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From tariff wars and strategic decoupling to climate-induced catastrophes and regional conflicts, geopolitical whirlwinds have significantly fragmented the global order. In an increasingly multipolar world where volatility is the norm and short-term optics trump long-term rational policymaking, we cannot afford to let the European Union’s green transition agenda become collateral damage.
Shock-resilient frameworks that insulate climate cooperation from geopolitical volatility and economic disruption are the need of the hour. At this strategic inflection point, the ‘I2U2’ groupcomprising the United States (US), India, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Israel—emerges as a flexible and high-impact vehicle. As minilateralism gathers momentum, I2U2, recently reinvigorated by the February 2025 meeting between the Indian Prime Minister Modi and US President Donald Trump, offers an agile format for advancing climate-driven cooperation, fostering economic stabilisation, and deepening regional integration.
The resurgence of protectionism, amplified by the Trump presidency, shook governments, stock markets, and people alike. Tariffs have rattled global supply chains and inflated consumer costs. Today’s inward-turning economic policies, pursued in the name of national security and resilience, pose a direct threat to green value chains, which are inherently global. This is particularly concerning for the green economy, whose value chain is global by default and extensively dependent on cross-border flows of vital green transition components, for example— solar panels, Electric Vehicle (EV) batteries, rare earth, and other critical minerals. It must be noted that it is not easy to develop domestic capacity and ‘reshore’ overnight must be heeded. Besides, any meaningful action can be easily reversed with changes in government, sending investors and long-term policy planning into a tailspin.
A strengthened I2U2, strategically aligned with IMEC, can mitigate this risk by anchoring climate action in practical, cross-regional cooperation that enhances both resilience and stability.
Historically, energy security has been a significant driver of geopolitical fragmentation. The US strategic disengagement from the Middle East coincided with its own shale oil revolution. The Houthi attacks on the Red Sea have, in turn, catalysed interest in alternative connectivity corridors. Initiatives such as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) are gaining traction as logistics solutions and regional and climate-related stabilisers.
If the climate agenda remains vulnerable to geopolitical tensions and economic shocks, the energy transition risks losing momentum. A strengthened I2U2, strategically aligned with IMEC, can mitigate this risk by anchoring climate action in practical, cross-regional cooperation that enhances both resilience and stability.
Minilaterals offer a distinct platform to collaborate among like-minded countries. They are flexible, targeted, function-driven, and can be particularly effective in reconciling strained bilateral relations or paralysed multilateral institutions. In some sense, they amplify Ricardo’s principle of comparative advantage to international cooperation. For instance, the US with its strong capital market and innovation, the UAE with its deep hydrocarbon revenues and strategic geography, India with its labour, scale, and market, and Israel with its cutting edge technology and its strategic location as the conduit between the East and the West offer a complementarity that can marry economic prosperity with environmental protection.
Each of the I2U2 countries has expressed an interest in cooperating, but the volatile political climate has stalled progress. A green transition agenda rooted in economic pragmatism can provide both the momentum for action and a foundation for long-term regional stability. Energy Security is clearly an equally shared concern for both the Global North and the Global South today. Thus, their coordinating efforts to strengthen and diversify green supply chains could drive prosperity while advancing global climate goals.
The I2U2— anchored by four influential and diverse power centres— can add significant weight to the green transition agenda.
The logic is rather simple: small groups, big agendas, and targeted action. The I2U2— anchored by four influential and diverse power centres— can add significant weight to the green transition agenda. It has the potential to catalyse green manufacturing and job creation, expand access to new markets, deepen strategic partnerships, and build resilient, diversified supply chains. By pooling resources and focusing on high-impact sectors—such as energy, water, transportation, health, space, and food security—the I2U2 countries can collectively shape a more sustainable and stable future.
Coordinated governance between I2U2 and IMEC stakeholders would elevate this vision, linking climate policy, trade flows, and connectivity into a coordinated strategic architecture.
I2U2’s strength is its flexibility and focus, distinguishing it from larger, more cumbersome institutions. While groupings like BRICS+ (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) aim for formal expansion and geopolitical weight, I2U2 offers an alternative: a modular, task-oriented framework that could enable dynamic coalitions built around specific functions, sectors, and shared priorities.
This ‘I2U2+’ model—centred on rotating coalitions of willing partners—can be deployed to respond rapidly to emerging climate and development challenges. Rather than seeking to expand membership permanently, I2U2+ invites external partners to plug into ongoing initiatives where their capacities and interests align. This structure enhances both agility and relevance, allowing for scalable cooperation without institutional gridlock.
This modular format also offers significant diplomatic utility beyond its economic and climate-related advantages. By allowing strategic partners to engage without the need for formal alignment, it lowers political barriers to cooperation and broadens the coalition’s reach. Its task-based structure enables the formation of issue-specific partnerships that avoid becoming entangled in broader geopolitical rivalries—a valuable feature in a multipolar world marked by shifting alliances and regional complexity. For middle powers seeking greater strategic autonomy amid intensifying US-China competition, I2U2+ provides a pragmatic, non-binary platform to do more together. In this way, it functions as a diplomatic bridge-builder, linking regions, industries, and innovation ecosystems around a shared commitment to sustainable and inclusive green growth.
In an era where transactionalism trumps treaty-making, pragmatic minilateralism offers a more viable path forward. I2U2’s strength lies in its ability to balance national interest with collective action, advancing green agendas through market logic, diplomatic agility, and strategic alignment.
The Trump administration may be more inclined to support a ‘jobs-first, energy-secure’ green corridor, which offers supply chain diversification and US market access more than a multilateral emissions agreement. This is where the I2U2 grouping excels by turning climate cooperation into a cross-regional strategic proposition.
Moreover, green corridors can serve as self-reinforcing stabilisers—creating economic interdependencies that act as narrative changes and guardrails against conflict. I2U2, alongside IMEC, could become both a vehicle of green growth and a tool for regional stabilisation, forging a new model of geoeconomic diplomacy in an age of disruption.
This commentary originally appeared in ORF Middle East.
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
Mannat Jaspal is currently serving as a Director & Fellow - Climate and Energy, at the ORF Middle East, UAE. Her research delves into the ...
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Gedaliah Afterman is the head of the Asia Policy Program at the Abba Eban Institute for Diplomacy and Foreign Relations at Reichman University (IDC Herzliya)
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