Source: Statistical Review of World Energy 2025
The global oil market in 2026 stands at a crossroads, defined by two sharply divergent narratives: one of looming surplus, where abundant supply suppresses prices, and another of impending deficit, where underinvestment and resilient demand could drive them to historic highs. These competing visions are not merely forecasts but parallel realities, suggesting a volatile future rather than a stable equilibrium.
Forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the United States (US) Energy Information Administration (EIA), and other institutions point to substantial oil surpluses in 2026. Non‑OPEC+ (organisation of oil-producing and exporting countries consisting of 13 members plus 10 additional non‑OPEC nations) production growth, particularly from the US (shale), Brazil, and Guyana, is expected to outpace demand. The IEA recently trimmed its surplus projection to 3.84 million barrels per day (bpd), still equivalent to nearly 4 percent of global consumption. Analysts warn this could mirror the 2015–2016 glut, when prices collapsed from US$115 to US$26/bbl (barrel), filling OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) storage and forcing persistent contango (when futures price of oil is higher than the current spot price) in futures markets.
US shale remains resilient, with breakeven prices below US$50/bbl, enabling output growth even at US$56/bbl. OPEC+ spare capacity, estimated at over 5 million bpd, further dampens upside risks. Some estimates suggest supply could grow three times faster than demand, building inventories and pressuring oil prices toward US$55–60/bbl (Brent) through 2026. Without intervention, some analysts even foresee prices sliding into the US$30s by 2027.
Structural demand headwinds reinforce this bearish outlook. Electric vehicle (EV) adoption is accelerating, with projections that EVs could comprise half of new vehicle sales by 2030. As battery costs decline and charging infrastructure expands, oil’s dominance in transportation could reduce. Beyond transport, industrial sectors are increasingly turning to electrification and hydrogen alternatives. China’s shift toward a service‑oriented economy and OECD demand decline add to the perception that global oil demand may have already peaked. In this view, oil prices are entering a “lower for longer” regime, averaging US$50–60/bbl.
In contrast, OPEC and long‑term analysts highlight emerging deficits beyond 2026. OPEC’s October 2025 report flagged a modest shortfall of 50,000 bpd, challenging surplus projections. The deficit narrative rests on chronic underinvestment in upstream projects since the 2014–2016 price collapse, intensified by pandemic disruptions and climate pressures. Capital expenditure has remained far below the US$500–600 billion annually required to offset natural declines. Without new projects, existing fields—declining at 5–7 million bpd annually—could create structural deficits by 2030.
Shale, while a near‑term supply buffer, is a high‑treadmill asset. Wells decline 60–70 percent in their first year, requiring constant reinvestment. Prolonged sub‑US$60/bbl prices in 2026 could discourage investment, exacerbating depletion. Discoveries are at 60‑year lows, and unconventional resources like shale and deepwater require higher costs and shorter lifespans. The IEA warns that without sustained investment, global oil production could decline 8 percent annually post‑2025.
Demand, meanwhile, may prove more resilient than transition optimists expect. Petrochemicals, aviation, shipping, and heavy industry lack scalable alternatives. Even aggressive EV adoption scenarios suggest internal combustion vehicles will dominate fleets for decades. Emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America continue to drive consumption growth, while energy‑intensive infrastructure for renewables paradoxically sustains fossil fuel demand during the transition. The IEA’s current policies scenario projects oil demand rising to 113 million bpd by 2050, 13 percent higher than earlier estimates, driven by energy security priorities, AI data centres, and emerging market growth.
Geopolitical risks amplify deficit concerns. Sanctions on Russia and Iran, instability in Venezuela, and OPEC+ production strategies could tighten supply. Concentrated spare capacity in the Middle East may create fragility: a single disruption could propel prices above US$100/bbl. Analysts warn that climate policies, while aimed at reducing demand, constrain supply more immediately by discouraging investment, creating a dangerous gap between resilient demand and inadequate supply.
