Published on Aug 21, 2024
India and Poland: Time for a strategic partnership

2024 will mark the 70th anniversary of establishing diplomatic relations between Poland and India. In recent years, both countries have seen a growing importance in their respective regions, strengthening their positions on the global stage. However, in opening up to Asia, Poland has primarily focused on China, while India, for historical reasons, has associated with Europe through its strategic partnerships with countries such as France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Today, following the new wave of Indian-EU relations after Brexit and the pandemic, and in the context of Sino-American rivalry, Warsaw and New Delhi have a significant opportunity to strengthen bilateral relations and establish a strategic partnership. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Poland is a step in this direction.

India is now the fifth and soon-to-be third-largest economy in the world, while Poland ranks sixth in the EU and 21st globally. India is becoming a key player in the Indo-Pacific region, where a systemic rivalry exists between two superpowers: China and the United States (US). Poland is positioned as the West's hub for operations in Ukraine, is the leading country on NATO's eastern flank, and plays a pivotal role in constructing a new architecture for European security against Russia.

Recognising these shifts, Warsaw and New Delhi are striving harder than ever to forge better political and economic ties. Their crowning achievement should be the establishment of a strategic partnership based on a synergy of interests.

Poland is positioned as the West's hub for operations in Ukraine, is the leading country on NATO's eastern flank, and plays a pivotal role in constructing a new architecture for European security against Russia.

This summer, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won its third consecutive national election, which lasted six weeks and involved nearly a billion voters. Despite its historical restraint, India is becoming increasingly engaged on the international stage, recognising that its enhanced global standing comes with growing responsibilities. In 2023, India chaired the G20, effectively utilising this platform for political and promotional purposes.

India's traditional friendship with Moscow and its dependence on Russian arms have constrained New Delhi's ability to take a definitive stand regarding Russia's aggression against Ukraine. India has leveraged the situation to its advantage by purchasing cheaper Russian oil and gas and conducting payments in rupees, complicating Russian maneuverability.

Meanwhile, the proximity to China and ongoing border issues necessitate New Delhi's maintenance of stable equipment supplies from Russia. Nonetheless, India has started increasing its arms purchases from the West and bolstering self-sufficiency in its defence sector; however, a full transition away from Russian dependence is expected to take at least another decade.

India and Poland

The last Polish prime minister to visit India was Donald Tusk in September 2010, while no head of the Indian government has travelled to Poland for 40 years. In this context, the visit of Prime Minister Modi to Warsaw from 21-22 August is extremely important for the future of relations between the two countries.

The statistics on bilateral visits by heads of state are slightly better. In 1994, President Lech Wałęsa visited India, followed by President Aleksander Kwaśniewski four years later. In 2009, President Pratibha Patil visited Poland, and in 2017, Vice President Mohammad Hamid Ansari of India made a visit. In March 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, President Andrzej Duda spoke by phone with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. His official visit to India is likely to happen in the spring of 2025.

Poles and Indians joined forces to retake the hill and monastery of Monte Cassino, pushing out German forces and opening the Allies' path to Rome.

The two countries share several chapters of history. During World War II, the Maharaja of Jamnagar provided refuge to several hundred Polish women and children trying to reach the West, sheltering them on his estate in Gujarat for several months. To this day, the “Children of the Maharaja” remain in contact, and a street and a junior high school in Warsaw have been named in his honour. In 1944, Poles and Indians joined forces to retake the hill and monastery of Monte Cassino, pushing out German forces and opening the Allies' path to Rome.

Today, Polish universities educate thousands of students from India. Poles are increasingly drawn to Bollywood films and Indian pop music. Tourism and business are growing in both directions, with Indian companies investing in Poland, particularly in the IT, biotechnology, electronics, and packaging sectors. In 2023, these companies employed about 10,000 Polish workers and invested over US$ 3 billion.

Economic cooperation

The southern Indian states of Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu are crucial centres for modern technology and industry. Tycoons such as INFOSYS and WIPRO have established service centres in Poland, significantly contributing to job creation and technology transfer. Karnataka's capital, Bangalore, is often referred to as the Silicon Valley of India, holding a 56 percent share in the global IT market in 2024 and is expected to grow at an annual rate of 11 percent.

South India also hosts a robust shipbuilding industry and critical ports located in Maharashtra, with Mumbai as its capital. Ninety percent of imports from European Union countries pass through Mumbai ports, India's economic and financial hub. The Reliance Group, founded by the Ambani family, has its headquarters in Mumbai and built its influence through trade with Poland in the 1970s.

Companies from Gujarat and Haryana, located in northern India, have established trade and investment cooperations with Poland in the dairy and automotive industries. An example of successful collaboration is the packaging factory operated by UFLEX in Września near Poznań, which demonstrates confidence in Poland as a gateway to Central and Eastern European markets. Tata Consultancy Services also maintains an office in Warsaw.

One of the earliest Polish companies to invest was Toruńskie Zakłady Materiałów Opatrunkowych, which opened a factory in Tamil Nadu in 2005 and later established a logistics centre.

India is the second-largest market for Polish foreign direct investments in Asia. According to data from the National Bank of Poland, in 2021, the value of Polish investments in India amounted to almost PLN 380 million. One of the earliest Polish companies to invest was Toruńskie Zakłady Materiałów Opatrunkowych, which opened a factory in Tamil Nadu in 2005 and later established a logistics centre. A car air conditioning installation factory operated by the Boryszew Group was also established in Karnataka. In recent years, the ICEA Group has launched a branch in India focusing on services for the e-commerce sector.

