Author : Manoj Joshi

Originally Published 2019-07-24 05:00:11 Published on Jul 24, 2019
The US merely followed the lead of Britain in pushing the UN resolutions of 1948 making a dispute out of India’s complaint of Pakistani aggression in Kashmir.
Why India should view Trump's idea of mediation with caution

Had it been any US president other than Donald Trump making the claim that he was approached by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to be a ‘mediator’ between India and Pakistan on Kashmir, it would have signalled a major policy earthquake. But since it was Trump, it will go into his list of misleading statements, false claims and outright lies, and be soon forgotten.

But the reasons for jangled nerves in New Delhi are genuine. Building close ties with the US because of China’s rise is an item of faith today. So is the belief that China is preventing India from assuming its rightful status as the primary South Asian power. But the US was the first mover here.

But the reasons for jangled nerves in New Delhi are genuine. Building close ties with the US because of China’s rise is an item of faith today. So is the belief that China is preventing India from assuming its rightful status as the primary South Asian power. But the US was the first mover here.

It queered India’s pitch in the 1950's by entering into a military alliance with Pakistan. This not only blocked a bilateral settlement process, but also persuaded Pakistan that it could actually have effective parity with India in South Asia, something that led to the 1965 war.

The US merely followed the lead of Britain in pushing the UN resolutions of 1948 making a dispute out of India’s complaint of Pakistani aggression in Kashmir. US admiral Chester Nimitz was even appointed ‘plebiscite administrator’ in a move that proved premature.

Subsequently, Owen Dixon and Frank Graham attempted mediation, but they got nowhere. At this point, the UN itself abandoned the issue, saying that bilateral negotiations were the best way out.

But that was not the end of the story. In the wake of India’s defeat in the Sino-Indian war of 1962, the US came to India’s aid and realised that there was no way it could befriend both India and Pakistan, unless the issue of Kashmir was resolved. So, the John F Kennedy administration embarked on the US’ most ambitious effort to settle the Kashmir dispute.

Backed by Britain, the US pushed India and Pakistan into direct negotiations. In five rounds of talks in 1963, the two countries laid down their positions — maximum and minimum. The Pakistanis, led by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, ‘agreed’ to concede the Kathua tehsil, if they got the rest of Jammu & Kashmir.

The Indian team led by Swaran Singh was ready to concede some tehsils of the Kupwara district, leaving rest of the borders as they were.

None of this worked. So, US ambassador John Kenneth Galbraith sought to force the issue in a meeting with Jawaharlal Nehru — the US suggested a partition of the Valley down the Jhelum. Nehru blew his top and that was the end of the negotiations.

The US did not revisit the issue again, although there was a brief flurry in the 1990's when US Assistant Secretary of State Robin Raphel seemed to question the Instrument of Accession. Neither has the UN. And now we have Trump, ready for the whole hog — not just mediation, but even arbitration.

The international community’s support for bilateral discussions has been accepted by Pakistan itself through the Simla Agreement in 1972, and is not born of high principle but practical experience. But there is a lesson here for the Modi team who think that the US alliance is a panacea for India’s foreign and security policy ills.

Like all powers, the US pursues its interests. Notwithstanding all the disclaimers, if US interests demanded mediation or arbitration, you can be sure they would have pursued it.

Like all powers, the US pursues its interests. Notwithstanding all the disclaimers, if US interests demanded mediation or arbitration, you can be sure they would have pursued it.

However, in the wake of Trump’s claim, Alice Wells, the senior official dealing with South Asia, tweeted the official US position, ‘While Kashmir is a bilateral issue for both parties to discuss, the Trump administration welcomes Pakistan and India sitting down and the United States stands ready to assist.’ There is a nuance here staring at you in the face.

If US interests require Americans to ‘assist’, they will most certainly do so. Neither our putative ally nor anyone else recognises Kashmir to be anything but a dispute that needs to be resolved. Nothing beyond that.


This commentary originally appeared in The Economics Times.

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Author

Manoj Joshi

Manoj Joshi

Manoj Joshi is a Distinguished Fellow at the ORF. He has been a journalist specialising on national and international politics and is a commentator and ...

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