The energy transition itself may temporarily increase oil demand through what analysts call the “substitution paradox.” Building renewable infrastructure, mining critical minerals, and manufacturing batteries require enormous energy inputs, much of which currently comes from fossil fuels. This paradox underscores the complexity of forecasting demand during the transition.
Trade tensions, tariffs, and sanctions cloud both narratives. US–China trade disputes could curb demand, while sanctions on Iran and Russia tighten supply. If prices remain below US$55/bbl, even Gulf producers may reduce output, adding to deficit risks. Climate policies and ESG (environmental, social, and governance) further complicate investment decisions, discouraging fossil fuel projects while demand remains robust.
It is likely that the surplus and deficit narratives operate on different timelines. The surplus view dominates the immediate horizon (2026–2027), with high production and inventory builds likely to suppress prices. Yet these very low prices sow the seeds of future deficits by discouraging long‑cycle investment. The deficit narrative emerges in the latter half of the decade, as underinvestment collides with resilient demand and accelerating field declines.
Imports
Indian refiners are poised to sharply curtail imports of Russian oil to comply with new US (United States) sanctions on two top Russian producers, potentially removing a major hurdle to a trade deal with the US. The change comes as India faces punishing 50 percent tariffs on its exports to the US - with half of those duties in retaliation for Russian oil purchases - and negotiates a potential trade deal that could bring those tariffs in line with Asian peers in exchange for winding down crude imports from Moscow. India has emerged as the biggest buyer of discounted seaborne Russian crude in the aftermath of Moscow’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, importing about 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first nine months of this year. Reliance Industries Ltd, the top Indian buyer of Russian crude, plans to reduce or cease imports of Russian oil, including halting purchases under its large long-term deal with Rosneft. Indian state refiners including Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) are reviewing their Russian oil trade documents to ensure no supply will be coming directly from Rosneft and Lukoil after the US sanctioned the oil companies.
India’s Russian oil imports between April and September fell 8.4 percent on year due to narrower discounts and tighter supplies, with refiners seeking more oil from the Middle East and the United States. India is also under pressure from Washington, which has doubled tariffs on Indian goods, to reduce Russian oil imports. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro had said India’s purchases of Russian crude were funding Moscow's war in Ukraine. A refiner in India shipped in 1.75 million bpd of Russian oil in the first half of this fiscal year that began on 1 April.
LPG
India plans to cut imports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the Middle East as its state refiners look to boost purchases from the US (United States), bolstering New Delhi's efforts to secure a broader trade deal with Washington. The state refiners have already informed their traditional suppliers of LPG in Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar about the likely cut in LPG purchases. The planned size of the LPG supply reduction from the Middle East wasn’t clear, but India aims to source about 10 percent of its cooking gas imports from the US beginning in 2026. During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington in February, India pledged to raise US energy purchases from US$10 bn to US$25 bn, with both nations targeting US$500 bn in bilateral trade by 2030. India’s trade surplus with the US is a key irritant for President Donald Trump, who has imposed a 50 percent tariff on Indian goods - with 25 percentage points of that total specifically levied to penalise New Delhi for purchases of Russian oil. This year, India has bought some parcels of US LPG, taking advantage of the arbitrage window as China, locked in a tariff war with Washington, slowed purchases.
The Uttar Pradesh (UP) government is set to provide two free LPG refills to women beneficiaries of the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana. The announcement will be officially made by Chief Minister (CM) Yogi Adityanath at Lok Bhavan, benefitting 18.6 million (mn) households across the state. The scheme, launched in 2016, aims to replace traditional cooking fuels with LPG in rural and economically weaker households. UP leads the country in implementation, with over 18.6 million connections already distributed. The government has allocated INR15 bn (US$165.62 mn) for the scheme, with an advance amount of INR3.46 bn already given to oil companies for smooth delivery. The first phase will benefit 12.3 million Aadhaar-verified women. Beneficiaries will buy LPG cylinders at the current market price, and the subsidy will be credited to their Aadhaar-linked bank accounts within 3 to 4 days. The scheme will be implemented through IOC, BPCL, and HPCL.
