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Military modernisation was the fourth and last of Deng Xiaoping’s ‘Four Modernisations’. Even before the third modernisation got underway—that of science and technology—China began using commercial technologies to advance its military capabilities. This strategy has gained salience since Xi Jinping came to power in 2012 and made it the state’s key goal to transform the PLA into a “world-class military”. Military-Civil Fusi
China’s nuclear weapons arsenal has grown and modernised over the recent years, and current estimates say the country has 350 operational warheads ready for delivery, over 248 land-based ballistic missiles, and 72 sea-based ballistic missiles. China also has 20 nuclear gravity bombs and additional warheads intended to be armed on land- and sea-based missiles. This brief outlines a history of China’s nuclear weapons programme, scrutini
Arguably the most significant global phenomenon of the past four decades has been the economic and strategic rise of China. Today analysts are confronting questions of whether China will replace the United States as the world’s biggest power, if it will do so peacefully or through confrontation and conflict, how it will subvert the existing system of global rules and institutions, and whether a new form of bipolarity would emerge to accommodate
Sharp power—a state's attempt to alter the behaviour of other countries through the manipulation of culture, education systems, and the media to further its interests—is a key tool of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Issues related to regime legitimacy and the CCP's development priorities have shaped China's sharp power approach. In the Xi Jinping era, there is some anxiety in the party ranks that external conditions are turning aga
This brief aims to examine one of China’s possible responses to the various extremist and terrorist activities that plague the internal security of Pakistan, given the necessity of securing its USD 62 billion investment in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Given that Pakistan is failing to control this problem, China will have to take measures of its own to secure CPEC. The response of China could possibly be inspired by its strateg
Over the past two decades, China, in the name of counterterrorism has been carrying out a repressive campaign against the minority Muslim Uyghur population in its northwest region of Xinjiang. Its policy has provoked widespread condemnation from Western democracies. However, Beijing appears unscathed by such criticisms, especially as the Muslim world has either remained silent, or else have approved China’s actions in the region. This pap
The United States and Luxembourg have adopted domestic space laws granting certain legal rights to space mining companies. These moves have initiated a debate on the future of this industry, as well as the passing of relevant laws governing outer space and its resources. This paper makes an assessment of commercial space mining activities in the broader context of the emerging space economy. It finds that entrepreneurs are increasingly looking at
The last few decades have witnessed a rise in the use and accumulation of data, often called ‘the oil of the 21st century’. Meanwhile, existing laws and regulations are inadequate in dealing with these changing data consumption patterns; this is true for India. Wrongdoings by tech companies can often go unpunished, including predatory pricing, abuse of dominance, and exclusionary conduct. This brief discusses India’s antitrust laws and regu
Confidence-building measures (CBMs) were first developed in the context of Western international relations as a means of ensuring norm diffusion between adversarial states. While South Asian states have also turned to CBMs to minimise hostilities, the literature on their impact has been limited. This brief fills the gap by examining the influence of CBMs between India and Pakistan, and India and China, on norm diffusion in the region. The brief c
In recent times, the centre of gravity for global trade and economic activities has shifted to the Indo-Pacific and, consequently, there is heightened competition between global powers that have stakes in the region. The importance of connectivity has therefore come to the forefront, covering domains like digitisation with interoperable regimes comprising data protection and cyber security, along with cross-border infrastructures that need attent
The extant scholarship on India’s nuclear doctrine, while problematising the credibility deficit in the strategy of massive retaliation, fails to provide a policy alternative. This study examines the alternative of flexible response available for India and makes an assessment of whether it provides a solution to this problem in India’s nuclear doctrine. Even when flexible response is often cited in India’s strategic circles as a likely alte
India's reliance on outer space has become critical in its social and economic growth stories in addition to its transformative impact in the national security context. With growing reliance comes vulnerability to adversarial attempts to harm India's capabilities, particularly from the new threat of cyber warfare. Even as countries including India have debated the need to develop certain counter-space capabilities, such as demonstration of an ASA
Recent grey-zone activity in maritime-Asia suggests an increase in hybrid warfare, even as the lines between military, economic, diplomatic, intelligence and criminal means of aggression become increasingly blurred. By replacing overt military aggression with soft provocations – kept well below the threshold of open warfare – aggressors attempt to leverage asymmetry, ambiguity and incrementalism for strategic effects. These tactics are highly
The disciplines of International Relations (IR) and History could be natural allies as both have much to gain from engaging with each other. A historically informed IR could provide a deeper understanding of the motivations of world politics, while ‘international history’ could offer a much needed comparative perspective to the manner in which history is approached. Focusing on what students of IR can learn about and from the study of history
