MonitorsPublished on Oct 16, 2018
South Asia Weekly Report | Vol. XI Issue 42

Analysis

Bangladesh: Shadow of Pakistan in 21 August grenade-attack

Joyeeta Bhattacharjee The verdict in the case of the grenade-attack on Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on 21 August 2004 has been delivered. The court has handed down death penalty to 19 persons while another 19 have been sentenced to life imprisonment.  Among the convicts, there are many influential people like Tarique Rahman, Opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) vice-chairman and son of former Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia. Rahman is among those who were sentenced to life imprisonment. The verdict is considered to be a landmark and it highlights on certain aspects of militancy in Bangladesh. These include the nexus between the governing party and militant organisations like the Harkat-ul Jihad Bangladesh (Huji-B) during 2001-06. The judgment had proved the links between militant organisations in the country and those in Pakistan. On 21 August 2004, Huji-B militants attacked a public rally of Sheikh Hasina, who was then the Leader of the Opposition and the president of the Awami League. The attack was targeted at Shiekh Hasina, but she had a narrow escape. However, around 20 of her party leaders and workers died in the blast and many were injured.

Sourced in Pakistan

Initially, the attack was perceived to be a militant activity. The investigation, however, showed that it was carried out in connivance with the BNP government (2001-06). Tarique Rahman, few ministers and some senior officials of security agencies were involved in the conspiracy along with the Huji outfit. Significantly, the investigations showed that the grenades were sourced from Pakistan, adding a Pakistani angle. The nation’s popular English daily, The Daily Star, in a report on 11 October, claimed that the grenade was transported from Pakistan to Bangladesh via sea. The investigations showed that Maulana Tajuddin, the brother of former BNP Deputy Minister Abdus Salam, who was the mastermind behind the attack, had close links with Pakistan. Tajuddin was believed to have sourced the grenade from Pakistan-based militant organization Hijbul Mujahideen. The Bangla Tribune, on 9 October, claimed that the Hijbul Mujahideen along with Huji-B had planned and executed the attack. Links between Bangladeshi militant organisations and Pakistani groups are well known. Huji-B, formed by veterans of ‘Afghan jihad’ in 1992, was known for its links with Pakistani organisations, which were using Bangladesh as a transit-point to undertake terror activities in India, an issue often raised by New Delhi with Dhaka. Bangladesh, however, declined to accept India’s claim for a long time. Dhaka’s stance was that its militant organisations were home-grown and they did not have any external linkages.  In 2009, Bangladesh changed its stance after Shiekh Hasina came to power and began taking pro-active measures in countering terror, both domestically and across the border. The 21 August terror-attack suggested that the existence of Pakistan-based militant organisations not only hampered security of India but also disturbed the stability of Bangladesh. Militancy in Bangladesh had increased substantially in the period 2001-06. The involvement of a Pakistani militant organisation in the attack on Shiekh Hasina was not only a political plank but also an attack on the ideology of secular Bangladesh, an idea on which Bangladesh fought its liberation from Pakistan in 1971.
The writer is a Senior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi

Afghanistan: Major setbacks to parliamentary polls

Sohini Bose The Afghanistan parliamentary elections, which were originally scheduled to be held on 15 October 2016, but postponed to 7 July this year, are now due to be held on 20 October. However, it remains to be seen if they would be held or, would be re-scheduled for a third time. The delays and re-scheduling had to do as much with the electoral processes as with the prevailing ground situation, with the result a number of concerns  have been plaguing the implementation of the initiative. The agenda to elect members to the House of the People through a single non-transferrable vote system (SNTV) faced substantial delays due to the need for reforming the country’s electoral laws. In turn, this owed to the last post-poll power-sharing deal between President Muhammad Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah. While both agreed to delay the current elections until the overhauling of the process was completed, they, however, disagreed on the extent of reforms desired. While Ghani called for limited reforms, Abdullah believed in a complete renovation of the system.

