Exploring Sino-Myanmar relations, Maldives' political crisis and other recent developments from South Asia.
Sreeparna Banerjee
Myanmar is soaring high since participating in the Second Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation held from 25-28 April 2019 at Beijing, China. The nation formally became a BRI partner-country after signing a 15-point MoU establishing the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) in September 2018.
State Counsellor and Foreign Minister Aung San Suu Kyi has since returned home with a Chinese grant of 1 billion yuan ($148 million) for development project in the country. The grant would be used for projects to improve people’s livelihoods, studies for major projects and humanitarian assistance for people displaced by civil war in northern Myanmar.
During Suu Kyi’s six-day visit, the two nations signed three agreements – the Agreement on Economic and Technical Cooperation, Memorandum of Understanding on the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) Cooperation Plan (2019-30), and the Memorandum of Understanding on the Formulation of the Five-Year Development Programme for Economic and Trade Cooperation, which aims to enhance cooperation in investment and productivity.
The MoU on CMEC is envisaged to promote cooperation in the following areas in line with the Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan -- industry, transportation, energy, agriculture, “digital silk road”, finance, tourism, environmental protection, people-to-people exchanges, science and technology, personnel training, water resources and flood prevention and control.
The estimated 1,700-kilometre-long corridor is supposed to connect Kunming, the capital of China’s Yunnan province, to Myanmar’s major economic checkpoints, at Mandalay, Yangon and the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone (SEZ).
China has proposed 30 projects under the CMEC but Myanmar has approved only nine so far. Under the CMEC agreement, the Myanmar government agrees to build three border economic cooperation zones in Shan and Kachin states.
It was extremely interesting to observe that there was no mention of the Myitsone dam during Suu Kyi’s Beijing visit, hence no mention of any collaboration between the two nations on the same. As is known, the project for long has been mired in controversy.
The Myitsone project envisaged the construction of a dam 3.2 km south of the confluence of the Mali Hka and the N’Mai Hka Rivers, where the River Irrawaddy originates. The hydro-power part of the reservoir was to have an installed capacity of 6,000 MW. Under the initial agreement, 90 percent of the electricity generated was to be sold to China and the rest was to be been available for Myanmar’s use, free of charge.
The deal has been strongly criticised in Myanmar as it was seen as a “one-sided” project that was tilted overwhelmingly in China’s favour, with few benefits for Myanmar. Concern also exists that China will gain control over one of Myanmar’s “main water sources”, which will leave the country “more vulnerable” to Chinese pressure.
Besides, there are concerns over social and environmental costs that the local population has to bear. The mega-dam is expected to flood 766 sqkm of territory in the Kachin state, and over 15,000 persons are likely to be displaced and deprived of their livelihoods. The flooding will destroy the rich biodiversity of the area, as well as disrupt agricultural lands and fisheries in both the immediate area and downstream.
Of additional concern, the dam is located in an earthquake-prone area—and damage to the dam in the event of an earthquake could result in flooding of Myitkyina, situated 40 km downstream. Thus, people sentiment had been thoroughly negative when the proposal was again surfaced in recent times.
Suu Kyi’s NLD government is also weighing its stance carefully by not wholly committing to the project so that the people remain in their favour since the general election is knocking at the door and the ethnic minority holds an important and sizable percentage of votes. It is also trying to not upset its good friend, neighbour and saviour China by entering the orbit of BRI and also in the sidelines looking for other feasible locations to execute the hydro power projects and also holding talks to shrink investments.
China has always favoured the geopolitical importance Myanmar serves. Myitsone dam was considered important since the electricity generated was seen to be useful for the industrialization and development of Yunnan. However, in recent years Yunnan has developed a greater electrical production capacity, and is even exporting its surplus.
But the recent push given to Myanmar was seen as a strategic move to softly coerce the latter for huge compensation. But it seems that China is more focussed on the larger influence it has over the Kyaukphu deep sea port and CMEC. Thus, Myitsone in its current stage remains a ‘win-win’ since whether it is constructed or relocated or other projects are created or compensations are pulled, no matter which shape it may take, the Chinese stake continues to remain high.
