Author : Manoj Joshi

Originally Published 2019-12-12 11:00:37 Published on Dec 12, 2019
Russian enmity with China had global consequences; so does their close friendship today. Both scenarios have an impact on India. Russia has been a long-time friend of India; it not only provided India arms to maintain formidable military profile, but also gave invaluable political support on a variety of regional issues. Transfer of military technology has been a key part of the Russian-Chinese relationship, both old & new.
India’s balancing act amid Russia-China ties

On December 2, the first shipments of Russian natural gas to China through the new Power of Siberia pipeline began. The $55-billion undertaking is one of the most significant made by Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union. It is part of a $400-billion deal to supply China with natural gas for the next 30 years.

The pipeline is a confirmation of the new geopolitical realities emerging in Eurasia, developments which cannot but have a profound impact on the world in general and India in particular.

While Russian enmity with China had global consequences, so does their close friendship today. Both scenarios have an impact on India, the former historically, and the latter in prospect. Russia has been a long-time friend of India, it not only provided India arms to maintain a formidable military profile, but also provided invaluable political support to India on a variety of regional issues. Transfer of military technology has been an important part of both the old and the new Russian-Chinese relationship. What is different now is the greater depth being developed between the two through their growing economic ties based on cross-border trade, Chinese investment and the role of Russia in the east-west railway transportation systems leading from China to Europe.

There is another important development that needs to be tracked in the coming decades — the emergence of the Arctic route to ocean transportation. This could speed up Asia-Europe maritime traffic by two to three weeks. The one country that is preparing well in advance for this is China, which issued its Arctic Policy in January 2018 and had begun talking about the Polar Silk Road.

India does not, and cannot, view this as a zero-sum game and has sought to engage both China and Russia bilaterally, as well as through a raft of organisations such as the Russia-India-China (RIC) grouping, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Brazil, Russia, India China and South Africa (BRICS) grouping. Not surprisingly, given the relative imbalance of power between them, Russia often sees India as a means of balancing China.

China and Russia came closer, driven by external circumstances — the western embargo of Moscow in 2014 and the emergence of concerns in the west over the rise of China. Since then, their relationship has progressed to the status of what many say is a quasi alliance. Indeed, in recent times, Vladimir Putin has been hailing the relationship as an “allied relationship of strategic partnership.”

India, too, has been trying to shore up its ties with Russia. This was manifested by the first informal summit held between India and Russia in 2018 which signalled India’s intention to double down on its arms purchase relationship with Russia. Subsequently, India signed up deals worth $15 billion with Russia, despite the threat of American sanctions. Among these was the S-400 missile system.

Both sides have underscored the need to focus on the weak non-defence economic relationship. A strategic and economic dialogue was established to identify problem areas and set them right. An important aspect of this was Russia’s invitation to India to invest in the Russian Far East (RFE), an issue that was followed by the decision to hold the 2019 annual bilateral summit in Vladivostok on September 4-5 where Prime Minister Modi was the chief guest at the 5th Eastern Economic Forum (EEF).

Despite the poor experience in relation to trade historically, there has been a distinct uptick of Indian interest in the RFE. Besides delegations of business associations, chief ministers of four Indian states were part of a delegation led by the Commerce and Industry Minister to the area and identified diamond-cutting, petrochemicals, wood-processing and tourism as potential areas of interest. Another significant development has been discussions on developing a maritime corridor between Chennai and Vladivostok. There is pressure on the two sides to sign a trade agreement between the EEU and India.

Energy remains a key area of cooperation between the two countries, a sector that has seen investments in both upstream and downstream sectors in recent years. Russia has become a new source of LNG for India.

The one area which has shown promise is bilateral investment with the two sides having achieved the $30 billion target set for 2025, well ahead of schedule. Of course, the bulk of the investments have been in the energy sector.

India is seeking to work on a longer- range strategy of offsetting Chinese power in its own backyard as it were. By itself, it lacks the resources to be a significant player in Northeast Asia. But along with Japan and Korea, it can be a player who the Russians will welcome because it helps them to prevent putting all their eggs in the Chinese basket.

There are still basic questions that need to be answered: We all know why India needs Russia. But just what place does India have in Russia’s global strategy? Is it merely a hedge against US and China or something more?

Russia cannot be oblivious to the fact that China is both a strategic competitor and a friend. Even while deferring to Russia in the Central Asian connection, Beijing is building connectivity linkages to Europe that bypass its current Russian connection. Its relationship to Central Asia is undermining the Russian influence in the region. Clearly, there is room for creative Indian diplomacy.


This commentary originally appeared in The Tribune.

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Author

Manoj Joshi

Manoj Joshi

Manoj Joshi is a Distinguished Fellow at the ORF. He has been a journalist specialising on national and international politics and is a commentator and ...

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