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Soumya Awasthi, “Pakistan and China’s Collusive Grey-Zone Warfare,” ORF Issue Brief No. 820, Observer Research Foundation, August 2025.
In a constantly evolving landscape of international conflict, certain tactics are replacing or, in some cases, supplementing conventional wars and kinetic engagements—these comprise what is often referred to as Grey-Zone Warfare (GZW). This brief uses the term ‘grey-zone warfare’ to refer to the space between peace and open war where states pursue strategic objectives through ambiguous and deniable means, deliberately avoiding thresholds that could provoke conventional military responses. It operates in the ‘twilight space’, employing strategies such as cyberattacks, economic coercion, disinformation campaigns, and lawfare to achieve objectives without triggering a full-scale military response.[1] These tactics allow states to operate ambiguously, leveraging non-military tools to exert influence, destabilise adversaries, and reshape geopolitical realities. These strategies often span cyber intrusions, disinformation campaigns, economic coercion, proxy militancy, and the weaponisation of migration, trade, or lawfare.
The concept of ‘grey zone’ has roots in Indian strategic philosophy, particularly in the Arthashastra, Kautilya’s 4th-century BCE treatise on statecraft, which articulates a form of warfare known as ‘Tushnim Yuddha’, meaning ‘silent war’. Unlike traditional warfare (Prakash Yuddha), Tushnim Yuddha is carried out subtly through espionage, deception, economic sabotage, and misinformation. Kautilya encouraged such tactics as practical tools to weaken a nation’s enemies without engaging in direct conflict.[2]
Understanding grey-zone warfare through this lens helps India contextualise contemporary threats and formulate strategic and diplomatic responses that balance restraint with covert deterrence, and resilience with calibrated offensives. This brief will discuss the growing significance of grey-zone warfare across key domains, including defence, economy, public opinion, and digital infrastructure, with a particular focus on the collusion of Pakistan and China against Indian security infrastructure. It undertakes a critical assessment of India’s existing strategies in managing this evolving threat and identifies gaps. The brief offers policy recommendations to bolster India’s approach to countering the rising challenge of grey-zone warfare, leveraging technological advancements in the cyber, space, electronics, and information fields that reflect both national will and international legitimacy.
In the post-Cold War era, geopolitical conflicts have moved from the battlefield to the sub-threshold domain—an ambiguous space between peace and war. Many modern states are showing a preference for grey-zone warfare, not due to a lack of military strength, but for the broader utility it offers across strategic dimensions. Its success depends on the fact that it exploits the moral and legal frameworks that democratic countries like India desire to uphold, and takes advantage of their flaws while escalating. For states like Pakistan and China, grey-zone warfare is a doctrine calibrated to attain strategic goals without prompting consequences.
Grey-zone warfare is characterised by the following:
The most attractive feature of grey-zone warfare is conceivable deniability.[3] States can initiate cyberattacks, support proxies, conduct disinformation campaigns, or use economic coercion, and subsequently deny accountability. This defuses potential retaliation by the victim state.
Pakistan’s funding and support of groups like The Resistance Front (TRF) and Kashmir Tigers in Kashmir, or Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, to inflict damage to India while disengaging itself from direct connection, is a pertinent example.[4] Similarly, Chinese cyber operations and support for regional information manipulation often go untraceable, keeping Beijing diplomatically shielded from any retaliation.[5] Deniability enables states to achieve their geopolitical objectives without crossing red-lines or drawing international scrutiny.