As the world grapples with uncertainty in the post-COVID-19 era, China appears to be focusing on bolstering its rural economy. China claims to have brought nearly 100 million people out of poverty since 2012, but the regime feels that unbalanced development can jeopardise the gains of poverty alleviation. The widening economic gap could also foment unrest in the rural areas. Additionally, the government believes that the reliance on grain
The Ministry of Defence released the Defence Acquisition Procedure 2020 (DAP 2020) in September last year, in a move to further streamline the procurement process and provide a boost to indigenous arms manufacturing. This brief argues that measures articulated in the DAP—highly anticipated as it was—need to be complemented by additional reforms to create a robust procurement machinery that supports faster and cheaper acquisition as well as hi
Various Indian states have attempted to implement their respective deradicalisation programmes to counter radicalised thought amongst those identified as being at-risk, as well as those contemplating on joining, or are returning after having joined terror groups. Maharashtra and Kerala, for example, claim that their programmes are a success. Yet little is known regarding the structure of these deradicalisation programmes, their implementation, th
In the past decade, Japan made certain critical changes in its defence and security policy. These include enhancing the country’s defence capabilities, introducing the right to collective self-defence, abandoning the ban on arms exports, strengthening its alliance with the United States, and promoting its vision of a ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’. Japan has introduced these changes incrementally, as a response to changing strategic circumsta
In Devas Multimedia Pvt. Ltd v. Antrix Corporation Ltd, the Supreme Court of India has upheld the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT) order winding up Devas Multimedia Ltd on the grounds of fraud. Antrix is the commercial arm of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), and Devas is a multimedia services company. The decision comes at a crucial time, as foreign investors of Devas are endeavouring to attach Indian assets
India will assume the presidency of the G20 in 2023. One of the key policy challenges for India and other member states is how to regulate the global digital economy. Once a fringe policy issue, the global digital economy is now central to the G20 agenda, with significant implications for individuals, corporations, and governments. Bilateral cooperation within the G20 system can provide additional resources and capability to any presidency, which
The US-India strategic partnership is rooted in the Indo-Pacific region. Nonetheless, developments in Europe, such as the war in Ukraine, have implications for US-India cooperation. The Ukraine conflict could distract the US, diverting its attention to Europe, and impeding its efforts to build Indian strategic capacity. Differing responses to the war can also create tensions between the two countries, as the US seeks to punish Russia, and
The benefits of strengthening physical connectivity in a geographically contiguous region are increasingly being recognised. These links are expected to increase economic activity and people-to-people interaction, leading in turn to regional and sub-regional integration. In this backdrop, the Motor Vehicle Agreement (MVA) signed among Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal is expected to facilitate cross-border movement of vehicles, thereby reducing
In September 2002, the Bush administration officially introduced its national security strategy report. In response to the devastating attacks on the epicentre of America's financial and defence establishment, President Bush outlined the fundamental tenets of a strategy that was authored to contend with changes caused due to the "profound transformation" in the current security environment. President Bush proclaimed that, in order to protect Amer
This brief examines the historical dimension of the tensions between Japan and South Korea and its implications on the current breakdown in their bilateral relationship. It argues that the battle over historical memory has led to lasting animosity between the two countries, contributing to serious problems in their defence ties and creating space for China to expand its influence in the region. The brief explores why efforts to overcome the histo
While the idea that emotional appeal is central to political persuasion may serve common intuition, the dynamics underscoring how and why this is so, remain underexplored. This primer collates insights from neuroscience and political psychology to show why emotions are essential to vote choice. It explores the effects of emotional appeals on voter perceptions using examples from campaign advertisements in US elections. The analysis finds that pol
Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine follows its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its continued direct support for separatist activities in eastern Ukraine, marking a new chapter in Moscow's geopolitical approach. China's response and its overt diplomatic, financial, and economic support for Russia was also noteworthy. This brief assesses the contours of the new geopolitical formation (the ‘DragonBear’, a term coined by this author)
China has often showed a lack of willingness to abide by not only established international law but also certain norms that the global community has fostered over the years. It has flouted the decision issued by an arbitration court at The Hague regarding its claims in the South China Sea; it has also appropriated intellectual property. In the 1970s when the Western economies were taking the lead in setting global norms while balancing the thre
The current debate on Delhi’s approach towards the Rohingya crisis focuses principally on the implications. While this aspect, without doubt, deserves careful examination, there is a need for a more holistic understanding. This brief fills the gap by shifting the focus on the role that India is playing in finding a solution to the crisis. It looks beyond what the approach means for India and explores ways for Delhi to further deepen and expand