N Sathiya Moorthy
Following his twin electoral failures of the past months, former President Abdulla Yameen seems needing his party and the socialist-conservative constituency more than ever. However, the constituency, and possibly the party/parties, too, seem to be looking out for a new and credible leadership that can lead them to victory in the nation-wide local council polls next year – and beyond, too.
The divided socialist-conservative constituency that was demoralised, especially after President Ibrahim Solih’s Maldivian Democratic Party’s (MDP) ‘clean sweep’ of the parliamentary polls last month, have now cause for some hope – though not celebration. Though Yameen had lost the presidential polls, his 42-percent vote-share against victorious Solih’s 58 percent had kept their hopes alive. But not after provisional results of the parliamentary polls gave the MDP 65 of the 87 seats, with a whopping vote-share of 75 percent.
According to the official results, published a few days after the polls, the MDP, while retaining the provisionally-declared 65 seats, however, has polled only 46 percent. Critics of the party are quick to claim the rest are all non-MDP voters though many of them too are ‘anti-Yameen’. It is based on such a construct that some of them are already talking about a new leadership for Yameen’s PPM-PNC combine.
Even before the parliamentary polls, others were also speaking of the need and possibility of expanding re-discovering the traditional ‘socialist-conservative’ base. According to them, the constituency suffered the first set-back when incumbent President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom lost to MDP’s Mohammed Nasheed in the first multi-party democracy polls of 2008. Further deterioration set in when Yameen lost to Solih in the 23 September presidential polls last year.
The conservatives, other than close aides of Yameen are not ready to concede much credit to him for winning the 2013 presidential polls against Nasheed, who had ‘quit’ office before his five-year term ended, in February 2012. According to them, whether it was Nasheed (2008), or Yameen (2013) or Solih (2018), their victory in the presidential polls owed to a cross-ideology coalition, based on more immediate issues.
In the eyes of the traditional conservatives, all three were anti-incumbency votes, whether long term or short. To them, Gayoom’s 30 years’ of rule was their best, and also of the nation’s – but others, contest. They are unwilling to consider, leave alone concede the emergence of a pro-democracy plank, under the MDP, particularly with the passing of generations.
Youth comprises over half the nation’s population/voters. Independent analysts have argued that born into new-found prosperity heralded by the Gayoom regime, the youth of the ‘communication era’ were/are inclined to looking for change as much in governmental approach as in personal life and life-styles.
The conservatives concede the point half-heartedly, but counter-argue. To them, Gayoom’s inability to change with the times and with the new-generations was the cause of his electoral downfall and of their constituency. They have no explanation, why then should Yameen, Gayoom’s estranged half-brother, too, failed the same way, to the same, right-liberal constituency. Their inability to ‘speak the language of the youth’, and also their overarching inability to ‘communicate’ can explain their failure/failings, only partially.
That all is not well for the Gayoom clan, comprising the two ex-Presidents and the former’s four politician-children became clearer during the September polls last year, when the two lost even more miserably in the parliamentary polls. Yet, the ‘unkindest cut’, if it could be called, in Yameen’s case came about when his chosen PPM House leader Ahmed Nihan Hussain Manik quit the post after losing his seat in the new Parliament, to be sworn in on 28 May.
Nihan, who incidentally was sent back from the Chennai airport in India after Yameen presidency’s anti-democracy initiatives last year, did not stop there. He wanted the entire party leadership to quit as well, providing for the new generation to take over the reins for the future. Translated, it meant that Yameen had failed the party and/or the nation’s conservatives, and should quit, too.
Nihan did not talk about the pending and upcoming court cases and investigations against Yameen, which could tie down the PPM-PNC combine in unending legal knots and political embarrassment, in the coming months, especially ahead of next year’s local council polls. Though Yameen’s arrest and legal problems were not unexpected, his untimely arrest only a month ahead of the parliamentary polls did demoralise the campaign cadres, denied the party the required leadership and funds, until the High Court released both only a week ahead of polling – too late for their good.