According to Union Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, nearly 106 million Indian households are cooking with affordable LPG, and about 67 million people refuel their vehicles each day. India is also the fourth-largest LNG importer and a global refining hub, consuming 5.5 million barrels of oil each day. India’s energy sector continues to grow despite global uncertainty, driven by reforms in oil and gas. The country’s refining capacity has risen from 215 to 258 million metric tonnes per annum (MMTPA), and the Jamnagar refinery has become Asia’s largest, exporting petroleum products to over 100 countries. Under the Open Acreage Licensing Policy (OALP) Round 10, around 2.5 lakh square km (kilometre) has been opened for exploration and production. The number of clearances required for exploration has been reduced from 37 to 18 to improve ease of doing business. More than US$1.3 bn has been invested in the upstream segment to enhance oil exploration and production. India has reopened nearly one million square km of previously restricted offshore areas for exploration since 2022. Since 2015, exploration and production (E&P) companies have reported 172 hydrocarbon discoveries, including 62 offshore.
Demand
India’s petrol sales surged to a five-month high in October on festive travel boost, but diesel consumption remained flattish, defying the trend. Petrol consumption rose 7 percent year-on-year to 3.65 MT in October, as the onset of festival season increased demand for the fuel. The sales were higher month-on-month as well when compared to 3.4 MT in September. Diesel - the most consumed fuel in the country, accounting for almost 40 percent of the fuel consumption basket - posted a marginal drop in sales at 7.6 MT in October compared to 7.64 MT in the same month of the previous year.
Refining
Indian Oi Corporation has invited initial bids for 24 million barrels of oil from the Americas for the January-March quarter in 2026. Many Indian refiners paused new orders for Russian oil after the US (United States) imposed sanctions on Moscow’s top two producers, with some turning to the spot market for alternatives. IOC is looking to gauge market interest in the event that it needs to buy oil from the Americas.
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) issued two rare tenders to import transport fuels for early November delivery, after the company shut one of its processing units due to feedstock contamination. HPCL had closed its gasoline-producing continuous catalytic reformer during the processing of contaminated oil that it had sourced from Hindustan Oil Exploration Company. As per HOECL it will engage in talks with HPCL over redressing the issue. HPCL has sought about 34,000 tonnes of gasoline and 65,000 tonnes of gasoil for delivery between 1 and 10 November at the port of Mundra on the western coast of India.
Production
According to the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, India would lose credibility if it is unable to make a big oil and gas discovery soon. The Centre recently introduced several legislative changes in the exploration space to support the industry. To boost production, India has been expediting exploration activities while also urging international oil companies to collaborate with domestic players for high-end technology. Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the National Deepwater Exploration Mission in August 2025 aimed at discovering oil and gas reserves in the deep sea. India has not witnessed a big oil and gas discovery since Mumbai High and Krishna Godavari. The Mumbai High discovery was made in 1974, while Krishna Godavari was in the early 2000s. The Indian government is banking on exploration activities currently in place in the Andaman Sea, expecting a “Guyana-like” discovery from the region.