Issues and concerns

Consequently, an Electoral Reforms Commission was set up and it proposed the allotment of 83 seats of Parliament’s total of 250 seats to political parties, in accordance with the national electoral results. This was much in conformity with what Abdullah had envisioned. Ghani’s supporters, on the other hand, felt that this system discriminated unfairly in favour of large national parties when focussing on smaller and more local constituencies could have fostered closer ties between the parliamentarians and the electorate. Ultimately, Shah Sultan Akefi, the head of the Commission, decided to stand by the Commission’s proposal as it was very important for building national political parties. Another problem which plagued the Afghan elections was voter registration. As there had already been three main registrations since 2001, almost 20 million election cards had been distributed. But the current registered number of voters is close to only 8.8 million. This excess cards in circulation thus poses a threat of potential fraud. Despite such setbacks and apprehensions, the election campaign began on 28 September. The initial results are expected to be revealed on 10 November and the final outcome will be made public, exactly two months after the election -- that is on 20 December 2018. Countrywide, there are supposed to be 7,366 polling centres. However, according to the reports of the Afghan Ministry of Interior, only 5,100 polling centres will be open on the day of the election because of security reasons. The elections will also be observed by domestic and international observers, candidates’ and political parties’ agents, as well as the media. The Ministry of Interior reported that 54,776 members of the Afghan National Security Forces have been assigned for the security of 5,100 polling centres for five days ahead of the elections. Some forces will also be kept in reserve. The voting system is based on a 35 multi-seat constituencies which are identical to the provinces. The present election will take place in 33 of the country’s 34 provinces plus one constituency allotted to the nomads. The number of seats allocated to each constituency depends on the size of population.  The exact number of candidates is unclear. However an approximate calculation done by the Afghanistan Analysts Network identified 2,532 candidates on the ballot papers from the provincial lists on the Independent Election Commission website.

Problem areas

However, even as the elections are set to be executed in this war-torn country, more problems are surfacing, in the process making it difficult for the elections to be held peacefully. The primary problem is the threat by the Taliban. In April this year, the Taliban had announced its opposition to the elections and called for a boycott. Attempts were made to plead with them to not interrupt the elections. But this proved to be fruitless as on 8 October Taliban published another statement repeating their boycott call and urged candidates to withdraw their participation, as the elections were being conducted for the sole purpose reducing the resentment against foreign occupation. Stemming from the issue of the Taliban is the problem of Ghazni. The UN declared Ghazni to be one of the six most violent provinces in Afghanistan between February and May this year. Moreover, ethnic conflicts in this province has plunged the electoral politics further into troubled waters. Protests flared up in front of the Independent Election Commission (IEC) Office of Ghazni against the SNTV system with the demand to divide Ghazni into 11 electoral constituencies, corresponding with the 11 seats the province has been allocated in parliament. This would result in single-member constituencies and break with the multi-member constituencies under the prevalent electoral system. Subsequently the IEC consented partially and decided to split the province into three electoral constituencies according to the demands of the protestors. But this gave way to new problems regarding which areas would be allocated to the new constituencies. In all possibility, such an action could result in lopsided participation of the districts. Still, others claimed such a split to be illegal. Subsequently, it was decided in late September that elections would not take place in Ghazni. But after the continuing protests and more deliberations, the IEC announced on 1 October that the postponed Ghazni parliamentary elections will be held on 20 October. However, later reports say that preparations are being made for elections in 33 of the 34 provinces which affirms the status of Ghazni’s exclusion from the elections. The situation in Ghazni is an issue of ethnic representation, which stems from the persistent insecurity felt in most of the Pashtun-dominated districts. However, the protesters of Ghazni seek to keep terms of ethnic rivalry away from their slogans and hold the Afghan government responsible for depriving them of their rights. The analysis of the above problems shows that a number of factors are responsible in hampering the country’s progress towards peace. However, if the latter is to be achieved through democratic means, the entire population along with the government will have to be involved in its realisation.
The writer is a Research Assistant at Observer Research Foundation

Country Reports

Afghanistan

Meeting with law-makers

Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani recently met a delegation of US lawmakers led by the US House Speaker Paul Ryan. Both sides discussed the prospects for improving bilateral cooperation, fight against terrorism, regional issues, positive impacts of the US strategy on South Asia, reforms in the defence sectors, preparation for the upcoming parliamentary elections and the peace process being led by the Afghan government. Ghani also brought up discussions on efforts to bring reforms in the civil sector.

More join peace process

According to the reports of local officials, seventy five Taliban militants inclusive of their commanders have joined the Afghan peace process in the relatively volatile province of Nangarhar, Afghanistan. They have reconciled with the government owing to the efforts of the Afghan Intelligence Directorate. They have also handed over their weapons which include seventy-five different types of heavy and light arms to the government which will from now on be used for security of the Bali Kot district.