Kinetic wars are economically overwhelming, particularly for states with weak conventional capabilities. Grey-zone tactics do not require significant investments.[6] Cyber tools, for instance, will cost less compared to missile strikes, but they can compromise critical infrastructure. For example, the low-cost drones used by Pakistan for transporting weapons into Punjab and Kashmir validate how even rudimentary technologies can deliver a strategic impact.[7] Additionally, China’s use of fishing militias or paramilitary units in the South China Sea enables it to assert its maritime claims without deploying its navy, thereby avoiding escalation.[8]
Grey-zone operations often exploit opacities in legal instruments and international norms, making retaliation or sanctions more diplomatically complex. Cyber invasions and disinformation campaigns are difficult to attribute convincingly, and most international laws lag behind these technological and informational tactics.[9]
Propaganda and narrative control, particularly through information warfare and social media management, enable actors to represent themselves as victims or legitimate stakeholders. A disinformation drive that seeks to destabilise India’s Kashmir policy, for example, may be masked under the guise of ‘human rights advocacy’, obscuring India's response in international forums.[10]
Grey-zone means are also intended to erode self-esteem, legality, and peace within the target country. By using internal divisions—ethnic, religious, or ideological—an adversary can cause fragmentation in a society and delegitimise its government without committing an act of violence.[11] This is relevant in India’s diverse socio-political fabric, where adversaries have often sought to exploit internal fault lines by disseminating misinformation and fake news, and selectively amplifying dissent.[12]
India and Pakistan share one of the most volatile borders in the world. Conventional wars have largely given way to covert, ambiguous, and sub-conventional conflicts. Grey-zone warfare in the India–Pakistan conflict is not sporadic but structural. Pakistan’s hybrid strategy is a combination of kinetic and non-kinetic pressure, challenging India’s conventional prowess. Pakistan, in particular, has mastered the art of utilising non-state actors, disinformation, asymmetric warfare, and low-cost technologies to undermine Indian security without invoking full-scale war.
The following are some of the tactics used by adversaries in the GZW:
This convergence of Pakistan's intent and China's tech support typifies grey-zone collusion.
The strategic partnership between China and Pakistan has evolved from traditional military and diplomatic support into a full-spectrum collusive grey-zone threat to India, one that deliberately operates below the threshold of open warfare while achieving strategic disruption. This partnership has aged beyond traditional military ties into a multi-domain collusion that encourages ambiguity, deniability, and layered coercion.[19]
Both China and Pakistan are attempting to reshape the subcontinental security environment with incremental coercion intended to exhaust, distract, and destabilise India. The two countries are not limited to high-profile infrastructure projects like the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC); their cooperation now covers intelligence sharing, cyber warfare, disinformation campaigns, dual-use space and surveillance technologies, and coordinated diplomatic posturing.[20]
While Pakistan is a regional peace disruptor, China is a technological and financial enabler, together creating a synchronised twin-threat matrix which restrains its actions just before the possibility of the conventional war threshold. The expanding strategic partnership between the two is escalating GZW against India, leveraging cyber warfare, digital influence operations, and coordinated disinformation campaigns to destabilise Indian democracy and security.[21] It also aims to have a psychological influence on ordinary citizens as well as soldiers in the armed forces through the content generated by their propaganda machinery, such as the Inter-Service Public Relations (ISPR).[22]
This collusive framework fuses shared intelligence, synchronised cyber intrusions, electromagnetic disruptions, and AI-driven disinformation, forcing India into a reactive stance while stretching its defensive capabilities. The 2024 breaches of India’s power grids and banking networks exemplify this strategy, where China-backed cyber units and Pakistan-based intelligence networks exploit digital vulnerabilities to undermine critical infrastructure.[23]
Beyond cyber warfare, AI-powered deepfake technology, social media manipulation, and propaganda websites are being deployed to twist narratives on India's elections, economic policies, and military capabilities.[24] These efforts sway global perceptions, fuel internal divisions, and weaken public trust in the country’s institutions. Additionally, China's control over Pakistan’s digital infrastructure, including satellite communication (PAKSAT-MM1 and MM2) and fibre-optic networks along the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC),[25] further embeds Chinese surveillance and cyber dominance in the region.[26]