Trade and investment cooperation between Poland and India in the 21st century has produced several notable “success stories”. However, considering both countries' political and economic ambitions, their developmental achievements, and a mutual understanding of contemporary challenges, the potential for cooperation often outweighs the historical scope of bilateral relations.

While trade between Poland and India currently falls short of this South Asian giant's potential, there are promising signs of growth. In 2019, India was Poland's 28th largest trading partner, ranking 40th in exports (0.3 percent) and 25th in imports (0.8 percent). However, by 2021, bilateral trade had reached US$ 4.3 billion, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 57 percent. This positive trend persisted, with exports from Poland to India reaching EUR 1.5 billion and imports EUR 3.868 billion in the following year. 

Recommendations for Poland–India relations

India and Poland have undergone significant changes in their political and economic systems over the last 45 years. Meanwhile, the international context changed dramatically and the world became interconnected. This brings Asia and Europe closer than ever.

India has been analysing the developments in the Central and Eastern European countries and the key role of Poland in the new architecture of the European Union after enlargement and Brexit. In the same way, Poland takes into considerations the changes in Asia and the growing significance of India in the global world, especially vis-à-vis an assertive China.

The key areas of bilateral Poland-India cooperation should focus on research and development, particularly in electromobility. It is also essential to increase business contacts, including at the startup level. Joint development of hydrogen-related technologies, green technologies, solutions for the space sector, climate-friendly mining, and advancements in the agri-food sector holds promise. Expanding collaboration in security infrastructure and the capabilities of the defence and IT sectors is also warranted.

Direct air connections between New Delhi, Mumbai, and Warsaw facilitate business, scientific, and tourism ties that began in 2019. Poland's aspirations to create a new aviation hub in the heart of Europe could align well with India's expanding aviation infrastructure, where passenger traffic is growing by 15 percent annually.

With the largest ship design office in Europe and shipyards capable of constructing modern cargo and passenger vessels powered by electric and LNG propulsion, Poland could be a key partner.

For India, the implementation of the Sagarmala maritime infrastructure expansion programme represents a significant opportunity. This program provides 30 percent subsidies for ecological ports and shipyards, presenting a unique opportunity for collaboration with Poland. With the largest ship design office in Europe and shipyards capable of constructing modern cargo and passenger vessels powered by electric and LNG propulsion, Poland could be a key partner. Furthermore, India's land infrastructure, including roads and rail lines expanded through a system of industrial corridors across the Indian subcontinent, presents enticing opportunities for investors, particularly Polish companies.

In discussions about a strategic partnership, Poland needs to adopt a new perspective on India as a burgeoning global player, recognised by major world powers like the US and China, while concurrently expecting greater responsibility regarding international order matters. Thus, Warsaw should formulate a practical offer for India that encompasses comprehensive, mutually beneficial cooperation based on fresh assumptions. This may include the supply of military equipment, food, and products that are scarce in the Indian market, along with loans or grants. Business cooperation between the two countries would be significantly strengthened by signing an India-EU trade and investment agreement, which would also enhance Poland’s reputation in the subcontinent.

The topic of security must not be overlooked in discussions of a strategic partnership. Although historical and domestic factors prevent India from taking a public stance critical of Russia's actions in Ukraine, it is worth encouraging the Indian Prime Minister to adopt a more assertive position at the UN and in diplomatic circles. This is especially crucial given the global ramifications of the war, which impact India significantly, such as rising energy prices, food shortages, and disruptions to supply chains.

In Poland’s view, it is in India’s interest to support the “democratic world" in its struggle against all kinds of neo-imperialism and military aggression, actions counter to the principles of international law and the United Nations Charter. This support is particularly meaningful in the context of India’s ambitions to secure a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, which Poland endorses.

The ongoing war in Ukraine has brought Russia closer to China. Warsaw believes it is not in India's interest to allow strengthening ties between these two countries, especially as Indian-Chinese tensions persist, marked by unresolved border issues. Russia is not a problem for India but China is. The eventual shift from the US-led world order to a China-led one is the last thing India would want.

This article is a translated and abridged version of the original, which was first published by Centrum Stosunków Międzynarodowych.


Malgorzata Bonikowska is the President of CIR and a professor at Warsaw University, Centre for Europe.

Tomasz Łukaszuk is an expert at CIR and a professor at Warsaw University, Department of Political Sciences and International Studies

Bruno Surdel is a senior analyst at CIR.

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Authors

Małgorzata Bonikowska

Małgorzata Bonikowska

Małgorzata Bonikowska has a Ph.D. in humanities and she specializes in international relations (with particular emphasis on the European Union) and communication in public institutions. ...

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Tomasz Lukaszuk

Tomasz Lukaszuk

Tomasz Lukaszuk is a Marie Sklodowska-Curie Global India Research Fellow at Global India Program member of the Faculty of Political Science and International Studies University ...

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Bruno Surdel

Bruno Surdel

Bruno Surdel is a Political scientist and historian, with PhD in humanities. He graduated from the University of Warsaw. 2019 – 2020 and was a ...

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