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is planning 15 percent reduction in overall costs in two years as the firm sees crude oil prices sliding to US$60 per barrel amid an oversupplied oil market. Planning overall cost reductions of over INR90 bn (US$1 bn) by financial year 2026-27 (FY27), India’s largest oil and gas explorer expects lower costs on forecast of higher production primarily from Mumbai High field, scaled-up operations at Pipalav supply base and venturing into oil trading business. The company is undertaking initiatives such as offshore resource optimisation, increasing drilling efficiency, logistics route optimisation, inventory reduction and increasing fuel efficiency. In an effort to unlock over INR10 bn in savings, ONGC is scaling up operations at Pipavav supply base in Gujarat. As per ONGC, it has been able to arrest the declining trend in its production by registering 1 percent year-on-year (YoY) increase in crude oil output in FY25. In the first half of FY26, the company registered consistent increase in output. ONGC saw an increase of 1.2 percent in total oil production in Q1 of FY26, while a boost of 1.1 percent in oil output in Q2. ONGC’s collaboration with energy major BP to boost output from Mumbai High field will unlock up to $15 bn incremental revenue in 10 years. ONGC targets 44 percent boost in oil production to 65.41 MT and over 89 percent boost in gas production in a decade’s time. In January 2025, ONGC selected BP as technical Services Provider (TSP) for its Mumbai field. ONGC foresees higher production from 98/2 block in Krishna Godavari basin expecting 12 MT of oil and 13.5 bcm (billion cubic meters) of gas in next few years. ONGC has engaged BP as subject matter expert to diagnose root-case and identify well interventions to boost production in 98/2 block.
Transport
Oil India Ltd announced the mechanical completion of its Numaligarh–Siliguri Product Pipeline (NSPL) upgradation project, marking a key step in strengthening petroleum product transport infrastructure across India’s northeast. The NSPL project, completed on 12 October 2025, enhances the capacity of the existing pipeline from 1.77 MMTPA to 5.5 MMTPA, allowing the company to handle increased volumes of refined products from the Numaligarh Refinery in Assam. The pipeline connects the Numaligarh Refinery in Assam to Siliguri in West Bengal, serving as a vital evacuation route for petroleum products from the northeast to other parts of the country. With the upgradation, Oil India expects to significantly reduce transportation bottlenecks and improve supply efficiency.
World
Global oil prices are signalling that the market is tipping into a protracted period of oversupply, but the huge disparity in forecasts for OPEC’s production will likely limit the selloff. Prompt Brent oil prices traded near US$61 a barrel, the lowest since May. But, just as importantly, futures contracts for February delivery have started trading at a pronounced discount to future prices. The IEA has for months warned that there will be a severe oil glut in 2025 and 2026, pointing to the ramp-up in production around the world, particularly from members of the OPEC+ alliance.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), sanctions on oil-exporting countries could push up crude prices but the effect will be limited because of surplus capacity. Global oil prices jumped more than 7 percent with Brent futures trading at US$65 per barrel after US President Donald Trump hit Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil with sanctions to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the Ukraine war. While sanctions could push prices upward, the effect is limited with oil prices holding at around US$60 due to a huge amount of surplus capacity.
The world oil market faces an even bigger surplus next year of as much as 4 million bpd as OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus) producers and rivals lift output and demand remains sluggish, the IEA predicted. The latest outlook from the IEA, which advises industrialised countries, expands its prediction of a 2026 surplus from about 3.3 million bpd last month. A surplus of 4 million bpd would be equal to almost 4 percent of world demand, and is much larger than other analysts' predictions. OPEC+ is adding more crude to the market after the OPEC, Russia and other allies decided to unwind some output cuts more rapidly than earlier scheduled. The extra supply is adding to fears of a glut and weighing on oil prices this year. In the IEA’s view, supply is rising far faster than demand. This year, it expects supply to rise by 3.0 million bpd, up from 2.7 million bpd previously. Next year, supply will rise by a further 2.4 million bpd, it said.
Africa & Middle East/ OPEC+
OPEC+ agreed a small oil output increase for December and a pause in increases in the first quarter of next year as the producers' group moderates plans to regain market share due to rising fears of a supply glut. OPEC+ has raised output targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day - or around 2.7 percent of global supply - since April, but slowed the pace from October amid predictions of a looming oversupply. New Western sanctions on OPEC+ member Russia are adding to challenges in the strategy, as Moscow may struggle to further raise output after the US and Britain imposed new measures on top producers Rosneft and Lukoil.