Table 1. Capability Comparison Between India-China-Pakistan
| Capabilities | India | Pakistan | China |
| Cyber Warfare | CERT-in, NTRO, Limited Offensive Cyber Ops | Mid-Level Cyber Capabilities, APT 36 | Advanced, APT 41 APTA Unit 61398 |
| Space/Satellite Ops | Satellites For ISR, Recent ASAT Test | Support from China | Extensive Military Space Capabilities |
| Information Warfare | PsyOps, Media Outreach | Disinformation networks, Trolling, Hashtagging | Coordinated disinformation and Social Media weaponisation |
| Proxy/Militant Groups | Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad | PLA Affiliates | |
| Drones/UAVs | Attack and Surveillance Drones | Armed drones and Cross-border infiltration | Chinese-origin drone swarms |
Source: Author’s own
This coordinated hybrid warfare strategy marks a long-term strategic shift where state actors increasingly rely on multi-domain assaults—encompassing cyber offensives, disinformation campaigns, and electronic warfare—to achieve their geopolitical objectives. Some of the examples are:
Table 2: Disinformation and Misinformation Propaganda Against India (2024)
| Country | Fake News Articles | Deepfake Videos | Misinformation Ads | Main Themes |
| China | 12,000 | 3,500 | 2,500 | Economic Instability, Border Disputes, Political Unrest |
| Pakistan | 8,000 | 5,000 | 4,000 | Kashmir Conflict, Military Disinformation, Religious Polarisation |
Source: Information Campaign[41]
India’s engagement with grey-zone warfare has evolved from traditional restraint to an active pursuit of non-kinetic and asymmetric capabilities. Historically grounded in conventional doctrines shaped by wars, India now recognises the need for cyber deterrence, information dominance, and covert influence. Although the transformation is ongoing, India is steadily developing a multi-domain grey zone posture designed to address modern security threats.
Institutions such as the Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-In), the National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO), and the Defence Cyber Agency (DCyA) are responsible for national response, surveillance, and military cyber operations, respectively. India’s space assets now support both military and scientific goals. Electronic warfare (EW) capabilities are growing, although they are still relatively nascent compared to those of India’s rivals.[53]
In information and influence operations, India is developing its ability to shape narratives and counter disinformation. Recognising the increasing threat of disinformation and propaganda, India introduced the Information Technology (Intermediary Guidelines and Digital Media Ethics Code) Rules, 2021, to regulate social media platforms and digital content.[54] India also partners with fact-checking organisations to combat misinformation targeting political stability, elections, and economic narratives. The armed forces' ADGPI (Additional Directorate General of Public Information) has established specialised information warfare units dedicated to countering psychological operations, counter-propaganda, and strategic communication, ensuring a proactive defence against adversarial information manipulation.
Doctrinal ambiguity also weakens India’s deterrence. The Land Warfare Doctrine (LWD-2018) incorporated cyber and electronic warfare (EW) into military operations, emphasising both offensive and defensive capabilities to protect critical infrastructure and enhance operational security.[55] The Joint Doctrine for Cyberspace Operations (JDCO-2024) marked a shift from reactive to proactive cyber strategies, focusing on threat anticipation, mitigation, and inter-agency collaboration to fortify India’s cyber resilience.[56] Meanwhile, the Kelkar Committee Report highlighted the need for advanced electronic warfare (EW) capabilities,[57] particularly in countering guided missile threats and surveillance systems, underscoring the increasing role of electronic warfare in national defence.
Offensive cyber capacity is another shortfall. India's cyber posture is mainly reactive with limited transparency. Unlike China’s cyber militias or Pakistan’s APT36, India lacks a unified cyber warfare strategy. The DCyA is constrained by staffing and legal ambiguities, and there is no doctrine integrating cyber with military planning. The National Cyber Security Policy (NCSP-2013) was India’s first comprehensive effort to build a secure and resilient cyber ecosystem, advocating for the training of 500,000 cybersecurity professionals.[58] However, with the rise of AI-driven cyber threats and quantum computing risks, the policy is now outdated and in need of revision.
India’s critical infrastructure remains vulnerable. Border surveillance is patchy, with inadequate detection and jamming tools for drones. India also trails China in space surveillance and counter-space tech.[59] On the narrative front, India struggles to match adversaries in psychological ops. Its digital influence campaigns lack linguistic and cultural depth, while official media is too formal to counter slick adversary narratives. Weak enforcement against disinformation leaves India exposed in the cognitive domain.
