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Pessimism towards a foreseeable settlement of the India-China border dispute is not unfounded. At the political level, there is a "trust deficit" which impedes cooperation. Despite the existence of multi-tiered mechanisms to facilitate resolution, there has hardly been any progress on the issue in recent years. This paper identifies the obstacles and explores how a peaceful settlement of the India-China border dispute could be arrived at in the f

The Indo-Pacific region is experiencing profound geo-strategic re-alignments. Post-war norms are being challenged by a rising China that is unconstrained by the established legal, economic and diplomatic order. These changes come at a time of growing uncertainty over US commitments to both its regional allies and a liberal international trade regime. In the absence of American leadership, the only formidable and practical alternative is the emerg

An examination of the prospects for al-Qaeda following the US drawdown in Afghanistan and the likely threats which the region, and India in particular, might face in the future. A supplementary scrutiny of ISIS, and the group's possible expansion in the region, is also proffered.

To supplement the still lagging Afghan and ISAF security capabilities, alternative structures have been used or created, especially in rural or hard-to-reach areas. Two important groups among these are private security contractors (PSCs) and 'community defence' organisations or local militias. This paper assesses the impact of these entities on Afghan stability. Beginning March 19, 2003, the United States invaded Iraq, drawing both material an

With a new king in power, this paper looks at royal politics in Saudi Arabia and identifies topical domestic and regional challenges from the Saudi perspective.

Demographic trends in Russia since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 have largely been unfavourable. Deaths exceeded births for the first time in 1992, and a period of negative growth followed which continued unabated until 2012 when marginal growth was achieved for the first time in two decades. This paper studies the demographic patterns in Russia since 1991, which are unique for several reasons. While population decline is common amo

This paper outlines the development of Russia’s relations with the countries of Southeast Asia, focusing on the years after 2014. As relations with the West reached a new post-Cold War low, Moscow has intensified its efforts at building stronger ties with the East. The paper deals with the impact of these developments on the state of its political, economic and defense engagement in Southeast Asia, both bilaterally and multilaterally. It will s

Amb M Rasgotra, International Affairs Adviser, Observer Research Foundation, and former Foreign Secretary of India, was invited as Chief Guest at the Convocation of the University of Kelaniya, Sri Lnaka, held on June 23, 2005. The complete text of his Convocation Address is reproduced below:

This paper looks at debates from the days of the British Raj until now that have shaped India's strategic thought on Afghanistan. It highlights the impact of India's territorial construct on its strategic imagination and argues that India's Afghan policy is determined by its political geography. Afghanistan has proved to be a security lynchpin in South and A Central Asia over the last two decades. Home to a variety of militant networks with regi

Countries such as India and Australia are redefining their Indo-Pacific policies amidst the growing belligerence of China in the region. The two have a common interest in stability, while standing firmly against any militarisation. Their willingness to partner closely with like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific lays the foundation for stronger defence and security cooperation between the two middle-power democracies and Indian Ocean li

This paper looks at the recent Chinese infrastructural developments along the Sino-Indian border, including building of highways, road links and oil pipelines that have improved the country's force deployment and sustenance capabilities. The paper also assesses India?s infrastructure initiatives on the border front and argues that they are inadequate, especially in light of the Chinese developments.

The tendency of nation States to attempt solving the problem of modern piracy exclusively through the employment of their naval and military might is a flawed effort and has, more often than not, proved unsuccessful. At best, it has resulted in a temporary suppression of the problem that has inevitably re-manifested itself at a later stage.

This Paper analyses South Africa's position as a member of both BRICS and IBSA, especially the broader strategic implications arising out of its membership of the two organisations.