The 70th anniversary of Russia-India relations is an opportune time to make a comprehensive assessment of the current state of their cooperation, keeping in mind the long history of friendship between the two countries. In the last few years, India and Russia have been struggling to retain the legacy of their long-term relationship while moving beyond the traditional spheres of cooperation to reach new heights. To expand their bilateral agenda,
India is keen to leverage its nascent civilian drone (or unmanned aerial vehicle) industry to become a global hub. Since 2021, it has built a conducive policy ecosystem to support the domestic drone industry. In what this brief collectively calls the ‘Drone Regulations 3.0’, it includes the liberalised Drone Rules 2021, a production linked incentive scheme, the unmanned aerial vehicle traffic management policy, the certification scheme for un
A nation-state—with its numerous institutions, actors, and daily interactions—is a complex system and it is a tall task to predict the future trajectory of any of its sub-systems such as the armed forces. What is certain, though, is that every sovereign state aims to have a military that is of the highest possible calibre. One of two paths may be chosen to achieve this goal: tying-in the military’s capability development with the ec
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to a full-fledged international armed conflict, and the Ukrainian president has issued a call to people across the world to join the country’s battle through the International Legion of Territorial Defence (ILTD). At the time of writing, 500 Indians have submitted applications to join the ILTD, and one is already in the force. This brief contextualises the rise of Indians fighting ‘foreign’ war
China’s approach to trade has stood impervious to change. It is time for a new geoeconomic approach to counter China. Like-minded nations can fashion rapid arrangements to grow the supply chains that matter most, such as for electric vehicles (EV). The US and India, plus Australia, Canada, Japan, Britain, Taiwan, Korea, and Mexico can form an EV supply chain compact to create a level playing field within the group and incentivise their
This paper evaluates deficiencies in India’s naval shipbuilding programme, and identifies factors that adversely impact naval warship construction in the country. It argues that despite considerable effort, India’s shipbuilding endeavours continue to suffer from systemic deficits that cannot be addressed through ad hoc policy interventions and short-term solutions. Through an assessment of strengths and weaknesses of India’s defence shipyar
A year and a half since United States (US) President Joe Biden took the helm, both sides of the country’s political divide continue to debate whether the incumbent’s China policy is distinct from that of the Trump administration. The Republicans claim that Biden’s China policy has not veered away from Trump’s; the Democrats, meanwhile, argue that it is different. This brief weighs in on the debate, and finds that despite the Biden
After President Donald Trump’s 2017 visit to Asia, the Indo-Pacific region assumed greater significance in the United States’ foreign policy calculus, as articulated in the ‘Indo-Pacific Strategy Report’ released by the US Department of Defence. On 31 December 2018, Trump passed the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), which authorises US$1.5 billion in spending for a range of US programmes in East Asia and Southeast Asia to “develop
इस अंतरराष्ट्रीय मंच पर चीन के विदेश मंत्री एलएसी की समस्या को छोड़ भारत-चीन संबंधों पर ज्यादा बोले. चीनी विदेश मंत्री ने कहा कि चीन एवं भारत के संबंधों में सुधार की दिश�
With the stage set for the Geneva II conference on Syria, positions have been drawn, bargaining will be tough and the outcome could go either way.
China has enacted a National Security Law for the special administrative region of Hong Kong. The provisions of the law can be used to curb peaceful dissent and enhance Beijing’s control over the region. It has the potential to not only change Hong Kong’s legal and political autonomy, but also alter its status as a global financial centre. This paper offers an overview of the national security law and its implications for the ‘one country,
Human rights issues have been a cornerstone of US foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. This paper examines Washington’s human rights focus on India and China under former President Donald Trump, and identifies trends under the current Joe Biden administration. The paper notes an emergent US bipartisan approach to refocus on Beijing’s human rights record following a period of policy dissonance owing to concerns to protect its economic
The global order is fast-changing; the field of International Relations (IR), less so. Despite the rise of other countries in economic and geopolitical terms, the field of IR continues to be dominated by the West and its theories, methods and policy concerns. The idea of ‘Global IR’ proposed in this brief aims to make the field more inclusive and universal. After outlining the major elements of a Global IR paradigm, the brief suggests that In
After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, India established official ties with the five former Soviet Republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan; so did China. In recent years, both India and China have come up with different strategies to strengthen their respective ties with these resource-rich economies, collectively called the Central Asian Republics (CARs). China’s strategy is the ambitious Belt and Roa
The Doklam crisis of 2017 illustrates the increasing tension in India and China’s nuclear relationship. There are elements of stability and instability in such relationship, and this brief examines them. Stability, on one hand, is derived from a history of military and political restraint, ongoing institutionalised negotiations, and growing economic relations. However, the continuing border dispute and disagreement on a non-demarcated Line of A
