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The dark web and terrorism have become closely intertwined, presenting new challenges to existing security frameworks globally. This brief examines the role of the dark web in enabling terrorist activities, from communication and recruitment to radicalisation and propaganda dissemination. It reviews current literature to highlight the ecosystem of the dark web and its ramifications on national security. The analysis describes the strategies adopt

China’s external economic engagement in smart city development under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its digital sub-initiative, Digital Silk Road (DSR), is reshaping the geo-economic and geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific. Between 2017 and 2023, Chinese state and private companies invested, loaned, or contracted over US$22 billion in digital infrastructure under the DSR framework, spanning telecommunications, artificial intellig

The Digital Silk Road (DSR), part of the Belt and Road Initiative, symbolises China’s approach to expanding information exchanges and digital cooperation with emerging markets and developing economies. Under the DSR, several private corporations and state-owned enterprises supported by Chinese state banks are offering inexpensive technological contracts and rapidly building digital infrastructure projects. This brief examines the operationalisa

In a perceptive essay written some years ago, Joseph Nye had observed that "national interest is a slippery concept used to describe as well as prescribe policy." Decades earlier, the philosopher Gilbert Ryle had cautioned against "systematically misleading expressions" couched in a syntactical form improper to the facts recorded.

The Maghreb, often considered part of the Arab world, straddles the Euro-Mediterranean region, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Arabian Peninsula—a location that has given it a distinct history, political landscape, economy, and development trajectory. It is also emerging as an arena for great-power contestations, and is rich in natural resources critical for green transition. Historically dominated by former colonial powers, the countries in the re

Global models of Generative AI’s impact are insufficient for the United Arab Emirates, where national strategies collide with unique demographic pressures. This study addresses this gap through a novel, task-level analysis of 23,739 job postings, constructing a “Job Automatability Index” for the UAE. We find that AI exposure is invariant to geography, confirming its nature as a structural force. The results reveal sharp occupational polaris

The inner circle ensconced inside Trump Tower is either in chaos, or making good on its promise to smash the entrenched system to pieces.

The economic consequences of the ongoing pandemic have pushed millions of people into hunger and poverty. Yet, in some parts of the world, critical levels of widespread hunger, or famine, had already made a resurgence long before the outbreak of COVID-19. This brief studies the famine-like situation in four countries in two continents—Yemen, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and North Korea—to demonstrate the direct link between conflicts and modern fam

The impact of Indo-Russian relations on the domestic and foreign policies of India from the 1960s is difficult to underestimate. The USSR was instrumental in helping independent India industrialise, develop its scientific potential, and defend its territorial integrity. The Indo-Russian relationship developed a level of trust between two independent countries that was unprecedented in international affairs. The collapse of the USSR negatively aff

After a brief discussion on the uneasy relationship between Regional Trade Agreements and the WTO, the implications of the “deep” integration that the EU is seeking with India are discussed, and the respective positions, interests and concerns of the partners in the long drawn out negotiations are examined. The challenges for India in plunging into such “deep” territory, unprecedented in its history of bilateral or multilateral negotiatio

Like about the Loch Ness Monster, we have only heard that the West has proof of the Assad regime using chemical weapons. But we've seen no credible testimony. For all one knows, it may have been the rebels' doing to instigate a US military response.

An imprisoned Imran Khan directing street protests is a thorn in Pakistan army’s side. The political instability deepens Islamabad’s ‘polycrisis’

Kabul fiasco will affect US’ ability to mobilise coalitions against a common cause

Economic Dependence Will Make New Delhi Forever Vulnerable to Beijing

The return of a Socialist in France since Mitterand's victory in 1981 confirms a trend in Europe which, instead of lifting the mist, is adding to the fog. The other day in the UK, Labour had trounced the Conservatives in local bodies election across the country.

What does it mean to speak of an ‘Indian’ approach to international affairs? Indian International Relations (IR) is commonly presented as merely a derivative of ‘western’ disciplinary traditions in Europe and North America. This obscures the vast body of work on political science and international thought that emerged from the beginning of the 20th century amongst South Asian intellectuals, scholars, and activists. This forgotten history

What are the gains that diplomacy on counter-terrorism, resolutions of the UN Security Council and other such multilateral instruments bring to the table?