The trial against Yameen in the ‘money-laundering case’ can go all the way up to the Supreme Court. So do can other criminal cases that the police is just now investigating – apart from those that may be taken up for his ‘anti-democracy’ acts and decisions, if the MDP administration could find a way to hold him legally and constitutionally accountable.
Today, Yameen needs the party more than ever before. It was equally so when he was contesting the presidential polls in 2013. The party’s need for his leadership was confined to the term of his presidency, he having foisted himself on the PPM, ousting even party founder Gayoom. So much so, when the Maldives Independent, reporting Nihan’s decision and suggestion, indicated that the PPM-PNC combine might look for a younger leader, Yameen promptly named two vice-presidents for the former.
One of the two vice-presidents, Ghassan Maumoon, is one of the elected PPM parliamentarians now, is one of half-brother Gayoom’s four children. With the Gayoom clan otherwise down and out, with older son, Faaris, a one-time presidential aspirant, losing his parliamentary seat too this time, Yameen seems to be hoping to re-orient Gayoom’s 45 percent ‘family votes’ from Elections-2008, and leverage to regain his lost constituency (42 percent vote-share) from last year’s presidential polls at the very least.
The ‘Gayoom constituency’ is no more there, but the conservatives still seem to dominate the electoral scene, though divided as they are. Or, that seems to be the calculation of all those who want an anti-MDP grouping to emerge. The Maldives Independent had named Yameen’s estranged Home Minister Umar Naseer and/or impeached Vice-President Mohamed Jameel Ahmed as possible candidate(s).
Though neither has reacted, there may be another or other ‘dark horse(s)’, if at all it came to that. Given the emerging national, regional and global scenario, the PPM, wanting to shed the ‘conservative image’, may also consider electing a woman leader. As may be recalled, the MDP, wanting set a precedent and sent out a message, chose Mariya Didi, now Defence Minister, as the party’s chairperson when Nasheed was President. It is another matter even otherwise, the MDP had appealed to the urban woman-voters, and also youth of both genders.
Whatever the future holds, the MDP cannot afford to overlook the conservatives’ argument that all that is not the party’s votes is theirs – only to be mopped up under an all-acceptable common leader, or a collective leadership, whether under a single party or more. Citing the parliamentary poll figures, the argument is that the remaining 54 percent was non-MDP, mostly anti-Yameen votes, and can be clubbed together as ‘conservative constituency’ still.
With 81.3 percent of the 264,442 votes polled, Yameen’s PPM-PNC combine polled 16 percent vote-share from 46 constituencies, though winning only eight seats. Outgoing Speaker Gasim Ibrahim’s Jumhoore Party (JP), which continues to be in the MDP-led ruling coalition even while contesting against the party -- that too in the PPM-PNC company, brokered at the last minute, polled 11.2 percent votes, winning five seats out of 41 contested.
Independent candidates, including 21 fielded by Gayoom’s Maldives Reform Movement (MRM), and adding up to 174, polled the second highest 21.6 percent votes. Among the seven victors, one is from Gayoom’s MRM but most others, including JP and PPM rebels, are expected to work with President Solih. For the record, PPM’s one-time coalition partner in the Maldives Development Alliance (MDA) won two seats with 2.9 percent vote-share.
These figures read better than the provisional figures put out by the ‘The Edition-Mihaaru’ media house. While seat-shares are exact as the final figures, the provisional figures had put the MDP vote-share at an all-time high of 75 percent for any political party or candidate in the ‘democracy era’. According to the provisional figures, the PPM-PNC combine got nine percent votes, JP five percent and Independents 8.5 percent.
The question still remains such calculations of the non-MDP/anti-MDP ‘conservatives’ are relevant to the ground situation? If nothing else, soon after the presidential polls, the future, if not fate, of the Yameen-centric PPM-PNC combine was known, so was the MDP decision to go it alone, leaving behind the three allies whose votes (too) had helped Solih win the presidency for the party.