Bangladesh

Death for 19 in terror-attack

A court this week sentenced Tarique Rahman, vice-chairperson of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, and 18 others to life imprisonment for their involvement in the grenade attack case. Another 19 have been given death sentence in the same case. Tarique was convicted for conspiring attack on Sheikh Hasina, who was the opposition leader in 2004.  Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had a narrow escape while 20 Awami League leaders and activists were killed as militants attacked her rally on 21 August 2004.

No worries on Assam NRC

Indian Minister of State for External Affairs General VK Singh (Retd) has said that Bangladesh does not have to fear about Assam's National Register of Citizens (NRC). The Minister further added that India will not do anything that is harmful to its neighbour Bangladesh. The Minister made this remarks during an interaction with a delegation of Bangladeshi journalists who visited India earlier in the week. NRC in Assam is carried out in the supervision of the Supreme Court of India with the  aim of identifying illegal immigrants residing in the State. A draft of the NRC was published on 30 July, leaving out around 40.7 lakh people.  The issue is a point of concern for Bangladesh as the illegal migrants in the State are often claimed to be from Bangladesh.

Coastal shipping with SL

Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have decided to sign a bilateral coastal shipping agreement. The agreement is likely to reduce transhipment cost and the time required to travel between Chittagong and Colombo. After the agreement is signed, Colombo port is likely to become a major transit hub for Bangladesh’s maritime trade links.   It is worthy to note that the agreement will allow third-party access for Sri Lankan vessels to East Indian ports. The agreement is in line with the BIMSTEC coastal shipping agreement. The agreement will play an important role in strengthening maritime connectivity in the Bay of Bengal region.

Bhutan

Youth trapped in Ponzi scheme

More than 600 Bhutanese youth are allegedly trapped in a Ponzi scheme in Siliguri of West Bengal State in India. The youth are mainly from poor and disadvantaged background. The company named Arch Trademark Pvt Ltd. falsely claimed that it has been registered as an agent under the Ministry of Labour and Human Resources of Bhutan. The youth had been lured into the prospect of accepting a job offer by promising guaranteed employment with a minimum salary of Nu 20,000.

EC suspends campaign

The Election Commission of Bhutan’s (ECB) had ordered Druk Phuensum Tshogpa’s (DPT) Khar-Yurung candidate, Tshering Choden, to discontinue her campaign since 10 October. The candidate was also issued a warning and slapped a fine worth the minimum wage for 60 days for allegedly interfering in the electoral process by asking votes to cast their votes in favour of a particular party during a public debate on 5 October.

Helpline launched

The National Commission for Women and Children (NCWC) officially launched a toll-free Woman and Child Helpline 1098 to strengthen care and protection services for women and children, and other vulnerable groups coinciding with the International Day of Girl Child on 10 October. The helpline will be attending to calls 24×7 from women, children and men who are in need of protection and care.

India

US threatens sanctions

US President Donald Trump recently stated, while speaking with the White House press correspondents, that they will soon let India know about the decision on whether the US administration will impose the ‘Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act’ or not. This pending decision is in relation to the estimated $5 billion dollar deal India signed with Russia for the S-400 Triumf Air Defence Systems.

China Looks to India

The two neighbouring nations are looking to build sustainable environments for their growing economies amidst the growing trend of protectionism. The Chinese Embassy to India came out with a statement expressing that it is important for the two largest emerging economies who are “in the vital stage of deepening reform and developing economy”.

Climate hits economy  

A UN report has come out which claims that India has suffered a whopping $79.5 billion economic loss due to climate-related disasters in the last 20 years, after data was compiled from 1998-2017. The economies of US, China, Japan, India and Puerto Rico have been the worst affected. The report is titled 'Economic Losses, Poverty and Disasters 1998-2017' and has been compiled by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.

Maldives

Yameen’s moves SC

In an after-thought of a move after conceding defeat in the presidential polls of 23 September, incumbent Abdulla Yameen has since moved the Supreme Court, challenging the election of MDP-JO rival, Ibrahim Mohamed ‘Ibu’ Solih, to take his place. The SC admitted Yameen’s plea, which claimed poll-rigging in association with the nation’s Election Commission (EC). However, the five-judge Bench also allowed the Opposition parties’ pleas to be enjoined in the case, based on their petitions, and also issued notice to the EC. Minus the judicial challenge, Yameen was to have handed over charge to Ibu Solih on 17 November.