As a tool of diplomacy, forum summits have allowed countries to interact, exchange views, and work together to cooperate on issues of mutual interest. This is true for the African continent, where there is a recent surge in high-level summits involving heads of state, ministers, and civil society organisations. These ‘Africa+1’ summits have provided countries in the continent with an institutional platform to engage with both traditional and

Many countries imposed stringent lockdowns in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Sweden, however, adopted a ‘soft’ approach of self-imposed social precautions without state regulation. This evoked extensive criticism within and outside the country, especially in view of its high death rates in comparison to its Nordic neighbours. The Swedish government, however, has been steadfast with its strategy. As countries emerge from lockdowns and begi

Unlike in other regions of the world, the value of intra-Africa trade has remained low over the years. Moreover, Africa accounts for just 2 percent of global trade. In 2021, African countries launched the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which aims to create a single African market for the free movement of goods, services, labour, and capital, and increase intra-African trade. AfCFTA may be able to provide Indian firms and in

This paper analyses the domestic compulsions in Australia, India, Japan and the US that are influencing their positions on the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad). The paper notes that as the four countries are becoming increasingly aware of the risks posed by China’s rise over the last few years, they have sought to converge to the Quad. For Australia, the concerns are over trade dependency on China, and China’s sharp power projection and

Little is known and even less understood about the 2,00,000-strong Bangladesh Army's corporate interests. The importance of the subject owes itself to the fact that the army has been a veritable power of stability in a country that has been dogged by decades of unending political turmoil. The fact that the Army had to step in to keep the country from slipping into a political abyss in 2006 underlines the criticality of its role in providing stabi

The Seychelles’ geographical advantages have given it economic gains from its main Blue Economy (BE) sectors—fisheries and tourism. However, overexploitation and unsustainable management practices have placed undue pressure on these resources. In 2018, the country conceived a sustainable ocean-based development pathway—the Seychelles’ Blue Economy Strategic Framework and Roadmap. Various socio-economic and environmental challenges threate

Bhutan has historically maintained a neutral relationship with China, to its north, and a more special relationship with India, whose states border its west, east, and south. Over the past two decades, however, many factors are forcing Bhutan to settle its longstanding territorial disputes with China and diversify its relations. These factors include its own changing economy and transition from an absolute monarchy to a democracy, a gener

This study discusses three major mega free trade agreements (the TPP, TTIP and the RCEP) and attempts to develop a strategy for India to navigate the repercussions engendered by these groupings and thereby safeguard India?s trade and sustain its economic growth.

Libya, in the throes of a civil war, now represents the ugly facet of the much-hyped Arab Spring. 

Why is it that despite sharing significant commonalities, India and China remain trapped in a relationship that projects them as inevitable rivals? This paper examines the promise of these bilateral relations and attempts to sound the death knell to the old narrative.

This paper examines the maritime infrastructure of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)--tracing the history of the development of its maritime organisation, infrastructure and strategy. The paper focuses on the salience of sea power as perceived by a violent non-state actor and provides a perspective on how non-state actors employ sea power in asymmetric conflicts

Understanding the importance of peace has been accorded high priority in many religions, such as Hinduism, Jainism, Buddhism and Sikhism. In recent years, many economists have realized the monetary value of peace. Peace is a pre-requisite for the development of infrastructural facilities like education, health, roads, irrigation, power and communications.

The impact of Indo-Russian relations on the domestic and foreign policies of India from the 1960s is difficult to underestimate. The USSR was instrumental in helping independent India industrialise, develop its scientific potential, and defend its territorial integrity. The Indo-Russian relationship developed a level of trust between two independent countries that was unprecedented in international affairs. The collapse of the USSR negatively aff

What does it mean to speak of an ‘Indian’ approach to international affairs? Indian International Relations (IR) is commonly presented as merely a derivative of ‘western’ disciplinary traditions in Europe and North America. This obscures the vast body of work on political science and international thought that emerged from the beginning of the 20th century amongst South Asian intellectuals, scholars, and activists. This forgotten history

The India-Pakistan peace process, punctuated with -uctuating waves of optimism and anxiety, has completed three years, and it is appropriate, and timely, to review whether the primary On April 22, 2003 the Indian Prime Minister, Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, told the Indian Parliament that India was unilaterally opening “the doors for talks” with Pakistan. The offer was based on two simple premises: one, that Pakistan would stop cross-border in

By opposing 'unilateralism in international affairs' and evincing a 'common interest' in the evolution of a multipolar world based on 'cooperative security order' while in Moscow this week, Prime Minister Vajpayee has addressed issues going beyond bilateral ties and regional politics in South Asia. To the extent, Vajpayee and India have been consistently focussing on multipolarism, particularly after the US war in Afghanistan, and on Iraq.