Yet, the ‘anti-MDP’ parties and the Independents, including Gayoom’s MRM, could not bring themselves around to working together and more particularly to work with/under Yameen. They however can have consolation that incumbent Yameen’s 42 percent in the presidential polls that he contested alone was close to MDP’s 46 percent in the parliamentary elections, which the party faced on its own. The rest is all speculation in and for the future!
At the end of the consultative peace Jirga, Kabul, the delegates have issued a 23-Article resolution requesting the Afghan government and the Taliban to immediately call a ceasefire. They have also called for undertaking practical steps for the exchange of prisoners to create trust. The international community must also coordinate its peace efforts with the government of Afghanistan. The resolution has also proposed formation of an inclusive negotiating team and reform in the Afghan High Peace Council.
In Ghazni, the Taliban have blown up one of the oldest shrines in the capital city; the shrine of Shams-ul-Arifin. The mausoleum was particularly popular as it housed the tomb of Sufi Abdul Wahid who had died in 601Hijri Lunar Year. This comes as the Taliban insurgents have devastated two more tombs in the Moqor district and another of Sakhi Sahib also located in Ghazni city. The militants have so far refrained from commenting in this regard.
Bangladesh and the US have agreed to strengthen cooperation on counter-terrorism at the 7th Bangladesh-US Security Dialogue held in Dhaka this week. In the dialogue, two sides reviewed security cooperation between the two countries and discussed a wide range of issues pertaining to security. The issues that found prominence in the dialogue include- peacekeeping with reference to Bangladesh’s role and involvement in building peacekeeping capacity. Military-to-military cooperation, security assistance, defence trade, counterterrorism, countering violent extremism, border and regional issues with reference to the ongoing Rohingya crisis, the vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific, human security and border issues. Michael F Miller, deputy assistant secretary of the Bureau of the Political-Military Affairs at the US State Department, led the US delegation and Ferdousi Shahriar, Director General Americas of the foreign ministry, led Bangladesh side.
A section of leaders of right wing political party Jamaat-e-Islam launched a new political initiative named Jana Aakangkhar Bangladesh. Chief of this new platform is Mojobur Rahman Monju, former head of Jamaat's student wing Ismail Chatra Shibir. The platform was the outcome of differences in Jamaat over issues- reforms in the party; on the question of apology to the nation for opposing 1971 Liberation War. Jamaat had opposed Bangladesh’s liberation and notorious for conspiring with the Pakistani occupational forces and torturing the freedom fighter during the liberation of the country. Senior Jamaat leaders are serving sentences for their crimes in the liberation war as Bangladesh is trying the perpetrators of 1971 War.
The first Bhutan-India development talks for the 12th Plan ended on 26 April with India’s commitment of Nu 49 billion in assistance (Nu 45B for development assistance and Nu 4B for trade support facility). Foreign Secretary, Sonam Tshong, led the Bhutanese delegation while Secretary (West), Ministry of External Affairs of India, A. Gitesh Sarma led the Indian delegation for the talks.
The Paro District Court sentenced five men to prison terms ranging from five years and one month to one year and 14 days for gold smuggling on April 30. They were convicted for smuggling 11.5 kilograms of gold from Bangkok in 2017. Sonam Tashi, a businessman and Dorji Phuntsho, an employee with Bhutan Broadcasting Service Corporation (BBSC) were arrested at Paro International Airport in August 2017.
Maoist insurgents, in apparent retaliation for the deaths of two of their senior women cadres at the hands of anti-naxal forces of the Indian government, exploded an IED in the Gadchiroli district of Maharashtra, killing 15 jawans and one civilian. This is not the first in a series of attacks meant to hamper the smooth functioning of the Lok Sabha elections, with the insurgents also burning vehicles designated for construction projects in the area a day before. This attack follows on the heels of as many as four other IED blasts in the district, injuring six commandos of the Gadchiroli police.
The Chief Justice of India, Ranjan Gogoi, appeared before the in-house committee headed by Justice S.A. Bobde, set up to examine the sexual harassment allegations which were levelled against him by a former Supreme Court employee. This move comes on the heels of the complainant rejecting the request to attend any further hearings which were taking place since 29 April, stating that the committee had declined to grant her request to have her layer present during the proceedings, stating in a press release that she walked out of the committee hearing on the 30 April stating the refusal to have her layer present as one of the many reasons for her refusal to attend any further hearings.
