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For a President who was elected on the promise of putting an end to the wars the US had been involved in for the last few years, it has been a dramatic turnaround to bring the region of the Middle East on the precipice of a new major war. With the US striking several key Iranian nuclear facilities early Sunday, including Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, it is now squarely part of a regional conflict that at one point Trump had claimed he would be able to end. After giving Iran two weeks to enter into substantial negotiations before striking, Trump decided to take a chance within two days by striking Iran.
In his address at the White House, Trump said Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities have been “totally obliterated” and warned the US could go after additional targets if Iran does not make peace. For its part, Iran has condemned the US strikes as "outrageous", warning of “everlasting consequences” and underlining that it was reserving “all options to defend its sovereignty”.
And then Trump used Iran's limited missile reprisal against the US base in Qatar to announce a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. “CONGRATULATIONS WORLD, ITS TIME FOR PEACE!” he posted on Truth Social. Within hours, however, Israel's defence minister accused Iran of violating the truce and promised "powerful strikes" in response. It is anybody's guess at the moment if the conflict will subside gradually or will enter into a more decisive phase. But Trump is signalling that for the US this is the most he is willing to go at of now.
In the first operational use of its kind, the US forces deployed the 30,000-pound GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bomb, known as a “bunker buster”, to target the deeply buried nuclear facilities of Iran. It’s not clear how successful the US operation has been, but the Iranians have claimed that they had already moved all the nuclear material out of the sites.
The US is also hinting in that direction. After the most aggressive display of power unlike any against Iran since the Islamic Revolution of 1970, the US has signalled that, for now, its military action is over, and that it is not aimed at bringing down the regime in Iran.
There is indeed a window of opportunity. If the nuclear sites targeted are indeed out of operation, Israel's Prime Minister can use that to de-escalate, citing the achievement of his primary war objective. The US is also hinting in that direction. After the most aggressive display of power unlike any against Iran since the Islamic Revolution of 1970, the US has signalled that, for now, its military action is over, and that it is not aimed at bringing down the regime in Iran.
Yet, it may not be enough for the Iranian government to save face. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, has acknowledged that he does not know how “much room is left for diplomacy” after the US attacks by underscoring that the US “crossed a very big red line by attacking nuclear facilities”. “We have to respond based on our legitimate right for self-defence,” he said.
Just last week, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had vowed to hit back at the US were it to enter the war. “The Americans should know that any US military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage,” he had thundered. And, as if on cue, the key allies of Iran, the Houthis in Yemen, had threatened to target US ships passing through the Red Sea if America joined Israel in the war. The Iranian parliament has already approved a plan to close the Strait of Hormuz though its operationalisation will depend on the cost benefit calculus in Tehran about its wider ramifications.
Khamenei’s political legitimacy rests on his ability to stand up to the ‘Great Satan’, the US. While America may not be targeting the regime directly, these attacks are a clear challenge to his authority, which he won’t be able to let go of without a response.
For Trump, too, this is a turning point. While he seems to be betting that Israeli and American defanging of Iran will make it come to the negotiating table in a position of weakness, Iran’s defiance when under duress is legendary; the Iranian regime would be loath to be seen as negotiating under pressure. Trump is likely to be disappointed in that regard. And, if Tehran continues to be defiant, then it will become politically difficult for Trump not to strike again to dial up the pressure further. Israel has it own internal dynamic to contend with.
Not surprisingly, Trump seems annoyed with both Iran and Israel for not adhering to his ceasefire script. Accusing both Israel and Iran of violating the terms of the ceasefire, he issues a warning to Israel: "ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!"
US President Donald Trump’s decision to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities will “change history”, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has suggested. For someone who actually managed to get what he had wanted for a long time, Netanyahu is right in assessing that Trump may have changed the course of history with his actions. But the final chapter in this history is yet to be written.
This commentary originally appeared in NDTV.
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Professor Harsh V. Pant is Vice President – Studies and Foreign Policy at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. He is a Professor of International Relations ...
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