Libya’s Oil National Corporation (NOC) announced a new oil discovery in well H1-NC4 by its subsidiary Arabian Gulf Oil Company (AGOCO) in the Ghadames oil basin. The Ghadames basin is located in northwestern Libya, near the Libyan-Algerian border. The company’s oil production had reached up to 310,000 bpd by the end of October. The corporation announced another oil discovery in the Sirte Basin through Austrian oil, gas and chemicals group OMV, with production testing showing more than 4,200 bpd of oil and over 2.6 million cubic feet (mcf) of gas per day.
Saudi Arabia’s Aramco the world’s top oil exporter, reported a 2.3 percent fall in quarterly profit, citing a drop in crude and product prices, but its performance improved from the previous quarter as oil production rose. The company’s total hydrocarbon production was 13.27 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in the third quarter, compared to 12.8 million boepd the previous quarter. Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports in August rose to their highest level in six months, data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed. Crude exports increased to 6.407 million barrels per day (bpd) from 5.994 million bpd in July, marking their highest level since February 2025. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, recorded crude output of 9.722 million bpd in August, up from 9.201 million bpd in July. Refinery crude throughput in the kingdom fell to 2.902 million bpd in August, a 2.6 percent decline from July’s 2.978 million bpd, JODI data revealed, while direct crude burning decreased slightly by 1,000 bpd to 607,000 bpd.
Saudi Aramco can sustain crude oil production at 12 million bpd for a year without incurring additional costs, chief executive officer (CEO) Amin Nasser said. Saudi Arabia holds a substantial share of the world's spare oil capacity - idle supply that can quickly be brought to market. Nasser projected global oil demand would rise by 1.1 million to 1.3 million bpd this year, and by 1.2 million to 1.4 million bpd in 2026. Nasser said Aramco’s extraction costs stood at US$2 per barrel of oil equivalent for oil and US$1 per boe for gas.
Iraq’s total oil exports stand at 3.6 millionbpd, Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani said, adding that a fire at Iraq’s Zubair oilfield. Exports were proceeding normally and remained uninterrupted, Abdel-Ghani said, with exports from Iraq’s northern Kurdistan region at 195,000 bpd and sometimes as high as 200,000 bpd after northern shipments resumed following a deal in late September. Iraq reported total oil exports of about 3.4 million bpd last month. Separately, Abdel-Ghani said Iraq was in talks over the size of its OPEC quota within its capacity of 5.5 million bpd. OPEC's biggest overproducer submitted plans in April to further cut output to make up for pumping more than agreed quotas. Abdel-Ghani said Iraq was committed to its current OPEC quota of 4.4 million bpd.
Russia/Central Asia
Russian oil production rose in September to 9.321 million barrels per day (bpd), up 148,000 bpd from August, as the world’s leading oil producing countries continued to ramp up production, OPEC monthly data showed. Last month’s production was still below Russia’s OPEC+ output quota for September of 9.415 million bpd, however. OPEC+, Russia and some smaller producers, has increased its oil output targets by more than 2.7 million bpd this year, equating to about 2.5 percent of global demand. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia had been gradually raising its oil production. OPEC said Kazakhstan’s oil output last month edged down by 26,000 bpd to 1.840 million bpd, still above its quota set by OPEC+ for September of 1.550 million bpd. Kazakhstan has been one of the main laggards in the OPEC+ deal due to an increase in output at the Chevron-led Tengiz oilfield, the country’s largest.
North & South America
The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) rejected a Colonial Pipeline proposal to change the way it delivers gasoline from the Gulf Coast to consumers in the Northeast, noting the company failed to show the proposal was just and reasonable. Colonial in March filed a tariff update seeking regulatory approval to end overlapping shipments of different gasoline grades, while also ending shipments of so-called "Grade 5" gasoline sold in some northeastern states during the winter. The company also wanted to modify delivery specifications. A group of Colonial shippers, including oil majors Exxon Mobile and BP, had protested the changes, arguing they would harm their businesses by shifting blending margins away from them to Colonial. Shippers had also argued the changes would harm consumers by raising fuel prices at the pumps.
