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India has signalled that it will embed its regional policy within the framework of SAARC. This should reduce the disquiet among our neighbours arising from the sheer size of India and its economy. This has a history since India's Pakistan policy of today is rooted in Vajpayee's visit to Islamabad to attend the 12th SAARC summit.
For the next government, tough rhetoric on the boundary question is no substitute for coping with the multiple challenges arising from China's new status as a first-rate power. With China emerging as the second-largest economy in the world, comprehensive commercial cooperation with Beijing is an imperative that no Indian government can ignore.
The opening up of Myanmar has added a new strategic value to the Bay of Bengal. Isolated for decades, Myanmar is actively engaging the world's major players in redefining its geopolitical identity today. This has further encouraged naval exchanges, exploration of energy resources and development of connectivity infrastructure in a vital littoral of the Bay. Within this evolving context, this paper attempts to examine the implications of these cha
This Special Report is based on some of the most important ideas shared amongst participants in ORF's roundtable on Changing Geoeconomic Landscapes, held on 21 December 2015 in New Delhi. The discussion examined current patterns in world economy, initiatives being taken by the Indian leadership to steer domestic economy, and the need for the country to carefully integrate its domestic economic priorities, including those of reforms, with its fore
There is a lot of disturbing news regarding the Indian economy today which is likely to spoil the outlook for 2012. One of them is regarding the rise in inequality.
The Finance Minister, P Chidambaram, managed to present a fairly balanced Union Budget. There were no big unforeseen surprises and it was relatively measured given that we are in a pre-election year. It is hard to ignore that the global economy continues to be in turmoil.
Regular communication with India and other host countries should be re-evaluated by Nepal, which is economically viable for the country in the long run, as it has to survive a major chunk of its economy on remittances.
Nepal is no stranger to Constitution drafting, having gone through six such rounds since 1948, with the seventh culminating in September 2015. is recent exercise, however, was unique as it was conducted, for the rst time, without the oversight of the monarchy. Certain populations of Nepali society had specic stakes in a new Constitution. For many of Nepal's marginalised communities such as the Madhes is, for example, the new Constitution oe
By most indications, India has arrived at a principled affirmation of net neutrality; the country must now turn its attention to its regulatory aspects. This essay examines whether the Competition Commission of India (CCI) can assume the primary role in enforcing net neutrality. It will trace the Commission?s short history to determine whether it has adequate jurisdiction and the strength of precedent to regulate the internet.
The nature of work is changing, leading to the loss of some jobs and the creation of others that require radically changed skills. In India, as the requirements of this evolving labour market change, co-working spaces fulfil many of the new needs. The aim of this paper is twofold: to describe the development of the co-working industry in India, its driving factors, as well as the architecture, design and social aspects of the work environment; a
Can India, in its present state of economy, afford the colossal amount of expenditure and administrative confusion in creating new States? The answer is firmly in the negative. Therefore, it is advisable for the UPA Government to remain firm and refuse to accede to the demand for a new commission for the reorganisation of States.
With the South Korea-Japan spat escalating, it is unlikely that the US can play a mediatory role. The fallout of such dispute will affect the world economy
Donald Trump’s idea of machine politics has not just conditioned his view of domestic politics, but also of international relations and US foreign policy
While the regulatory and safety structures of India's civilian nuclear programme have served the country well, they are in need of an upgrade. This paper examines the paths that lie ahead.
This Paper examines the existing critiques of China's oil supply diversification strategies in the Asia Pacific. It deconstructs the growing energy relationship between China and the Middle East that has made the security of the Hormuz Strait and the Malacca Strait vital to China's energy security. It also analyses specific geographic and strategic chokepoints in China's oil supply route and concludes that supply diversification motivations are d
Nepal is in deep turmoil. At the centre is the 8-year-old Maoist insurgency, the cost of which has been enormous ¿ 10,000 lives, a disrupted economy and a sharply fragmented society along ethnic, caste, regional and religious lines. The worst chaos is in the political arena where the government stands discredited and paralysed and the State is gradually sliding towards total collapse.
This could trigger a dramatic shift in the Chinese economy
Can Pakistan help the US tame the Taliban so that Trump can withdraw US forces from Afghanistan? That’s the price the US demands in exchange for aid for Pakistan’s floundering economy, but success is far from assured
Although China is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, the second largest economy in the world and a rising power on the global stage, its approach to the current Syrian crisis has been nearly as passive as India's policy.
For the economy to revive, private demand has to bounce back.
This report collates insights from unstructured interviews with people in South Kashmir about their lives following the Constitutional amendments of August 2019 that revoked the special status of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir under Article 370, and repealed Article 35A. The conversations with the respondents covered issues such as their livelihoods and the economy, the bureaucracy, and militancy in the region. The report is an attempt
Modi and Obama need to focus less on India's near-term carbon emissions and find ways to boost its use of renewable energy like solar and wind. Such an approach will address Delhi's need to grow its economy and Washington's desire to lessen the weight of coal in India?s energy mix.
