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Harsh V Pant, Ed., “The World in 2025: An Epilogue,” ORF Special Report No. 294, Observer Research Foundation, December 2025.
In 2025, the international system reached a critical inflection point, signalling the definitive end of the post-Cold War “unipolar moment”. The era of uncontested US hegemony appears to be rapidly giving way to a reconfigured landscape defined by intense major-power contestations and a burgeoning multipolarity. While the United States (US) still retains formidable material capabilities, its heft in dictating global pathways, and outcomes, is getting increasingly constrained. In its stead is evolving an international system where the imperatives of power politics are re-asserting themselves over the normative aspirations of institutional liberalism.
As the year ended, it was clear that the second term of Donald Trump has fundamentally altered the structural contours of the international system, with Trump’s “America First” agenda no longer a rhetorical flourish but the operational reality of a world defined by blunt, transactional statecraft. His administration has thrived on a definitive repudiation of the post-Cold War consensus, forcing allies and adversaries alike to navigate a landscape of strategic unpredictability. The weaponisation of tariffs against partners and rivals alike has disrupted global supply chains, yet it has also catalysed middle powers like India to assert their own “strategic autonomy”. While the personal rapport between leaders may sometimes serve as a tactical guardrail, the broader systemic reality is one where Washington seems no longer willing to bear the disproportionate costs of a “rules-based order” that it views as inimical to its core national interests. As a consequence, the world order is being redefined not by American retreat, but by a calculated rebalancing, on the one hand, and China’s technological prowess and assertive revisionism on the other.
Yet the current order is not merely a bipolar reenactment of the past. Rather, it is a more complex constellation of power, where actors like the European Union, a Russia that is becoming more assertive, and a more confident India, are staking their strategic agency; in this landscape, middle powers are no longer content standing in the periphery but are actively seeking to shape the rules of the road. The Global South has ceased being a passive bystander amidst these great-power rivalries. Nations across Asia, Africa, and Latin America are asserting their own developmental priorities and creating alternative frameworks for governance. Absent any serious leadership on the global stage, the void is being filled by a more diverse, albeit more fragmented, discourse.
The contemporary international system is being defined by a profound mismatch between institutional legacy and structural reality. As systemic fractures deepen, traditional multilateral frameworks—once the bedrock of the liberal international order—are struggling to maintain relevance. This institutional inertia is not merely a bureaucratic failure; it is a symptom of a deeper structural malaise. The inability of established organs to deliver collective public goods has amplified the clamour for a radical overhaul of the global governance architecture. States are beginning to realise that while they compete for strategic space, the “global commons” require a pragmatic, issue-based engagement that moves beyond the rigidities of 20th-century multilateralism.
Power is no longer concentrated but diffused across a multipolar spectrum, where economic networks are being systematically weaponised and security postures are dictated by the raw imperatives of great-power rivalry. Hard power is back in vogue, unlike at any other time in recent memory, as the central instrument of inter-state engagement. Against this backdrop, states are perpetually negotiating the fine line between adversarial competition and tactical cooperation. To understand the contours of the 2025 world order, it is important to go beyond the rhetoric of "rules-based" systems and appreciate the hard-nosed calculations of power, interest, and strategy that now define the global stage. For emerging powers like India, this represents both a challenge and an opportunity to shape a "multipolarity" that reflects the diverse interests of a post-Western world.
This annual report from ORF researchers takes stock of the year gone by. Like in the previous years, this edition delineates three trends that shaped different geographies and domains in the past year. The first section looks at major powers as the second Trump Administration managed to unleash a new security doctrine firmly embedded in the western hemisphere and an economic policy that has fundamentally ruptured global trust in the US. China has had success in pushing back against Trump this year even as domestic challenges are growing on the economic and military fronts. Europe has struggled to cope with the upending of the transatlantic alliance under Trump 2.0, seeking a reduction in its security dependence on the US and building partnerships across the world. Russia, meanwhile, demonstrated resilience both on the battlefield and in global diplomacy though the much anticipated conclusion of the Ukraine war remained elusive.
The second section engages with key geographies. If the Indo-Pacific saw a weakening of cohesion of the regional security order, the Middle East witnessed regional actors taking on regional security with a greater sense of urgency. The Central Asian Republics, for their part, sought greater diversification in their strategic partnerships, even as the US made a dramatic entry in Latin America with the Trump administration seeking to restore American pre-eminence in the western hemisphere. In Africa, diplomatic breakthroughs juxtaposed with growing governance and security crises, while in South Asia, the youth power gained ground to challenge the status quo even as Pakistan’s diplomatic outreach gathered pace amidst an all-round internal decline.
The final section examines some of the most crucial global issues of the past year as the shadow of fragmentation loomed large over the international system. In warfare, integration of capabilities emerged as a driver of success while in trade, the Trump administration’s economic reliability took a beating with long-term costs. The best that could be said about multilateralism is that it managed to survive. In the tech space, nations are reasserting their dominance while the development sector is facing serious budgetary constraints. Even as climate security concerns have begun to take centre stage, climate finance commitments continue to fall short in delivery. The global health agenda also witnessed upheavals in financing and governance despite a certain degree of international consensus being built around addressing contemporary health challenges.
As we move into 2026, the trends identified in this report will continue to influence our external environment. Our aim is for the insights presented here to inspire deeper discussion and promote more constructive policy conversation—not only to gain a better understanding of the world, but also to navigate it effectively with a forward-looking perspective.
Read the report here.
All views expressed in this publication are solely those of the authors, and do not represent the Observer Research Foundation, either in its entirety or its officials and personnel.
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Professor Harsh V. Pant is Vice President - ORF and Studies at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. He is a Professor of International Relations with ...
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