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New Delhi’s Indian Ocean woes aren’t confined to Sri Lanka. Across the Indian Ocean’s littorals, the Chinese navy has been preparing to establish a stronger security presence. On Pakistan’s Makran coast, the PLAN has deployed regularly, including at Gwadar, also constructed by CMPorts. Earlier this year, the PLA is said to have initiated talks with the Pakistan military for another outpost at Jiwani.

This brief aims to examine one of China’s possible responses to the various extremist and terrorist activities that plague the internal security of Pakistan, given the necessity of securing its USD 62 billion investment in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Given that Pakistan is failing to control this problem, China will have to take measures of its own to secure CPEC. The response of China could possibly be inspired by its strateg

China’s ‘three warfares’ strategy (TWS)—understood as public opinion, psychological, and legal warfare—has received considerable attention, but most analyses focus on Beijing’s sovereign claim to Taiwan and its maritime claims in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. This occasional paper evaluates the manifestation of the TWS against India in Ladakh and China’s motivation for adopting the same approach in the Arctic and Antar

Tensions in Taiwan Strait are an allegory for the Sino-American joust to dominate tomorrow's tech world

An Indian maritime expert feels China, which had increased its defence budget several-fold in order to retain or recover its territories in the disputed area, is also cleverly diffusing the situation by having joint military exercises with countries around the area to prevent them from banding together against its claims.

Despite advanced outward appearances, China’s weapons have performed poorly in battle.

Disruptive communication technologies are helping reshape global dynamics by empowering marginalised populations and prioritising public opinion over traditional military hard power. At the same time, however, these technologies are also creating opportunities for groups to clandestinely and remotely influence public sentiment and monitor, control, and assert their preferred narratives. This brief discusses the case of China, which has been worki

Civil wars are drawn-out conflicts, often lasting up to a decade or even longer before a political settlement is reached. Pakistan's military campaign against Pashtun militants, variously allied to the Afghan Taliban, the al-Qaeda, and often fighting for localised interests has stretched into its 12th year.

Technological advancement in artificial intelligence has created a situation where the deployment of Lethal Autonomous Weapons has become practically, if not legally, possible within a few years. As the international community struggles to arrive at a definition of ‘autonomous weapons’, the need to regulate their use has become paramount. Apart from the legal and ethical considerations in the use of autonomous weapons, there are also con

India needs a strategic effort to understand that it is no longer competing with China, but seeking to cope with an increasing asymmetry of power

Sudan has remained embroiled in a devastating civil war for more than two years, causing an estimated 62,000 deaths and the displacement of approximately 14 million people. But what are the root causes of the war and why has a political resolution remained elusive?

Russia’s growing footprints in Africa provide West African junta-led countries with an opportunity to recalibrate their foreign policy away from traditional western alliances as well as China. But in what ways does Moscow’s re-emergence in the region offer strategic options to these countries?

Illusion of strength partly explains Xi Jinping's cautious approach to regional disputes.

Drone or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) technology has become more accessible and affordable in recent years, and their increasing long-range capability, endurance, and applications, have made them integral for both civilian and military uses. At the same time, malicious elements such as criminal networks, drug smuggling syndicates and terrorist organisations, have exploited the technology to aid their activities. For India, the increase

Prolonged periods of military rule in Pakistan have enabled the military to penetrate all structures of the Pakistani state. Political parties, the judiciary, bureaucracy, and the media — today all have their share of pro-khaki elements. Therefore, a military coup d’etat is no longer the only way to unseat a democratically elected political leader who may have differences with the Army. Indeed, if former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had compl

Pakistan has been one of the countries worst affected by COVID-19, with the economic disruption caused by the pandemic exacerbating an already existing crisis. This paper discusses how the public health crisis has affected some of the most critical sectors of the Pakistani economy. While the government has implemented some mitigation measures, they are inadequate to counter the impact of the pandemic. The paper analyses the likely fallout of a ne

If one looks at China's actions in the South China Sea over the past five years, the picture that emerges is of a rising China attempting to change the ground realities and destabilise the status quo. If the international community wait to see the end game of the Chinese strategy, it may be too late to de-escalate a military confrontation.

The Observer Research Foundation, in partnership with the Center for Contemporary Conflict (CCC), Naval Post-graduate School, California, USA, and the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI), Pakistan undertook a project, Crisis and Escalation in South Asia: The 2002 India-Pakistan Military Standoff....

One of the questions that neither the Bush administration nor the Musharraf government has so far investigated is the involvement of Pakistan's military in the proliferation activities of nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan.

If the Pakistan-TTP talks succeed Pakistan may actually metamorphose from a hybrid theocracy to a complete theocracy, as Ayesha Siddiqa argues, because the Taliban, good or bad, want implementation of the Sharia. Thus all would depend on how far Pakistan's military and civilian leadership want to go to accommodate Taliban demands or prefer to wage war against TTP.

To arrest the spread of brutal Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, the US must go in with a limited military mission, thus aiding the process of bringing stability in Iraq and the region at large. However, it should not look at staying in Iraq for a long haul.

The recent attack on the British Council in Kabul by the Taliban shows that, apart from military tactics, there is an urgent requirement in the West to reconsider the political objectives in Afghanistan.

