Originally Published 2017-06-30 07:27:09 Published on Jun 30, 2017
The Qatar crisis unfolded soon after the Riyadh summit of Muslim countries, attended by President Trump. Iran was the whipping boy at the Riyadh summit.
These troubled waters
The current attempt by a coalition of Sunni Arab states, including fellow members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, to isolate and pressurise Qatar, also a fellow member, has unleashed geopolitical forces in West Asia that are likely to further destabilise the already volatile region. The President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, added to the trouble by condemning Qatar in highly inflammatory language, blaming it for abetting terrorism and virtually putting the small but one of the richest countries in the world in the dock. Trump seems to be pandering to the wishes of the Sunni Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia, along with Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen. Even the Maldives has joined this group and snapped diplomatic relations with Qatar. Saudi money seems to have bought Maldivian loyalty. This coercive move seeks to force Qatar to abandon its independent foreign policy that has angered these Arab countries. Oman and Kuwait, also fellow members of the GCC, have refused to join the anti-Qatar bandwagon. Kuwait's Emir has tried to mediate between the so-called brotherly Arab nations without success. Qatar's foreign minister had earlier issued a defiant statement refusing to be cowed down by the orchestrated pressure, asserting that Qatar will not surrender its independent policy. The US secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, has called for dialogue while Trump continues to pander to Saudi Arabia. This doublespeak is gradually becoming the hallmark of the Trump administration's foreign policy. Currently, it appears that the Trump administration is trying to get all parties together for negotiations in Washington to cool the temperature and find a way out of the crisis. The anger against Qatar stems from several factors. The present round of pressure is aimed at muzzling the well-known Qatari-owned satellite television channel, Al Jazeera, and other media outlets owned by Qatar. These media outlets have carried critical reports on many Arab countries, judiciously sparing their owner. Qatar is also facing demands for the expulsion of leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas who have sought refuge in Doha. Both these organisations have been accused of terrorism and are reported to have received funding from Qatar. There is a media war underway with an Egyptian general who set up the Qatari intelligence service. Qatar's rulers have been slammed for fomenting trouble across the region and in many countries in Asia and Africa. The said general has also accused them of helping Iran create trouble in Arab countries. Another significant demand is that Qatar scale down its relations with Iran, which is accused of terrorism and is locked in a struggle for regional supremacy with Saudi Arabia and its allies. Qatar shares the world's largest off-shore gas field with Iran and has maintained cordial relations with the country, like Oman and Kuwait. It has also provoked Saudi ire by paying a huge ransom (reportedly one billion dollars) to Iraqi security officials and Jabhat al-Nusra, an al Qaida offshoot in Syria that is fighting against the government of Bashar al-Assad, for the release of 26 members of the royal family, including their companions, kidnapped while on a falcon hunt in southern Iraq. The squeeze on Qatar has focused on choking off food supplies since the country imports over 90 per cent of its food requirements. The pressure may well be aimed at encouraging a palace coup to replace the current emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, who has been quite an independent-minded ruler. Disgruntled members of the royal family in exile are apparently being set up to form an opposition. Qatar is not without friends in the region. Iran and Turkey have announced that they will assist Qatar with food supplies. Turkey has announced that it will send more troops to Qatar to augment its existing garrison and will protect the royal family. Although President Trump supports Saudi Arabia, American role will also be crucial as the US has a central command air base in Qatar that stations 11,000 military personnel. Russia too is fishing in these troubled waters. The Qatari foreign minister was in Moscow recently to consult with Russian leaders. A large expatriate population, including around 650,000 Indians, is based in Qatar whose own nationals number about 300,000 out of a population of 2.2 million. India's dilemma is acute as it has friendly relations with all these countries. India's official reaction to the crisis is a boilerplate statement. There is not much India can do in what is basically a fratricidal dispute underpinned by regional geopolitical rivalries. India's worries will be focused on the welfare of its citizens and the flow of energy, mainly gas from Qatar. Qatar will find it difficult to give in to Saudi demands because it will then become a vassal state like Bahrain, where a Sunni Muslim royal family rules a majority Shia population, supported by a sizeable Saudi military presence that helped crush a popular uprising in 2011. Qatar can hold out for some time but it is not certain that it can hold out for long, given the air embargo and closure of land frontiers with Saudi Arabia, the main supply route for food items and drinking water. Shipping lanes to Qatar remain open. It has already called for negotiations, as Saudi Arabia steps up efforts to rope in other Muslim countries to join the blockade. Curiously, this crisis unfolded soon after the Riyadh summit of Muslim countries attended by President Trump. Iran was clearly the whipping boy at the Riyadh summit. Trump claimed to have clinched an arms deal worth billions of dollars with Saudi Arabia to confront the Iranian threat. The terrorist attacks on the Iranian Parliament and Ayatollah Khomeini's memorial in Tehran followed thereafter. The Qatar crisis may be the beginning of a new conflict initiated by Trump to milk the situation for making America great again. This commentary originally appeared in The Telegraph.
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Author

Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty

Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty

Pinak Chakravarty is a Visiting Fellow with ORF's Regional Studies Initiative where he oversees the West Asia Initiative Bangladesh and selected ASEAN-related issues. He joined ...

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