Myanmar

¥6.03-b aid from Japan

Japan has agreed to give Myanmar a ¥6.03 billion (K83.79 billion/US$53 million) grant to help economy modernise Mandalay’s commercial port. Under the grant agreement with the Japan International Cooperation Agency, Myanmar plans to build berthing facilities and mechanise cargo handling at the river port in Mandalay, the country’s second-largest city, as part of efforts to develop the northern economic zone. The port on the Ayeyarwady River plays a key role in carrying passengers and cargo like rice, lumber and construction materials between Mandalay and Yangon, the country’s largest city.

Business summit

Myanmar is making preparations to hold a business forum in Mandalay, the country's second largest city in the north, on 9 November, aiming to promote trade and investment for the development of Mandalay region. The forum will showcase business opportunities in the region, familiarize new business law and regulations and the investment environment of Mandalay region and widen network between foreign investors and local business community. High level speakers, officials from the government side and the leading personnel from the private sector will speak on the occasion.

Five returnees from Bangladesh

The family of five "displaced people" came back to Rakhine state on 10 October morning. The Bangladesh government's Rohingya camp commissioner Mohammad Abul Kalam said he had only heard about the family leaving but has not received official confirmation of their return to Myanmar. Myanmar and Bangladesh had signed a deal to bring back the Rohingya but many fear to return without guaranteed rights such as citizenship, access to health care and freedom of movement. Authorities in Myanmar say more than 100 displaced Rohingya have returned in recent months though rights groups have questioned whether the returnees did so voluntarily.

Nepal

Army ‘on guard’

Purna Chandra Thapa, the Chief of the Army Staff, has spoken on the widespread actions of the Nepal Army, on keeping checks on the separatist and anti-constitutional elements in the country. Newly recruited, Thapa has been clear on his stance on upholding the rules and procedures as per law, along with transparency.

NRNA ‘pledges’ development

The Non-Resident Nepali Association (NRNA) has organized the ‘First Global Knowledge Convention’ in the capital. Inaugurated by Prime Minister Oli, the congregation aims at creating a knowledge pool that would help attract better investment opportunities. Several themes were covered including capacity building, investment, knowledge transfer and development of the private sector.

Pakistan

IMF moved for aid

Pakistan has requested financial support to address the country’s economic challenges from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during a meeting with IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde in Bali, Indonesia.  An IMF delegation is scheduled to visit Islamabad in the coming weeks to initiate discussions for this economic programme. This will be the country’s 13th loan from IMF since 1988 when the era of structural adjustments had begun. In future the Fund looks to continuing partnership with Pakistan.

Sri Lanka

Fresh hopes on PC polls?

With Provincial Council polls already behind schedule in some of the nine provinces with more falling vacant in the coming weeks, representatives of political parties, in a meeting with the Election Commission officials, have promised to revert with their respective positions by 31 October. The polls became due after the government got Parliament to pass a new de-limitation law, and followed it up with a committee under Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, for the purpose. With the delimitation work getting complicated and time-consuming, the current proposal is for Parliament to pass an omnibus law, reverting to the existing de-limitation positions, and have polls, as early as January 2019. The SLPP-JO of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa has charged the Government parties with divining the delimitation process only to delay the PC polls, in the aftermath the latter’s across-the-board defeat in the nation-wide local government polls in February.

Bibliography

Afghanistan

Opinion Pieces

Hujjatullah Zia, “Afghanistan’s Role in the Belt and Road Initiative (Part 1)”, Daily Outlook Afghanistan, 11 October 2018 Fahim Abed, Fatima Faizi and Mujib Mashal, “17 Years to the Day the U.S. Invaded, 54 Are Killed Across Afghanistan”, The New York Times, 7 October 2018 Andrew Quilty, “The Last Americans Fighting in Afghanistan”, The New York Times, 5 October 2018

Editorials

Afghanistan Times,” Alarming violence”, 10 October 2018 Daily Outlook Afghanistan, “Afghanistan: Increasing Women Political Representation as a National Priority”, 9 October 2018 Afghanistan Times, “Conquest of conflict”, 9 October 2018

