the devastating impacts of environmental disasters such as floods, droughts, avalanches, landslides, and earthquakes. The circumstances are climacteric, as agriculture is the biggest livelihood provider in the country and influential in its ec

The dark web and terrorism have become closely intertwined, presenting new challenges to existing security frameworks globally. This brief examines the role of the dark web in enabling terrorist activities, from communication and recruitment to radicalisation and propaganda dissemination. It reviews current literature to highlight the ecosystem of the dark web and its ramifications on national security. The analysis describes the strategies adopt

The recommendations are based on a stakeholder consultation organised by ORF on 1 December 2022. Although the authors have made the best efforts to give voice to the concerns of various stakeholder groups, this is not a consensus document and does not attribute comments to, or claim to represent, the positions of any individual or organisation. All statements, assertions or factual errors are attributable only to ORF.