Since Donald Trump’s first term, one of Europe’s central objectives has been to demonstrate to the American President that they’re willing to meet their spending commitments and shoulder greater responsibility for Europe’s continental security. To give credit where credit is due, Europe’s NATO members have stepped up to the plate under immense dual pressure: both from Washington, in terms of pushing allies to increase defense spending, and from Russia, which remains the only real threat to the European continent. But NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s comments this week, that Europe should “keep on dreaming” if they think Europe can defend itself without the United States, risk undoing years of solid progress.
Almost all allies are now meeting their defense spending commitments of 2% of GDP on defense, reaffirmed at the Wales Summit in 2014, after years of inconsistent follow through and delayed implementation. At the most recent NATO Summit in the Hague in June 2025, all allies agreed to an even more ambitious new target: reaching 5% of GDP by 2035, with 3.5% of that total comprised of core defense requirements, and 1.5% comprised of other security related needs, like infrastructure updates. The primary challenges remain fourfold: reaching the targets without using creative accounting that masks inefficient spending, translating that spending into the necessary capabilities to actually defend Europe, integrating planning between European countries to avoid vast sets of unnecessary duplication, and ensuring the US remains committed to its alliance responsibilities.
The third issue—avoiding duplication—will always remain no matter how integrated Europe’s defense industry becomes. In fact, some degree of built-in redundancy will always be necessary. But the deeper challenge lies in the fact that the EU was never designed to function as a security planner or provider. That leads to issue four, which is that foundation for Europe’s continental defense will likely always fall within NATO’s purview. That means allies must ensure interoperability amongst platforms and settle with some degree of dependence on the US (which today, remains high) as the ultimate guarantor of Europe’s security.
Most understand the relationship with Europe will look fundamentally different going forward, and even when Trump eventually leaves office, the next US president, be they Democrat or Republic, is highly unlikely to try to “take the relationship back” to what it once was. In short, there’s no going back.
The problem with this overall picture is the tension between dueling schools of thought within NATO. Most allies are now committed to the idea that the US isn’t in a European policy interregnum. Most understand the relationship with Europe will look fundamentally different going forward, and even when Trump eventually leaves office, the next US president, be they Democrat or Republic, is highly unlikely to try to “take the relationship back” to what it once was. In short, there’s no going back. Therefore, it is up to Europe to build its own pillar within NATO and place the ultimate responsibility of its continental security squarely on its own shoulders. This approach is popular with the current US Administration, and it will likely be popular with the next one as well. A stronger Europe means a more capable ally, and more capable allies are good because they allow the US greater geopolitical flexibility.
Unfortunately, there’s another camp who think that a stronger European pillar within NATO risks creating a self-fulfilling prophecy; That greater European defense capabilities will signal to Washington that it can do less in Europe, and that in fact, that’s ok because Europe will be fine without it. That underlying fear creates a real aversion to discussions, let alone policy decisions, that will result in a more autonomous Europe.
Secretary Mark Rutte’s recent comments risk bolstering the argument of this second camp. Not only are his comments misguided, but there’s no reason a strong European pillar of NATO should remain a pipe dream. Nor should Europe rest on the assumption that it will always need the United States to defend it, or in the worst case, that the US will always be there to do so. In fact, the Europeanization of NATO is exactly what the Alliance needs to breathe new life into both its mission and meaning.
Secretary General Rutte must put his full-throated support behind Europe building its own defense capabilities independent of the United States—the future of NATO could depend on it.
This commentary originally appeared in Washington Examiner.
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
Rachel Rizzo is a Senior Fellow with ORF’s Strategic Studies Programme. Her work focuses on US foreign and defence policy, the transatlantic partnership, and US-Europe-India ...
Read More +
PREV