Indo-US relations that have witnessed a remarkable transformation in recent years, both in tenor and substance, are under intense scrutiny on the eve of US President Barack Obama's forthcoming visit to India. While relations between the two democracies have moved from one of 'estrangement' to a relationship of 'engagement' at many levels, there are outstanding issues that need to be addressed. This Issue Brief explores the prospects for cooperati

Afghanistan fell to the Taliban in August last year and since then, serious security concerns have arisen for India. There is the spectre of terrorist groups in neighbouring countries gaining strength; there is also the threat of Indians travelling to Afghanistan to either live as civilians desiring a home under “Islamic rule”, or else fight alongside terrorist groups. Indeed, other South Asian countries such as Bangladesh are reporting that

India and Germany, on their own, are important countries in their respective regions. Together, they have developed and diversified their partnership since the end of the Cold War. Yet, popular perceptions have historically failed to match what the governments are doing. This paper argues for better perception-building between the two countries, given its proven role in nurturing international relations, especially for countries like Germany wher

Like in some other regions of the world, the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated external debt accumulation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This could have massive, adverse impacts on growth as governments prioritise debt servicing commitments over key development expenditures such as healthcare and education. For the countries in SSA with relatively lower GDP, this could mean getting caught in a vicious cycle of low output and mounting debt. A pa

The ‘crown jewel’ of the World Trade Organization (WTO) — the dispute resolution mechanism — is facing a crisis. The US obstruction to new appointments in the WTO’s Appellate Body (AB) has frozen the appeals process and brought the mechanism to a halt. Until such crisis is resolved, New Delhi will need to explore other means for resolving its current and future trade disputes. This paper outlines interim solutions that India can emplo

This paper bridges the gap in Indian public discourse on the aims of ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria or Islamic State) and where it stands today as the most formidable terrorist organisation of the 21st century. It explores ISIS from the perspective of the Middle East, rather than coming from an Indian foreign policy and security point of view, of which there is no dearth in literature. Such an approach is crucial in understanding the terr

Pakistan is often accused of being a state sponsor of terrorism. This article bases itself in the belief that though the problem of ?Jihadism? may well have originated from some of Pakistan?s security paranoias, it is now assuming proportions far larger than Pakistan itself. At this stage, Jihadism will be a problem for Pakistan itself as much as for the rest of the world. At the same time, the ability of the Pakistani state to counter this pheno

Sri Lanka, which in the 1970s was being hailed as a development success story for a low-income nation, is now mired in a financial and economic disaster, its worst yet since independence in 1948. Despite notable investments in infrastructure projects, and a largely stable growth rate from 2013 to 2019, the Sri Lankan story was marred by a series of untimely and mismanaged economic measures that led to the current meltdown. External factors have c

संयुक्‍त राष्‍ट्र महासभा में भारतीय विदेश मंत्री ने अपने भाषण में दुनिया के समक्ष भारत का समग्रता का दृष्टिकोण रखा. उन्‍होंने भारतीय विदेश नीति की बुनियादी सिंद्धांतों �

There is no dearth in analyses that sound the alarm on the current United States (US) administration’s policy in the Indo-Pacific. This paper conducts an evaluation of the US’ engagement in the region, and finds it to be contrary to alarmist predictions. President Donald Trump’s administration has reaffirmed commitments towards traditional allies, built on the predecessor president’s courtship of nascent partners, and encouraged partners

The benefits that India enjoyed for many years under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) programme of the United States was withdrawn, effective 5 June 2018. India was the largest beneficiary of the programme, of which it has been part since its inception in 1974. This paper evaluates the impact of the withdrawal on specific sectors of Indian exports. For comparison, the paper uses the Harmonized System Code (HS Code) Commodity Classifica

The recent protests in West Asia that started in Tunisia and now encompass the entire Arab world will have an impact on the regional balance of power equations. West Asia’s geographic location and its weight in the world energy market bestow on it an undeniable centrality that has also resulted in intensive interaction with external powers. Since it is at the heart of global energy security resources, West Asia has witnessed intense great powe