The strongest cyclone India has seen in two decades, named Fani, has made landfall in the state of Odisha, devastating large parts of the State’s coast line, with wind speeds clocking at a whopping 165 km. The state government evacuated people living in the path of the cyclone, with more than 1.3-lakh people being evacuated in Puri district and an additional three-lakh people in Ganjam district.
In what may be said to be the higher judiciary initiative to thwart Executive and Legislative counters, the Supreme Court has unveiled a five-year roadmap for judicial reform with proposals to ensure the independence of judges and improve oversight mechanisms. Launching the 20-point roadmap calls for amendments to laws relating to judiciary, upholding educational and ethical standards, and changing the composition of the Judicial Service Commission, Chief Justice Dr Ahmed Abdulla Didi said that it was his “wish and hope to see the successful implementation of the judicial reform roadmap and the judicial action reform plan”. The proposal includes a 10-member watchdog body with representation from all three branches of the state. As may be recalled, ahead of the 6 April parliamentary polls, Chief Justice Didi had criticised President Ibrahim Solih’s Maldivian Democratic Party’s plans to curtail the powers of the Supreme Court through Executive and Legislative measures. The MDP has since won a two-thirds majority in the 87-member Parliament, with political power to amend the Constitution in this and other matters.
Six months after President Ibrahim Solih came into office and a month after the crucial parliamentary polls, Foreign Minister Abdulla Shahid has embarked on the new regime’s first high-level personal visit to China. The visit assumes significance in the light of their MDP’s pre-poll declaration to look into Chinese investments under the predecessor regime of President Abdulla Yameen, and repay China debt, variously put at $ 1.5-3.5 b. MDP boss and former President Mohammed Nasheed had also reiterated the Government’s resolve to get at the bottom of Chinese investments in the country, to see if Yameen had diverted funds, and take appropriate action to recover those monies, if any. While Minister Shahid said that the timing was based on scheduling facilities, with the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan coming up, Finance Minister Ibrahim Ameer had earlier stated that the Government would re-negotiate interest rates on Chinese loans.
A delegation led by Mr. David Hale, the US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, met separately with the Speaker of the Rakhine State Hluttaw and members of the Muslim community in Sittway on 2 May. The Under Secretary first met with the Muslim community, led by U Shwe Hla, at the Maddaya Sa Eisalar Miya School in Aung Mingalar Ward, Sittway, and held a discussion with them. Next, they visited the Rakhine State Hluttaw and met with State Hluttaw Speaker U San Kyaw Hla and Deputy Speaker U Mya Than.
The National Electrification Project (NEP-IT) issued a press statement on 30 April which says the project borrowed 30 million euros from Italy in a soft loan agreement for electrification in rural areas. This loan will be used for an electrification project in Chin State and surrounding areas in western Myanmar. Current electricity consumption in Myanmar is at the lowest level in the world with only two thirds of the population connected to national power grid and 84% of rural areas still without access to electricity.
The vitality of Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) has been expressed by Pradeep Kumar Gyawali, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nepal, with regard to its dynamics with China. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been of utmost importance to Nepal. The role of Tibet comes in the operationalization of any Transit Agreement in new border entry point with China. Consequently, better TAR – Nepal is likely.
The 77th congregation of the executive committee and the 23rd general assembly of the SAARC Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SAARC CII) has begun in Kathmandu. Amidst failing effectiveness of the organization in South Asia, this occasion has come up as a fresh conducive beginning to help achieve regional integration. There is special importance attached to the private sector.
Whilst US officials have maintained that US will not interfere in Pakistan’s internal matters, they have also acknowledged that both the civilian and the military leaders of the country have taken correct steps and voiced necessary reforms to eliminate terrorism. However though Pakistan’s efforts are appreciable and in tune with the American ideas, US will continue to reserve judgment until some time has passed as Pakistan has been known to backtrack on initial good judgements in the past.