Rigs drilling beneath the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico will drive US oil industry growth this year and next as onshore production slows due to lower prices and maturing shale fields, and analysts and consultants expect the trend to continue as new technology and friendly regulations attract investment offshore. The offshore oil and gas sector took a backseat to shale in recent years because drilling at sea requires years of construction work and higher upfront investments. Entry costs were lower for shale production and returns quicker, so rapid expansion in shale made the US the world’s top oil producer. Now, technological improvements allow for high-pressure offshore drilling while US President Donald Trump has brought in industry-friendly regulations. With the most prolific shale areas depleting in giant fields like the Permian, shale producers must shift drilling to less productive areas at higher prices. Offshore production accounts for about 15 percent of total US output and is likely to drive growth for the US oil industry this year. The US Energy Information Administration projected US Gulf of Mexico output will rise by 100,000 bpd to 1.89 million bpd in 2025 after dropping by 70,000 bpd last year. Output is set to climb to 1.96 million bpd in 2026.
According to Bank of America, if US-China trade tensions intensify while OPEC+ production ramps up, Brent prices could slip below US$50 a barrel. The bank maintained its Brent forecast at US$61 a barrel for the final quarter of 2025 and US$64 a barrel for the first half of 2026, citing a likely floor around US$55. World oil supply is expected to closely match demand next year as the broader OPEC+ group increases production, OPEC report showed. Meanwhile, the IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply growth this year following OPEC+’s decision to hike production, while lowering its demand growth forecast due to a more challenging economic backdrop. On the trade front, US President Donald Trump said he was considering terminating some trade ties with China, singling out cooking oil. Both countries began imposing tit-for-tat port fees.
Asia Pacific
Pakistan has awarded 23 offshore exploration blocks to four consortiums led by local energy companies, some partnered with foreign firms including Turkey’s national oil company TPAO. In Pakistan’s first such bidding round in nearly two decades, its energy ministry said that bids were awarded for 23 of 40 offshore blocks offered, covering around 53,500 square kilometres. The energy ministry listed Oil and Gas Development Co. Ltd (OGDCL), Pakistan Petroleum Ltd (PPL) and MariEnergies, along with privately-owned Prime Energy, which is backed by Pakistan’s Hub Power Company (Hubco), among the successful bidders.
China’s crude oil imports rose 3.9 percent in September from a year earlier as refineries operated at their highest utilisation rates this year. The world’s largest crude importer, China brought in 47.25 MT of oil in September, data from the General Administration of Customs showed, or the equivalent of 11.5 million bpd. China’s refinery utilisation rates in September climbed to the year’s highest, with relatively high levels of daily gasoline and diesel output, though supply continued to outpace demand, Chinese consulting firm Oilchem said. For the first nine months of the year, total crude imports were up 2.6 percent at 423 MT, reflecting China’s continued stockpiling activity. Imports of natural gas, including both pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG), fell 7.8 percent in September to 11.05 MT from a year earlier.
India to source 10 percent of annual LPG imports from US under first-ever deal
17 November: India has signed its first structured, long-term contract to import LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) from the United States (US), a move the government says will strengthen the country’s energy security and diversify supply sources at a time of rising global volatility. Union Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri announced that state-run oil companies have finalised a one-year deal to import around 2.2 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LPG from the US Gulf Coast for the contract year 2026. This volume represents nearly 10 percent of India’s annual LPG imports, marking a major shift in the country’s sourcing strategy. The contract is India’s first-ever structured LPG purchase agreement with the US, and is benchmarked to Mont Belvieu, the key US pricing hub for LPG. India is the world’s second-largest LPG consumer, with demand driven by rapid household adoption and the continued expansion of the Ujjwala Yojana, which provides subsidised LPG connections to low-income households. Currently, India imports over 50 percent of its LPG needs, with most of the supply coming from West Asian markets. The move to source a sizeable portion from the US is part of New Delhi’s strategy to reduce dependence on traditional suppliers, improve supply stability and hedge against sharp price spikes in the global market. Puri highlighted that despite global LPG prices surging more than 60 percent last year, the government ensured that Ujjwala beneficiaries continued to pay only INR500–550 per cylinder, while actual costs touched INR1,100. The government, he said, absorbed the remaining burden, spending over INR400 billion to shield consumers from the price shock.
