A recent analysis by Carbon Brief, which found that nearly 95% of the countries that signed the Paris Agreement have missed the United Nations (UN) deadline to submit new climate pledges for 2035, is cause for worry. The finding comes at a time when United States (US) President Donald Trump has signed an executive order to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, eroding the global momentum for climate action. The countries missing the deadline collectively account for 83% of global emissions and nearly 80% of the world’s economy, raising serious concerns about the agreement’s ability to drive meaningful climate progress. Meanwhile, the intensifying frequency of climate disasters — from record-breaking heatwaves and catastrophic floods to extreme wildfires — underscores the urgent need for decisive leadership. Without immediate and committed action, the Paris Agreement risks becoming an empty promise rather than a binding global commitment.
Under these circumstances, the world needs to urgently fill the leadership vacuum in global climate governance and push for collective action to combat the climate crisis.
The countries missing the deadline collectively account for 83% of global emissions and nearly 80% of the world’s economy, raising serious concerns about the agreement’s ability to drive meaningful climate progress.
Observers believe that the US’s exit from the Paris Agreement has created an opportunity for China and India to take on the global climate leadership. Both nations have demonstrated significant commitment, strong credentials, and leadership potential through proactive measures aimed at reducing carbon emissions.
China has shifted from a traditionally insular foreign policy to a more internationalist approach, particularly in the realm of climate leadership. Following the US’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, China reaffirmed its commitment to multilateralism, with vice premier Ding Xuexiang describing it as the “golden key” to addressing global challenges.
China’s pursuit of global climate leadership is evident through its increasing investments in renewable energy, the expansion of its cap-and-trade system, and its efforts to make the Belt and Road Initiative greener. With the US’s departure creating a leadership void, China is positioning itself as a central player in sustaining international climate action by leveraging policy and market forces to drive the global energy transition.
Although China’s climate action is commendable, the country is not yet in a position to independently assume the level of leadership that climate governance demands. Firstly, despite its aggressive climate initiatives, China remains the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs), producing twice the emissions of the US. This weakens its ability to persuade other nations to adopt more ambitious climate goals. Secondly, China has historically taken a hands-off approach to regional and global diplomacy. Addressing the climate crisis and transforming global energy systems require more assertive leadership, along with the ability to propose ambitious climate goals in the future — an area where China has yet to demonstrate sufficient potential. Thirdly, climate scepticism was a dominant narrative in China until recent years, with the climate crisis often being perceived as a “western conspiracy to constrain the development of China and other developing nations.” This history casts doubt on China’s commitment to taking on an active role in climate leadership.
Addressing the climate crisis and transforming global energy systems require more assertive leadership, along with the ability to propose ambitious climate goals in the future — an area where China has yet to demonstrate sufficient potential.
Given the US’s withdrawal and China’s uncertain climate credentials, India has significant opportunities to counterbalance the current climate leadership dynamics. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reaffirmed India’s commitment to a green transition, emphasising the importance of making the coming years a “green era” while also striving to shape India into a developed nation by 2047.
India’s intensified efforts in climate action represent a strategic move to ensure long-term energy security and economic resilience. These steps highlight India’s leadership in climate action on a global scale. The country is already undergoing a clean energy revolution and has made notable progress in fulfilling its Paris Agreement commitments. To lower emissions, India has launched an extensive renewable energy programme, surpassing past targets and achieving record milestones. In 2024, India expanded its solar capacity by roughly 24.5 gigawatts (GW) and its wind capacity by 3.4 GW, more than doubling its solar installations and increasing its wind capacity by 21% compared to the previous year. By December 2024, the country’s total renewable energy capacity had reached 162.48 GW, with solar power accounting for 97.86 GW and wind power for 48.16 GW.
Looking ahead, India has set an ambitious goal to achieve 500 GW of non-fossil fuel electricity capacity by 2030, which has now been extended to 2031-32. Additionally, the country is continuously refining its policies to reduce coal dependence and speed up the transition to cleaner energy sources. At present, India is well-positioned not only to meet but also to exceed its Paris climate targets.
India is also creating a supportive environment for the widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) by implementing a reduced Goods and Services Tax (GST) on EVs compared to traditional vehicles. The government aims for EVs to account for 30% of new vehicle sales by 2030, with sales projected to reach 10 million units, potentially generating up to five million jobs. Alongside, significant investments are being made in infrastructure, including the establishment of public charging stations, to accommodate the growing demand for EVs. These initiatives underscore India’s dedication to fostering a green energy revolution, attracting investment, generating employment, and boosting the export potential of emerging technologies.
As the world’s largest democracy, India exemplifies how strong climate measures can be successfully integrated with developmental goals.
Beyond ambitious actions, effective climate leadership must align with the needs and priorities of the poor and the most vulnerable populations. As the world’s largest democracy, India exemplifies how strong climate measures can be successfully integrated with developmental goals. India has played a crucial role in climate negotiations, particularly during the Paris Agreement discussions. It has consistently defended the principle of “differentiated responsibilities,” advocating for more flexible climate regulations for developing nations, recognizing their need for greater space to grow within the limited global carbon budget.
Given the current leadership gap, the world will be closely watching India’s role in climate action at key upcoming forums such as the G20 and COP30. As China seeks an international partner to enhance its influence on the global stage, India is in a prime position to seize this opportunity and bridge the leadership void in global climate governance.
This commentary originally appeared in Hindustan Times.
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