The Punjab Minister for Energy, Dr. Aziz Akbar inaugurated the solar wall at the Centre for Energy Research and Development in the University of Engineering and Technology, Kala Shah Kaku Campus. Pakistan’s industry is currently facing a severe energy crisis and this solar wall has the capacity of generating 410 kilowatt. Akbar further stated that in Pakistan the focus is now on utilising the renewable energy to strengthen the economy of the country to overcome this energy crisis.
The Easter blasts investigations seems to be turning curious what with Sri Lanka Army (SLA) chief, Lt-Gen Mahesh Senanayake declaring at a news conference that the terrorists had India links, and had visited Jammu & Kashmir, Kerala and Bengaluru, and had also trained there. Indian media reports have since responded, quoting officials in the national capital of New Delhi that they would look into it all, as and when they get official information and confirmation in the matter from Sri Lankan authorities.
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Afghanistan Times, “Consultative Loya Jirga”, 1 May 2019
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Aruna Kashyap, “Rights makeover overdue in Bangladesh garment industry”, The Daily Star, 1 May 2019
Mohammed Abdus Salam, “28 years since Operation Sea Angel: A model idisaster management”, The Daily Star, 30 April 2019
Shekh Farid, “Making the most of our demographic dividend”, The Daily Star, 28 April 2019
Kuensel, “Agriculture needs real investment”, 1 May 2019
Rajshree Chandra, “PepsiCo’s Attempt to Sue Farmers Highlights the Lacunae in IPR Laws”, The Indian Express, 2 May 2019
Harsh V Pant and Kabir Taneja, “ISIS’s New Target: South Asia”, Foreign Policy, 2 May 2019
Shahudha Mohamed, “With love from America to Maldives; Finding serenity in the isles”, The Edition, 1 May 2019
Aung Zaw, “With the Bear and the Dragon, Myanmar Military Plays Safe”, The Irrawaddy, 2 May 2019
Kyaw Phyo Tha, “Myitsone Dam Flashback”, The Irrawaddy, 29 April 2019
Sandip Neupane, “Banking the unbanked”, Republica, 2 May 2019
Amish Raj Mulmi, “Wasted opportunity in tourism”, The Kathmandu Post, 2 May 2019
The Himalayan Times, “Avoid royal show”, 3 May 2019
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Faisal Bari, “Higher education budget cuts”, Dawn, 3 May 2019
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Neville Ladduwahetty, “Return of terrorism due to failure of vigilance”, The Island, 3 May 2019
M S M Ayub, “Making of a deadly ideology”, Daily Mirror Online, 3 May 2019
N Sathiya Moorthy, “10 days after Sri Lanka’s blasts, questions remain”, Rediff.com, 1 May 2019
Hafil Farisz, “The veil and the ‘Arabanisation’ of Lankan Muslims”, Daily Mirror Online, 1 May 2019
N Sathiya Moorthy, “It’s as much a global ‘war of terror’ as ‘on terror’”, www.orfonline.org, 30 April 2019
Adm Jayanth Colombage, “Easter terrorism carnage and counter-terrorism in Sri Lanka”, The Island, 30 April 2019
Ranga Jayasuriya, “How Wahhabism was fostered until it’s too late”, Daily Mirror Online, 30 April 2019
N Sathiya Moorthy, “The veil is off, yes, but...”, Colombo Gazette, 30 April 2019
Jehan Perera, “Sophisticated response to terror attacks needed”, The Island, 30 April 2019
Malinda Seneviratne, “When a government becomes a security threat”, The Island, 30 April 2019
N Sathiya Moorthy, “Politics after Easter attacks”, Ceylon Today, 30 April 2019
Afghanistan & Pakistan: Sohini Bose
Bangladesh: Joyeeta Bhattacharjee
Bhutan: Mihir Bhonsale
India: Ameya Kelkar
Maldives & Sri Lanka: N Sathiya Moorthy
Myanmar: Sreeparna Banerjee
Nepal: Sohini Nayak
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