India's HPCL, MRPL buy 5 million barrels of US, Mideast oil
10 November: Two Indian state refiners have purchased 5 million barrels of crude oil from spot markets via tenders as they continue to scout for alternatives to Russian supplies, traders said. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), has bought 2 million barrels each of US (United States) West Texas Intermediate crude and Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude for January arrival, they said. Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) has bought one million barrels of Basra Medium crude for1-7 January delivery, they said. MRPL has paused purchase of Russian oil due to the risks involved. HPCL, which has cut its intake of Russian oil in the last few months, has paused imports from Russia.
IGGL’s commences gas supply to Numaligarh Refinery, marks start of Northeast Gas Grid
12 November: Indradhanush Gas Grid Ltd (IGGL) has begun supplying natural gas to Numaligarh Refinery Ltd (NRL) via the Guwahati-Numaligarh Pipeline, marking the historic launch of the Northeast Gas Grid (NEGG). This significant development signals the first commercial flow of natural gas through IGGL’s pipeline network, advancing the vision of "One Nation, One Gas Grid." NEGG, a flagship initiative by the Government of India, aims to connect the Northeast region to the National Gas Grid, ensuring a sustainable energy supply. The Guwahati-Numaligarh pipeline, an engineering feat, navigates through challenging terrains and is pivotal to providing clean energy to remote areas. This successful milestone sets the stage for the completion of Phase I of the 554 km pipeline and future expansions, including connections to other industrial and city gas distribution networks. IGGL is a joint venture of five major PSUs.
Mumbai CNG supply disrupted after damage to main GAIL pipeline
16 November: Compressed natural gas (CNG) supply to the financial capital was affected due to a damage to the main pipeline, Mahangar Gas Ltd (MGL) said. A majority of autorickshaws and taxis, including those operated by companies such as Ola and Uber, and also some of the buses run by public transport undertakings run on compressed natural gas (CNG) supplied by MGL. The gas utility, however, said it has "prioritised" supply to residences that will ensure that piped natural gas supply to homes continues. Due to third-party damage in the main gas supply pipeline of GAIL (India) Ltd inside RCF (Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertiliser) compound, the gas supply to MGL’s City Gate Station (CGS) at Wadala has been affected, the company said. CNG stations across Mumbai, Thane and Navi Mumbai, including the dedicated CNG stations for public transport undertakings "may not operate" due to stoppage of gas supply in CGS Wadala, and, thereby, the MGL pipeline network, it said. The company did not give any timeline by when the gas supply will be restored or elaborate on the reasons leading to the damage in the critical pipeline. MGL advised its industrial and commercial customers in the affected areas to "switch to alternate fuel".
India’s Petronet LNG to get 500k tonnes LNG from Exxon in 2026 under new deal
7 November: India's top gas importer Petronet LNG will receive 500,000 tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2026 in its 1.2 million tonnes per year (mtpa) supply deal with ExxonMobil from Australia’s Gorgon project. Petronet already imports 1.42 mtpa of LNG from the Gorgon project, in which ExxonMobil has a stake, under a separate long-term contract with the US (United States) oil major. The first cargo under the new 15-year deal, which was agreed in 2017, is expected to arrive between March and April next year. ExxonMobil will deliver about eight cargoes to Petronet in 2026. The volumes will gradually increase over three years to 20 cargoes annually, equivalent to 1.2 million tons per year. Indian companies are investing in their gas infrastructure as the country aims to raise the share of natural gas in its energy mix to 15 percent by 2030 from the current 6.2 percent. Petronet plans to complete the expansion of its Dahej LNG import terminal in western India to 22.5 mtpa by March 2026. It operates a 5 mtpa LNG terminal at Kochi in southern India and is building a new 4 mtpa plant at Gopalpur in easter Odisha state.
