Editors’ Note 

The Arctic region is experiencing rapid change along multiple fronts: the opening of new maritime trade routes, the region’s vulnerability to climate change and environmental degradation, its enormous natural resources, and the extractive industries vying for them, as well as, most importantly, its status as a new geopolitical theatre. Years before the High North became a crucial geopolitical and geoeconomic arena, geoscientists were the first to recognise that ‘what happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic’. This phenomenon, known to scientists as ‘teleconnections,’ is showcasing increasingly wide-scale ramifications, including in tropical and equatorial countries that previously had no stake in Arctic affairs. With the Arctic poised to experience a surge in economic activity, these teleconnections are likely to become the cornerstone of international relations.

The Arctic at a Crossroads: The Making of a New Frontier brings together scholars from various Arctic and non-Arctic countries to present realistic observations and their vision and recommendations for the region. Their expertise spans climate sciences, area studies, international relations, sustainable and clean energy, ocean and maritime studies, and science and policy studies related to the polar regions.

A common understanding that emerges from the essays in this compendium is the equal role of Global North and South countries in ensuring that economic progress in the Arctic is carried out with stringent environmental and climate action measures, while protecting the welfare of native Arctic communities and their cultures. For that to happen, all possible mechanisms to promote and ensure international consensus must be put into motion. For comprehensive and holistic progress in the Arctic, there is now a need for the scientific exploration of environmental and climatic changes, for which Arctic science cooperation must be significantly enhanced. Similarly, economic activities cannot prevail without considering sustainable measures, such as using clean energy and fuels, pursuing net-zero policies, and preventing the pollution of permafrost, glaciers, lakes, the Arctic Ocean, and the region’s air (primarily from greenhouse gases, black carbon, and other particulate matter). These factors must determine the evolution of geoeconomics and geopolitics in the Arctic.

In her essay for ‘The Arctic Alarm: Climate Signals from the North’ section, Uma Bhatt notes that rapid environmental changes in the Arctic have far-reaching ramifications worldwide, affecting monsoon systems, leading to extreme precipitation events, and triggering climate change-induced security scenarios. She argues that India, a non-Arctic nation, needs to utilise its scientific and technological capabilities in the Arctic to assume a leadership role to shape Arctic policies that are essential for a safe and resilient future of the world.

Irina Strelnikova observes that international relations, particularly in the post-2022 era, have strained the scientific cooperation essential for the Arctic region. The resumption of dialogue between Russia and the West is imperative for continued Arctic scientific monitoring and to prevent gaps in understanding the potential long-term implications on the global climate. She also advocates for increased participation by Asian countries in Arctic science diplomacy, particularly in areas such as navigation safety and biodiversity conservation, which fall beyond the scope of the Arctic Council.

Next, Shailly Kedia and Abhilash Kolekar highlight the steps necessary for the sustained global governance of the Arctic region. They note that Arctic governance cannot be modelled on the principles of the Common Heritage of Mankind, as is the case with Antarctic governance. Littoral nations oppose a commons approach in favour of preserving their sovereignty. Nonetheless, a moratorium on commercial activities in the Central Arctic Ocean must be maintained in some form beyond the current 16-year period. Furthermore, they emphasise the importance of integrating Arctic scientific data collected by climate action organisations and international meteorological and space agencies into policy and economic decision-making processes. Lastly, they highlight that the concept of nationally determined contributions is inherently state-centric and lacks provisions for transboundary impacts, a matter that warrants review as safeguarding the Arctic has increasingly become a global concern.

Kamrul Hossain emphasises the importance of the Earth’s cryosphere, which plays a crucial role in regulating global surface temperatures. Any perturbations in the cryosphere, whether in the Arctic or Antarctic, will have an impact on cryospheres in the tropics. Hossain suggests that pursuing a unified examination of the global cryosphere is necessary to comprehend planetary-scale environmental feedback loops.

Zerin Osho presents a realistic scenario in which Arctic governance mechanisms struggle to keep pace with the accelerated impacts of climate change. These impacts will only heighten as melting Arctic ice unlocks access to vast mineral and petroleum resources. If the extraction remains unchecked due to unbridled ambitions for oceanic connectivity, the Arctic ecosystem is at risk of enormous degradation. To mitigate this grave scenario, Osho emphasises the need for the Asia-Arctic Five (India, China, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore) to assert their influence over the Arctic Council’s engagements. Their neutral influence will alleviate tensions within the Council and refocus attention on global cooperation in this crucial region.

Next, in the opening essay for ‘The Arctic Laboratory: Unlocking Opportunities of Science’ section, Mikatekiso Kubayi notes that most scientific cooperation pursuits are driven by modern instruments established by countries that are signatories to the Antarctic Treaty. However, this approach does not account for the experiences and knowledge of the Arctic’s indigenous communities. He suggests that although many countries in the Global South cannot invest vast monetary resources in expensive Arctic research infrastructure, mechanisms should be developed to include them in this collective global pursuit, as they are also vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

Sulagna Chattopadhyay presents a historical account of how large swaths of the Arctic were once transferred from one country to another: from Russia to the US, from the US to the UK, and from the UK to Norway. The world’s perception of the Arctic region is undergoing a similar transformation. She highlights the significance of the ‘Scandinavian Code’—a set of distinct laws, codes of conduct, and ethics typical of the Scandinavian countries—which the Global South must become familiar with to gain access to the Arctic.

Amid growing commercial interests in the Arctic, Alexandra Middleton recommends that economic actors pursue science-informed business strategies based on evidence gathered through peer-reviewed mechanisms provided by international scientific bodies, and adopt science-based environmental, social, and governance frameworks that align with sustainable activities in the Arctic. Both these regulatory pursuits should be undertaken through a dedicated, multilateral platform that facilitates intersectional science-business collaboration.