Indeed, India’s grey zone preparedness remains fragmented and reactive. Grey-zone conflict demands speed, flexibility, and cohesion—traits hindered by India’s legacy-bound strategic culture and slow institutional reform. The lack of a unified command or doctrine for grey zone operations limits synergy. Tri-service reforms are ongoing, but India lacks an integrated force akin to China’s SSF or Pakistan’s ISI-led hybrid units.[60]
In summary, without improved integration, effective offensive planning, and doctrinal clarity, India risks remaining reactive while adversaries exploit ambiguity and asymmetry to erode its security.
India needs to adopt a multi-domain counter-grey-zone approach, especially in the context of collusive tactics employed by China and Pakistan. India’s grey zone resilience depends on transitioning from a reactive posture to a proactive strategic stance. By institutionalising reforms, strengthening technological capabilities, and leading normative frameworks, India can raise the cost of grey zone aggression and reinforce its strategic autonomy.
Figure 1. Short-term and Long-term Goals for India to Counter Collusive Threat

Source: Author’s own
India’s security landscape is undergoing a tectonic shift, shaped not by conventional wars, but by unrelenting grey-zone conflict—a space defined by ambiguity, deniability, and sub-threshold aggression. From the ideological anchoring in Kautilya’s Tushnim Yuddha, India’s recognition of silent warfare is deeply rooted, yet its operational manifestation in the modern strategic realm is still evolving.
Pakistan’s persistent proxy warfare and China’s high-tech enablers form a collusive hybrid threat that aims to exploit India’s openness, democratic systems, and ethnic diversity. The grey zone is their battlefield—leveraging terror, cyber, drones, propaganda, and covert operations—all designed to keep India in a state of strategic distraction and attrition.
However, with its growing investments in cyber defence, electronic warfare, space technologies, and covert intelligence, India is laying the foundation of a credible deterrence posture. Though mere capability is not enough, India must develop a coherent grey zone doctrine, institutional integration, and pre-emptive strategic culture to respond with agility and strength.
Ultimately, India’s success in this domain hinges on transforming from a reactive power to a shaper of the grey zone environment—one that imposes costs on adversaries, secures national interests below the war threshold, and leads the global conversation on sub-conventional conflict norms. Grey-zone warfare may be fought in silence, but India’s response must be clear, calculated, and resolute.
[a] The Balakot airstrike was carried out in 2016 by Indian warplanes against the alleged terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), inside Balakot, Pakistan. A surgical strike was carried out by the Indian Army in 2019 in PoK to destroy the terrorist launchpad inside PoK, in response to a terrorist attack on the army base camp in Uri, J&K.
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[58] “The National Cyber Security Policy of India 2013,” Chase Academy, August 13, 2024, https://chaseacademy.in/the-national-cyber-security-policy-of-india-2013-ncsp-2013/#:~:text=2013%20(NCSP%202013)-,The%20National%20Cyber%20Security%20Policy%20of%20India%202013%20(NCSP%202013,regulations%2C%20and%20strengthening%20enforcement%20mechanisms.
[59] Indrajaal, “Why your Border Security Strategy is Incomplete without Drone Defence,” Redefining Drone Infrastructure, August 6, 2024, https://indrajaal.in/insights/why-your-border-security-strategy-is-incomplete-without-drone-defence/#:~:text=Traditional%20methods%20of%20border%20security,countermeasure%2C%20can%20disrupt%20essential%20communications.
[60] A K Dhingra, “Special Operations- A Capability Roadmap for India,” Synergy, August 2021, https://cenjows.in/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/13-Maj-Gen-AK-Dhingra.pdf
[61] Congressional Research Service, “Defence Primer: Electronic Warfare,” November 14, 2022, https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11118
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Dr Soumya Awasthi is Fellow, Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology at the Observer Research Foundation. Her work focuses on the intersection of technology and national ...
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