Recent years have highlighted the global headwinds against China's increasingly aggressive moves in the Indo-Pacific region. Vulnerabilities associated with an overdependence on the country for several critical goods, including electronics, have exacerbated prevailing anti-China sentiments. This has provided the impetus for diversifying electronics supply chains, an opportunity India is well positioned to leverage. This brief assesses Ind
This paper examines the pre-pandemic slowdown, and subsequent contraction, in Indian economy. Utilising an analysis of broad macroeconomic and sectoral fundamentals, the paper argues that a notable lack of consumption and investment demand had already persisted before the pandemic; COVID-19 heightened those trends. Henceforth, India’s economic revival will be crucially dependent on demand generation by direct government fiscal intervention. The
The historic election verdict offers Narendra Modi an unprecedented opportunity. A truly transformative election that was fought on the issues of leadership, economy and governance has raised unprecedented hope and expectations among ordinary Indians. This is a verdict for change and Modi represents the face of that change.
Maldives, or the Maldive islands in the north-central Indian Ocean, is widely regarded as a paradise by holiday-seekers from across the world. Yet, its own people are beset by severe issues of insecurity. This brief investigates the various threats to security in the island nation, primary of which is the massive income inequality. It outlines a political and religious history of the nation, and explores their influence in the current sta
Agriculture remains the primary sector of the Indian economy. While it accounts for merely 16 percent of the country’s GDP, approximately 43.9 percent of the population depends on it for their livelihood. In recent years, indebtedness, crop failures, non-remunerative prices and poor returns have led to agrarian distress in many parts of the country. The government has come up with various mechanisms to address these issues: insurance, direct tr
The G20 meeting in Seoul next month ( November 11 and 12th) for the Finance Ministers of the twenty member countries that include India, China and the US, is likely to be a stormy one judging from the controversies surrounding the state of the world economy.
This paper evaluates the impact of various policy reforms, including the economic reforms of the 1990s, on India’s manufacturing sector. Covering the priority sectors relevant to the government’s ‘Make in India’ initiative, the paper analyses the productivity of registered manufacturing units from 1974-75 to 2012-13. It offers empirical evidence on the growth of productivity in the organised manufacturing sector through an inter-tem
This paper argues in favour of integrating valuation of ecosystem services in development policy planning in India. The paper presents three cases where monetary values of ecosystem services have been estimated to illustrate the significance of the exercise: the Terai Arc Landscape (TAL) in Uttarakhand, the Kunigal Wetlands in Karnataka, and the Indian Sundarbans Delta (ISD) in West Bengal. The first two cases highlight the ecosystem-livelihoods
India is experiencing a surge in power demand owing to an expanding economy. Even as the country has embraced the idea of transitioning to clean renewable energy, its current demand for electricity can only be met by addressing the concerns surrounding coal-fired power plants. The goal of going green might be a medium- to long-term strategy that should be diligently pursued to avoid future crises. In the short term, however, focus should
In many parts of the world, including India, Public Credit Guarantee Programmes (PCGP) improve access to credit for small enterprises that are unable to obtain assistance from mainstream financers. This brief discusses the relevance of PCGPs in India, their mechanisms, features, and efficiency. Although these programmes have improved access to credit for MSMEs (micro, small and medium enterprises), there are concerns regarding their efficiency an
Over the last thirty years, Kashmir has become a conflict economy, in which conflict entrepreneurs thrive. An entire ecosystem has developed that feeds into and upon this conflict economy. And the Jamaat has been one of the primary drivers and beneficiaries of this ecosystem.
As India assumes the G20 presidency, it has the opportunity to further the cause of mutually beneficial, rules-based international trade at a time when the world is facing a series of multiple and overlapping political and economic crises. This paper opens by describing a confluence of factors that together open a window of opportunity for India’s presidency to advance pragmatic engagement on trade, specifically in shoring up the multilateral t
India's small-scale industries contribute 15 percent to GDP yet they have been long ignored, receiving little policy support and inadequate infrastructure. As they have the potential to transform the socioeconomic architecture of the country, policy interventions are necessary to make small enterprises more efficient and achieve higher growth rates. This paper describes initiatives to propel India's small-scale industries.
India’s competitiveness in manufacturing and the success of ‘Make in India’ depend on its ability to produce high-quality products and services. Product quality is important for human health and consumer safety, as well as for protecting the climate and the environment. One way of ensuring that products and services meet certain standards is through technical regulations with mandatory compliance. However, technical regulations also have th
The financial condition of the Indian Railways (IR) is weakening by the day because of mounting losses in the passenger business. This, at a time when it is making efforts to improve its services through new capital intensive initiatives. IR’s freight revenue has traditionally subsidised its passenger revenue, resulting in one of the lowest passenger fares but one of the highest freight rates in the world. Since freight trains and passenger tra
Conflicts between central banks and governments are embedded in the evolving discourse of every democracy. The recent discord between the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Ministry of Finance (MoF) is neither the first nor likely to be the last. Institutionally, once a disagreement between the RBI and the MoF crosses the Rubicon, the government has the power to overrule the central bank’s decisions. Moreover, such a structure is not restricte
New Delhi must now accelerate the transformative governance changes it has initiated in the North East
The paradox of the African continent is that it is resource-rich but remains poor in many parts. Has regional integration improved economic performance and does it pave the way to a better future? This paper examines West African integration--its evolution, the successes it has scored and the challenges that remain.