Corine Wood-Donnelly highlights the importance of generating continuous temporal scientific datasets as governments worldwide strive to monitor both minute and broader changes occurring in the Arctic. She also notes the underwhelming role of social science and the humanities in Arctic studies and recommends that these be explored further amid the growing political, economic, and multidisciplinary dynamics emerging in the region.

Maria Lagutina’s essay focuses on Russia’s Arctic policy and the growing pivot towards Asia in the aftermath of 2022. As the largest Arctic littoral country, Russia has long invested in scientific infrastructure and pursued Arctic studies. She urges India and Russia to explore new avenues of Arctic science-business cooperation, with the intention that India establishes its presence in the Arctic in a significantly expanded form than what its Himadri Station currently offers.

In the next section, ‘The Arctic Opportunity: New Business Pathways,’ Nima Khorrami’s essay explores China’s multifaceted Arctic strategy that links resource extraction, maritime logistics, scientific research and dual-use technology development. China is the first Asian country south of the Arctic Circle to refer to itself as near-Arctic, and an influential operator in the Northern Sea Route (NSR), which highlights its ambition to shape the discourse, then the normative order of the Arctic, and further institutionalise its Arctic presence. However, China’s Arctic ambitions are not without challenges, particularly Western sanctions and Russia’s consternation about the skewed bilateral ties.

Pavel Gudev further elaborates on the significance of the NSR, its legal interpretations by the US and Russia, and how Russia, with the longest coastline among Arctic nations, differentiates between domestic maritime transport routes and international transit routes. Such legal interpretations require careful examination, considering national sensitivity, particularly as international maritime activities are expected to increase in Arctic waters.

Monty Khanna highlights completely novel areas of opportunity for India, leveraging its existing large workforce and expertise in the maritime, hospitality, and healthcare industries. With pleasant summers and habitats designed to withstand harsh winters, the hospitality sector in the Arctic is expected to grow, driving demand for well-trained professionals. As the Arctic population increases due to the intensification of economic activities, well-trained medical and para-medical professionals will be needed to operate in these harsh geographies. Likewise, with more traffic passing through the NSR, seafarers will be in demand, especially those trained on icebreaker ships.

Chaitanya Giri and Sayantan Haldar discuss the significance of hydrogen and ammonia as fuels in efforts to decarbonise the diesel-based road and rail transportation in the Arctic region, which also contributes to black carbon emissions, a threat to the region’s environment. Since most rail and road networks are built for the transportation of petroleum and mineral resources, decarbonisation of these networks using grey hydrogen fuel derived from natural gas, and turquoise hydrogen fuel derived from methane seepage should be promoted. Similarly, hydrogen, particularly in the form of ammonia, could serve as a clean fuel for ships operating in Arctic waters.

Sakiko Hataya writes about Japan’s active and constructive role in Arctic affairs, including environmental matters, and the development of advanced mitigation technologies necessary for preventing and mitigating damages caused in this sensitive Arctic region. Notably, through its positive bilateral and multilateral contributions with Arctic Council member countries, Japan, a Council observer state, has highlighted the role non-members can play.

In her essay for the final section, ‘Geopolitics in the Arctic: An Emerging Great Game,’ Jennifer Spence emphasises the necessity for the mainstream media to look beyond existing narratives on Arctic affairs. There exists considerable potential for news coverage that underscores the leadership, resilience, and traditional knowledge of Arctic communities, as well as the complexities of Arctic governance, international collaboration, and science diplomacy.

Andreas Østhagen and Andreas Raspotnik present a unique security insight from Scandinavian countries. Although the Nordic countries continue to have their independent perspectives and priorities in the Arctic, the security equilibrium has now shifted since these countries have become NATO members, and as NATO and EU institutional collaboration has strengthened.

Elizabeth Buchanan discusses how the Arctic theatre, previously characterised as a conflict between the West and the Soviet Union, has now evolved into a confrontation between the ‘West’ and the ‘rest’. Moscow’s inclusion of Asian partners in its strategic initiatives is indicative of the ‘Arctic Great Game’. The rivalry among great powers is expected to accelerate resource extraction, increase pollution in the Arctic region, and potentially lead to the termination of the moratorium on fishing in the Central Arctic Ocean.

Next, Christopher Rossi highlights the origins of the Arctic Council, based on the premise of Arctic exceptionalism and its status as a ‘zone of peace’. However, progress made by the Arctic Council on non-military conversations has come to a standstill since 2022. He delves into the identification of a new ‘heartland’, based on Halford Mackinder’s construct, centred around Ukraine, while Russia assumes its heartland also consists of the Arctic. The Arctic, according to Rossi, has begun to appear as an arena of hybrid tension; however, he suggests that this is a distraction from the real game being played in Eastern Europe and the South China Sea.

The Arctic, despite not being a global common, has the potential to transcend the rhetoric and theories of international relations. It constitutes a zone of constructive international cooperation that serves the interests of the global good. Conversely, it also functions as a domain of significant power competition. This compendium offers comprehensive insights into the prospective development of this cooperation, emphasising the roles played by non-Arctic actors as Arctic littoral nations endeavour to resolve their political and ideological differences. It is hoped that this compendium will aid foreign policy analysts, scientists, business entities, innovative startups, scholars, and policymakers in their efforts to advance constructive progress in the Arctic region. Furthermore, it recognises that progress in this region has teleconnections with the Global South, which stands to gain more from collaborative development than from escalating adversarial conflicts.

Read the volume here.

• Maritime Security
• India
• arctic climate change
• arctic governance
• arctic great game
• arctic trade routes
• asian engagement in arctic region
• environmental changes in arctic
• native arctic communities

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