Despite the positive connotations of a de-radicalisation initiative in Pakistan's Swat, lead by Pakistan's army, the relationship between the military and terrorist groups still remains unclear.

This paper dissects the causes behind Pakistan’s ongoing economic crisis. The causes include dwindling forex reserves, the phenomenon of ‘galloping inflation’, a falling Pakistani Rupee, uncompetitive and undiversified export basket, burgeoning external debt, lack of fiscal prudence, debt distress, and a worsening business environment—all cascading to a balance of payment crisis. While austerity measures, appeals for loan rollover to debt

Recent grey-zone activity in maritime-Asia suggests an increase in hybrid warfare, even as the lines between military, economic, diplomatic, intelligence and criminal means of aggression become increasingly blurred. By replacing overt military aggression with soft provocations – kept well below the threshold of open warfare – aggressors attempt to leverage asymmetry, ambiguity and incrementalism for strategic effects. These tactics are highly

We need to look beyond the Presidential vote in Afghanistan, scheduled for next April. These elections would not only test equations of military and political power as the NATO forces pull out but also the strength and possibility of deeper enduring facts of the Afghan reality.

The political health of the US is important not just for the country itself, but the world, given its outsize influence as the foremost economic and military power.

Market disruptions and strategic concerns, followed by rapid diffusion, marked the sensational launch of China’s DeepSeek in January this year. This brief highlights how China’s ‘DeepSeek moment’ has unfolded within the wider context of its military might, manufacturing prowess, and robust network of regional and international institutions. It argues that the event introduced dimensions of national and economic security into the cascading

Allocations made for capital expenditure must increase if India is to keep pace with China's rising military might

China has discarded the traditional emphasis on criticising the arms control agreements promoted by the Western powers and focuses instead on securing Beijing's national interests by actively participating in international and regional military negotiations and shaping the international military norms.

New Delhi realises it must be self-reliant in all significant areas relating to the military. Accordingly, it is working overtime to build its defence-industrial capacity, but it will not yield significant results for another two decades.

The long-term challenge for India is in ensuring deep and sustained investments in defence R&D and a defence industrial ecosystem that can, if not comprehensively, but for the most part, service the requirements of the Indian military.

Resources are constraining the modernisation drives of India's three services. The government has not been able to check the growth of manpower in the Army and paramilitary forces. This has a direct repercussion on the modernisation plans of the military.

Modi Govt's defence budget will only sharpen the divide between an increasingly assertive China and the Indian security establishment trying hard to cope up with the Chinese military modernisation programme. China's 2014 military budget is of $132 billion while Indian budget is of approximately US $ 37 bn only.

Some voices in India had advocated a tough response to the Chinese. This would be untimely and irresponsible. In retrospect, the handling of the situation which involved a symmetrical non-threatening military response by Indian forces, along with patient diplomacy has paid off.

The use of drones or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), both for military and civilian purposes, has increased in India in the past decade. At the same time, counter-drone systems are also being developed to address the threats posed by UAVs. How effective are these counter-drone mechanisms? This brief explores this question, and offers suggestions for India to reduce the growing threat from drones. Any evaluation of the efficacy of anti-drone syst

Asim Munir’s power grab in Pakistan makes South Asia a more dangerous neighbourhood. The Pak military is no longer a state within a state. It is the state

Sometime in 2020, China began building a village in territory disputed with India.

The relatively small tactical operation did not meet its military objective but generated spectacular political theatre. The release of the videos in the run up to the elections is further evidence of the true nature of the exercise.

By curtailing the effectiveness of the Armed Forces Tribunals, the Government is destroying the military justice system which is a disservice to serving and retired personnel

The United States (US) is recalibrating its strategy in the Indian Ocean, driven by the region’s rapidly evolving geopolitical and geostrategic landscape. The US approach has moved from unilateral dominance to a more collaborative strategy that emphasises shared leadership through a technology-driven security paradigm. This paradigm supports a rule-based order where regional stakeholders are empowered to adopt more significant roles. The founda

No one believes that India would wipe out Lahore, if Pakistan used a low yield nuclear weapon against an Indian military formation, and that, too, in Pakistan.

Technology affects us in positive ways yet can also be disruptive; such is the case with Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA or more commonly known as drones). While drones are proving to be useful for military, commercial, civilian, and even humanitarian activities, their unregulated use carries serious consequences that need to be addressed. This paper examines drone operations in India and analyses the major policy gaps in the country’s evolving

Neither the drone attacks - a significant technological innovation in air power - nor direct cross-border military raids address the ultimate source of terror, the Pakistan army. They merely target the manifestation of the problem.

In September 2002, the Bush administration officially introduced its national security strategy report. In response to the devastating attacks on the epicentre of America's financial and defence establishment, President Bush outlined the fundamental tenets of a strategy that was authored to contend with changes caused due to the "profound transformation" in the current security environment. President Bush proclaimed that, in order to protect Amer

Leaving Moscow to engage with North Korea may also free China of the burden of having to justify its relations with North Korea in light of Beijing’s increasing business interests with the West

This brief analyses the similarities and differences between the weaponisation of oil and that of gas. Discourse around the weaponisation of energy has increased since 1973, after oil-producing Arab countries attempted to use oil to pressure Europe and the United States to abandon their military aid to Israel. The subject has received renewed interest following recent events, such as the energy tensions between the European Union and the Russian