Bangladesh

Opinion Pieces

Rashidul Hasan, “Grenades came from Pakistan”, The Daily Star, 11 October 2018 Dipu Sarwar, “‘Aug 21 grenade attack was planned in Pakistan’, Bangla Tribune, 9 October 2018 Syed Mansur Hashim, “Greening' the RMG sector”, The Daily Star, 9 October 2018 Tariq Karim, “Reviving the Bengal Presidency template of connectivity”, The Daily Star, 8 October 2018

Bhutan

Editorials

Kunesel,Going beyond the limits”, 11 October 2018 Kunesel,What the nation doesn’t want”, 10 October 2018

India

Opinion Pieces

Abhijit Singh, “Teaming up with Tokyo”,  The Hindu, 11 October 2018 Archanaa Seker, “Decoding the #metoo movement”, The New Indian Express, 10 October 2018 Afroz Alam, Yogesh Pratap Singh, “SC Had a Chance to Decriminalise Indian Politics, But Failed to Grab It”, The Wire, 4 October 2018

Maldives

Opinion Pieces

N Sathiya Moorthy, “Maldives: Smooth transition likely, multiple issues seek Ibu’s attention”, www.orfonline.org, 10 October 2018 Nafaahath Ibrahim, “Young minds of the future, hanging in balance”, The Edition, 10 October 2018 P K Balachandran, “Maldivian elections: Between rock and hard place”, Daily Mirror Online, Colombo, 9 October 2018

Myanmar

Opinion Pieces

Bo Kyi, “The Need for Stress Management in Myanmar”, The Irrawaddy, 9 October 2018

Nepal

Opinion Pieces

Ram C. Acharya, “Pathway to prosperity”, Republica, 10 October 2018 Chandra D. Bhatta, “The power of parties”, The Kathmandu Post, 12 October 2018 Biswas Dhakal, “Digital 2020 The Kathmandu Post, 11 October 2018

Editorials

The Himalayan Times, “Righting the wrong”, 4 October 2018 The Kathmandu Post, “What a sham(e)”, 11 October 2018

Pakistan

Opinion Pieces

Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, “How big should the cabinet be?”, Dawn, 12 October 2018 Zamir Ghumro, “Chaos of power struggle among state organs”, The Express Tribune, 12 October 2018 Obed Suhai, “Plastic pollution”, Dawn, 12 October 2018

Editorials

Pakistan Today, “After DPO Gondal, another short shrift for IGP Punjab”, 10 October 2018 Pakistan Today, “The accountability drive”, 10 October 2018 Pakistan Today, “Hazards of neglecting the home work”, 10 October 2018

Sri Lanka

Opinion Pieces

Rajan Philips, “Checkmate Politics II”, The Island, 14 October 2018 D B S Jeyaraj, “Can Maithripala Sirisena and Mahinda Rajapaksa re-unite politically?”, Daily Mirror Online, 13 October 2018 M S M Aybu, “Caretaker government: Who is fooling whom?”, Daily Mirror Online, 12 October 2018 Kusal Perera, “Coming out of this fools’ paradise”, Daily Mirror Online, 12 October 2018 Kelum Bandara, “MS-MR meeting creates rumblings within UNP”, Daily Mirror Online, 11 October 2018 N Sathiya Moorthy, “There is more of China in Lanka!”, Ceylon Today, 9 October 2018 Jehan Perera, “Returning land to civilians”, The Island, 9 October 2018 N Sathiya Moorthy, “A lone Tigress?”, Colombo Gazette, 8 October 2018 N Sathiya Moorthy, “A nutty call, this!”, Colombo Gazette, 8 October 2018

Interviews

Kelum Bandara, “Indo-Lanka Accord has out-lived its utility: Subramanian Swami”, Daily Mirror Online, 11 October 2018 Kelum Bandara, “Current exchange rate gives real value of LKR: Malik Samarawickrama”, Daily Mirror Online, 9 October 2018

Contributors

Afghanistan & Pakistan: Sohini Bose Bangladesh: Joyeeta Bhattacharjee Bhutan: Mihir Bhonsale India: Ketan Mehta and T.N. Suhas  Maldives & Sri Lanka: N Sathiya Moorthy Myanmar: Sreeparna Banerjee Nepal: Sohini Nayak
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