The success of the Indian covert actions in 1971 that led to the liberation of Bangladesh has a legendary place in India’s security consciousness. This paper retells the story of India’s covert actions in East Pakistan between January and December 1971. It lays down some essential rules and principles for successful covert actions that remain applicable even today. These include the need for a culture of covert action that guides the developm

A New Silk Road is magical thinking, given that Afghanistan remains a hotbed of instability plagued by daunting challenges. Lack of security has already delayed Tapi, the natural gas pipeline linking Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.

India is witnessing a phenomenal increase in urbanisation and it is essential that this process is studied and analysed thoroughly to provide for a better quality of life, said Mr. Strobe Talbott, President of the Brookings Institution, while formally releasing ORF Mumbai Vision 2015: Agenda for Urban Renewal, published by Observer Research Foundation in ORF Mumbai on September 20.

Care work, both paid and unpaid, is at the heart of most economies. The care sector comprises formal healthcare, childcare services, early childhood education, disability and long-term care, and eldercare. Two-thirds of care workers globally are women, and women and girls perform more than three-quarters of all unpaid care work. The COVID-19 pandemic has amplified the vulnerability of care workers and deepened the gender gap. This paper a

In August 2021, Kabul fell to the Taliban, marking their return nearly 20 years since they first ruled Afghanistan in the mid-1990s. This report examines the prospects of restarting India’s engagements in Afghanistan under the current Taliban regime. It builds on the insights shared during an exclusive, virtual roundtable organised by ORF’s Centre for New Economic Diplomacy (CNED) in September 2021, and makes a case for India to consider the

The COVID-19 pandemic is transforming the world of work. As new occupations are emerging in this digitised landscape, the skills and competencies required for jobs are evolving as well. This brief examines the skills gaps that persist across the G20 countries, and argues that they will need to adapt their education and training mechanisms to the changing skills requirements. Although nearly all presidencies of the G20 forum have prioritised youth

At a time when the world order is intensely polarised, India remains one of the few nations which can engage with both the G-7 and BRICS in a matter of days with élan.

Nuclear weapons, the ultimate symbol of power, are no assurance or guarantees against blowback from religious radicalism. Only when the State decides to put a stop to this and takes a lead against the beliefs and practices of radicalism, will society learn to follow and resist.

Two immediate observations can be made from Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's address to the nation on July 22, 2005. One, he is not willing to take strong and decisive action against extremist and terrorist groups in Pakistan. Two, he cannot take such an action.

The global climate finance architecture tends to restrain emerging economies from mobilising and accessing global private commercial capital for energy transition. This brief explores the different global financial regulations that influence climate capital flows between countries, and argues that institutions must enhance their role in facilitating the optimal allocation of capital. It evaluates the role of Multilateral Development Banks from a

China's new gas pipelines from Myanmar will provide an alternative route for Beijing to import energy supplies. This is important for China given US maritime supremacy in the region. But the strategic advantage that Beijing gains out of the pipelines in the long-term depends on developments inside Myanmar and China's relations with it.

The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, often hailed as a diplomatic triumph, aims to limit temperature increases to below 2 degrees Celsius (C), preferably to 1.5 degrees C, compared to pre-industrial levels. However, with the United Nations (UN) having failed to establish a method for putting a price on carbon, greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise, and global temperatures increased by more than 1.2 degrees C in 2020. Already, experts warn

The International Financial Architecture has come under much scrutiny following the 2008 global financial crisis. There have been demands for major reforms to the IFA; but despite the steps taken so far, much more needs to be done to ensure global financial stability.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has historically been a key instrument of state power in modern China, from the time founder Mao Zedong famously said that power flows “from the barrel of a gun.” Today, in the era of Xi Jinping, China is strengthening its defence diplomacy through Xi’s so-called Global Security Initiative (GSI) that envisions a growing role for the Party-state’s arms like the PLA and the Ministry of Public Security. T

The forthcoming general election is being watched with bated breath and ever increasing curiosity by different observers. Although the election arithmetic remains more or less the same as it was in 1999, the sheer intensity in which the election is being fought and the issues that are being contested in the public debate may have some implications on the future of Indian politics.

