As the election reaches its final stages, both candidates have experienced key moments of heightened voter engagement.
With less than 50 days to go until the US presidential election on November 5, the campaigns of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have entered their home stretch. Following their first debate, expectations around key policy issues have become more prominent among voters. Despite heightened attention, however, both candidates face an uphill battle in converting voters from the other camp. As the race tightens, the central strategy for both campaigns is clear: focus on key swing states and sway undecided voters. Polls suggest a narrow overall advantage for Harris, but the candidates are effectively tied in what is shaping up to be one of the closest elections in recent US history. Furthermore, one candidate leads the other based on what the issue is and the state concerned.
Polls suggest a narrow overall advantage for Harris, but the candidates are effectively tied in what is shaping up to be one of the closest elections in recent US history.
Throughout most of the campaign, Trump has maintained a marginal lead over Harris, largely thanks to his unwavering MAGA (Make America Great Again) base and his clearer economic plans. His promise of job creation, anchored by high tariffs and protectionist policies, has resonated with his supporters. In contrast, Harris was initially criticised during the debate for lacking a detailed economic plan. However, in the days following, her campaign has gained momentum. The Democratic Party’s efforts to define Harris’ economic policies and their fundraising success — garnering unprecedented support from political action committees (PACs) and Super PACs — have allowed them to dramatically outspend Trump.
Despite this, Trump remains a central figure in the race and is still within the margin of error for a possible victory. His support in the Sun Belt states — including Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina — gives him a strategic advantage. Polls indicate that 63% of likely voters in these states believe the US is headed in the wrong direction, a sentiment that benefits Trump’s narrative of restoring American greatness. On the other hand, Harris is ahead in key battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. One of her key challenges has been distancing herself from the shortcomings of the Biden-Harris administration, particularly on issues like the economy, immigration, and socially liberal policies that some voters view as divisive. The new energy that Harris seems to have brought to the party as a female, a black, and a younger candidate, seems to have camouflaged her policy failures as Vice President, especially such as those on immigration and gun control. Many feel Trump may be lacking a strategy to exploit Harris’ apparent weakness as part of the current administration.
The gender switch has also added complexity for Trump, whose rhetoric and behaviour toward women have often been scrutinised.
Trump has also been adjusting to the Democratic Party’s decision to replace Biden with Harris as the presidential nominee. This shift upended Trump’s strategy, which had capitalised on Biden’s age and declining popularity. The gender switch has also added complexity for Trump, whose rhetoric and behaviour toward women have often been scrutinised. Nevertheless, Trump showed restraint in his debate performance, opting for a defensive posture rather than launching ad hominem attacks. The combination of Harris’ race, gender, and age has added a fresh dynamic to the election, complicating the usual electoral calculus. Given these factors, it might have been strategic for Trump to decline a second debate with Harris. The upcoming vice-presidential debate between JD Vance for the Republicans and Tim Walz for the Democrats on October 1 now stands as a critical moment in the campaign.
As the election reaches its final stages, both candidates have experienced key moments of heightened voter engagement. Trump saw a surge in support following the first assassination attempt, while Harris gained momentum after her nomination was confirmed at the Democratic National Convention. However, the race remains remarkably close. While domestic issues — such as immigration, jobs, reproductive rights, and gun control — have dominated voter concerns, foreign policy may play an outsized role in determining the final outcome.
The Biden-Harris administration’s tenure has been bookended by major foreign policy dilemmas. Early on, the administration faced the challenge of withdrawing US troops from Afghanistan, which led to a chaotic exit. Now, the administration grapples with unresolved conflicts such as the Ukraine-Russia war and the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. These foreign policy challenges are no longer as distant to the average voter as they once were, due in part to shifting US demographics. Conflict-induced emigration, particularly from West Asia, combined with illegal immigration from southern states and a rising number of illegal asylum seekers, has changed the way Americans view the country’s involvement in global affairs. The recent wave of campus protests across the US reflects a broader shift in public opinion about America’s role in foreign conflicts.
Conflict-induced emigration, particularly from West Asia, combined with illegal immigration from southern states and a rising number of illegal asylum seekers, has changed the way Americans view the country’s involvement in global affairs.
In this context, the tight race between Trump and Harris reflects broader national divides. A CNN poll reveals that 51% of voters believe both candidates have policy positions that align with what they want in a president. However, Trump’s platform appears to resonate more strongly with a larger portion of the electorate, with 29% respondents saying his policies align exactly with their preferences, compared to 18% for Harris. This underscores the strong appeal of Trump’s America-first platform, which has continued to galvanise his base. Perhaps the strongest sentiment favouring Trump may be a change from the current administration in the US, of which Harris is a part.
As the clock winds down to election day, the race remains a toss-up, with both campaigns focusing on razor-thin margins in critical swing states. While Harris may benefit from increased Democratic spending and a growing war chest, Trump’s consistent support in key regions and his ability to mobilise his base suggest that this election will go down to the wire. All eyes are now on the remaining campaign trail events, especially the vice-presidential debate, as both sides work to tip the scales in their favour.
This commentary originally appeared in Financial Express.
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Professor Harsh V. Pant is Vice President – Studies and Foreign Policy at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. He is a Professor of International Relations ...
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Vivek Mishra is Deputy Director – Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation. His work focuses on US foreign policy, domestic politics in the US, ...
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