Special ReportsPublished on Jun 13, 2025 In The Aftermath Of Operation Sindoor Escalation Deterrence And India Pakistan Strategic StabilityPDF Download
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In The Aftermath Of Operation Sindoor Escalation Deterrence And India Pakistan Strategic Stability

In the Aftermath of Operation Sindoor: Escalation, Deterrence, and India-Pakistan Strategic Stability

Attribution:

Harsh V Pant and Sameer Patil, Eds., “In the Aftermath of Operation Sindoor: Escalation, Deterrence, and India-Pakistan Strategic Stability,” ORF Special Report No. 263, June 2025, Observer Research Foundation.

Introduction 

Operation Sindoor, conducted by India in response to the Pahalgam terrorist attack, has decisively altered the security dynamics between India and Pakistan. This operation was the deepest and most extensive military campaign executed by India since the 1971 India-Pakistan war. Utilising advanced military capabilities, this tri-service operation targeted nine terrorist infrastructure sites in Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoJK) and Pakistani Punjab and subsequently several critical facilities of the Pakistani military. No less important was the role of Indian air defences in repelling Pakistani hostile drone activity and missile strikes. While India maintained that its initial strikes on 7 May were non-escalatory, the expanding nature of the Pakistani retaliation—targeting Indian military and civilian targets—forced New Delhi to gradually intensify its campaign in the subsequent days. As expected, Pakistan also attempted to engage in ‘nuclear blackmail’ to ward off any further Indian conventional escalation.

The importance of Operation Sindoor lies not only in its military dynamics but also in establishing a new normal in India’s counter-terrorism response. While the 2016 surgical strike and the 2019 Balakot air strike demonstrated India’s resolve against grave terrorist attacks, Sindoor showcased that no terrorist facility across the border and the Line of Control is off-limits for its military. The strikes hit, among other targets, the headquarters of Lashkar-e-Taiba (Muridke), Jaish-e-Mohammad (Bahawalpur), and Hizbul Mujahideen (Muzaffarabad)–facilities which, for decades, had figured in India’s cross-border terror threat calculus and yet had escaped reprisals not only due to the lack of risk-taking and requisite military capabilities but also because of Pakistan’s often-invoked bogey of ‘nuclear blackmail’.

Operation Sindoor, even as it is ongoing, has discarded several longstanding shibboleths in India’s strategic and diplomatic thinking. For the first time, New Delhi has made it clear that it will not distinguish between terrorists and those supporting them, and that any future terrorist attack will be considered an act of war. This formulation is momentous, as it explicitly puts the onus on the Pakistani state and society, making it clear that the choices they make in pursuing the policy of terrorism can no longer have ‘plausible deniability.’ The Pakistani establishment may have drawn opposite conclusions from events during Operation Sindoor, but it must grasp one inevitable reality: cross-border terrorism against India is no longer a ‘cost-free option’. There will be tangible and escalating costs for Pakistan.

The intense Indian military campaign also underlined several trends. It showcased the dawn of the new age of warfare in the South Asian context. It was the first time that India executed a multi-domain operation of such scale and complexity. The Indian military deployed kamikaze drones, precision-strike munitions, and supersonic cruise missiles to strike at the heart of Pakistan. Secondly, the performance of the indigenous defence equipment highlighted the success of India’s policy emphasis on the ‘Made in India’ platforms over the last decade. In addition, the episode demonstrated the enduring Chinese role in enabling Pakistani maleficence. For the Indian foreign policy establishment, the diplomatic developments around Operation Sindoor highlighted new challenges as New Delhi reinforces its strategic autonomy approach. India’s diplomatic stance has sent a message to the global community that it has zero tolerance against terrorism and expects the world to hold Pakistan accountable as well.

While overt military engagements may have paused, India continues to exert calibrated pressure on Pakistan through a spectrum of non-kinetic instruments, leveraging diplomatic and geoeconomic means to advance its strategic objectives. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty constitutes the most significant step taken by India to coerce Rawalpindi and Islamabad to change their pathological behaviour. The campaign for Pakistan’s re-inclusion in the grey list of the Financial Action Task Force is another such punitive measure. It’s a long game that has just begun.

This special report from the Observer Research Foundation gathers its experts to comprehensively explore different facets of the developments in April-May 2025. It is divided into four parts. The first section analyses the doctrinal and strategic aspects of Operation Sindoor. The following section deep dives into the operational domain, explaining how elements such as drones, air defences, cyber, space, and nuclear capabilities were utilised during the campaign. The third section examines the evolving diplomatic contours surrounding Operation Sindoor. The final segment assesses the way forward for Indian foreign policy and its defence industry, for Pakistan and its military, and most importantly, for Kashmir—from where it all began.

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Editors

Harsh V. Pant

Harsh V. Pant

Professor Harsh V. Pant is Vice President – Studies and Foreign Policy at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. He is a Professor of International Relations ...

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Sameer Patil

Sameer Patil

Dr Sameer Patil is Director, Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology at the Observer Research Foundation.  His work focuses on the intersection of technology and national ...

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