This commentary provides deep insights into the rapid collaboration that is taking place between India and Australia. It also delves into its implications for the future.

The United States (US) and the European Union (EU) have shifted beyond market-led climate action toward state-backed green industrial policy, driven by competitiveness, economic security, and technological leadership concerns. Despite differences in approach, Atlantic strategies share an inward focus that positions the Global South primarily as a consumer market or supplier of intermediate inputs. Such models are politically unsustainable for dev

Observer Research Foundation (ORF) and the Hague Institute for Global Justice (THIGJ) recently hosted the second workshop of 'The Hague Initiative on Global Governance' in New Delhi between 21st and 23rd November, 2013.

Air quality in India’s capital city of Delhi and its surrounding region (or the National Capital Region, NCR) is poor during most months of the year. Various factors contribute to the worsening pollution, including human activities and a deficit in planning and governance. This brief examines the causes for declining air quality in the NCR as well as the mitigation measures that have been put in place by the government at different periods of t

The Ministry of Human Resource Development in late June floated the Higher Education Commission of India (HECI) Bill, 2018, to repeal the seven-decade-old University Grants Commission (UGC) Act, 1956. The HECI, when established, will replace the UGC that has been the bedrock of India’s higher education system. This brief analyses the draft bill and examines its deficiencies. It suggests that the present bill fails to address the shortcomings of

The fallout of this election forefronts the fault lines in the Bengali identity whose syncretic political and cultural climate has now been marred by religious insecurities.

Cyber war is a subject that is highly contested among strategists and experts. This brief assesses the impact of cyber operations against strategic targets and demonstrates that while cyber war is a real phenomenon, it is far from producing decisive outcomes. The cyberspace is a medium to conduct military operations and several countries have made investments in capabilities to both attack and defend against cyber-attacks. The brief evaluates the

Over the years, India has attempted to find political as well as legal solutions to its border dispute with China; these efforts have met with little success. This paper argues that the reason a resolution to the India–China border issue remains elusive is the inadequate understanding—and enforcement—of International Law. It examines the sustainability of China’s position, as well as its general approach to International Law, its interpre

India and China have quickened their rapprochement, driven less by trust, which remains scarce, than by necessity. In a multipolar world, permanent allies and lasting rivals are illusions.

In the 1971 war against Pakistan, had Indian forces managed to push beyond Turtok and capture Thang, the subsequent Pakistani adventure in Kargil in 1999 or the threat to Siachen would have been infructuous.

As United States (US) President Donald Trump took office for a second term in January, a critical assessment of the legacy of the Joe Biden administration may help inform the India-US bilateral relationship. Under President Biden, the bilateral ties between India and the US progressed steadily, gaining momentum through big-ticket sales and reinforced by structural continuities. Bilateral defence relationships were strengthened, and a technology-l

India’s employment of offensive air power in sub-conventional operations has evolved rather slowly for several reasons, primary of which is the quest for restraint in the application of force against internal fissures. There is also a popular reluctance to recognise the capabilities of air power in pursuing counter-insurgency, counter-terrorism and counter-infiltration operations. This brief explores the evolution of a doctrinal clarity for the

The Observer Research Foundation (ORF), in partnership with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office of the United Kingdom, organised a multi-stakeholder workshop on the 'International Rules-Based Governance' on March 15, 2013. The objective of the workshop was to arrive at a better understanding of the order of priorities for India within the international rules-based architecture.Three areas of focus were identified, namely: Corporate governance ben

The excitement of the Board of Governor's meeting is over and the participants have not been slow to express their views at the outcome. The Iranians are defiant, the Americans triumphant, the Russians cautious, the Europeans smug, the Chinese inscrutable, the Arabs joyous at directing a new argument at Israel, the latter pleased over Iran's predicament yet angry over a dent in their nuclear ambiguity, and the Indians self-righteous.

Iraq's Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki faces challenges to his power not only from receding American support but also from political rivals like the Sadrists and the al-Iraqiyya bloc, and the rise of Sunni insurgent groups like the Islamic State.