India’s coal imports rise 14 percent in September
16 November: The country’s coal import surged by 13.54 percent to 22.05 million tonnes (MT) in September, driven by increased demand of the dry fuel ahead of the festive season. Imports in September recorded a notable rise from 19.42 MT of coal imported during the same month of the previous financial year. Breaking down the numbers, non-coking coal import stood at 13.90 MT for the month, slightly higher than the 13.24 MT imported in September 2024.
CIL aims to meet FY26 coal production target: CMD
9 November: Amid lowered demand and an extended monsoon that slumped coal production, Coal India Limited (CIL) is hopeful of meeting its production target in the current fiscal year. CIL’s chairman-cum-managing director (CMD) Sanoj Kumar Jha, said that despite missing its production target in the last two months, CIL will aspire to reach its production target of 875 million tonnes (MT) in the current fiscal year or at least reach close to the figure. CIL, which accounts for over 80 percent of domestic coal output, has a production target of 875 MT and a dispatch target of 900 MT for the 2025-26 fiscal year. While CIL’s production declined 9.8 percent to 56.4 MT in October, in September the output of the firm dropped to 48.97 MT. Jha said that in the next six months, regulations on the proposed coal exchange will be in place.
Gujarat unveils smart digital portal to transform and automate power distribution systems
17 November: Gujarat’s energy ministry has unveiled a new digital portal aimed at modernizing the state’s electricity distribution system. The initiative focuses on enhancing operational efficiency through increased automation. By integrating multiple utility functions on a single platform, the portal aims to simplify processes and improve service delivery. The launch marks a major step toward smarter energy management in the state. The portal is designed to support seamless monitoring of power distribution activities. Real-time data insights will help utilities respond quickly to system irregularities. This capability is crucial for maintaining supply stability across urban and rural regions. Automated alerts are expected to reduce downtime significantly. The system brings transparency to daily operations.
Adani Group to invest INR630 bn in two major power projects in Assam
15 November: The Adani Group will invest about INR630 billion in Assam to build major power projects, including the Northeast’s largest private coal-fired plant, and new pumped-storage facilities. The conglomerate run by billionaire Gautam Adani said its energy companies have received Letters of Award from the state government for two large power projects in Assam.
7-year tariff shock loom for power consumers over discoms dues recovery
14 November: Power consumers are in for tariff jolts over the next seven years as state regulators will begin raising charges after the Supreme Court extended the period for clearing accumulated regulatory assets -- revenue gaps recognised as recoverable dues -- of distribution companies (discoms). Regulatory assets are a bane of India’s discoms, which create a negative domino effect, including default on payments to generators and rising debt in the system. Regulatory assets start with discoms claiming a gap between the existing tariff and rising costs. Instead of increasing the tariff to cover the gap, regulators allow discoms to recover the gap in future, giving rise to regulatory assets. Discoms show the assets as receivables in their books but are rendered cash-strapped. This forces them to borrow, which pushes up interest burden and impacts ability to expand or modernise.
UPPCL announces relief scheme for over 14 mn electricity bill defaulters
12 November: To tackle mounting unpaid electricity dues across the state, the Uttar Pradesh Power Corporation Limited (UPPCL) has rolled out the Electricity Bill Relief Scheme 2025 to provide financial relief to over 14.5 million consumers who have defaulted on bill payment. According to officials, there are a total of 17.1 million defaulters of whom 14.5 million fall in the categories to which the benefits of the scheme are being extended. The scheme targets two key consumer categories – ‘Never Paid Consumers' (over 54.12 lakh) and ‘Long Unpaid Consumers' (over 91.45 lakh). Long Unpaid Consumers have been defined as those who haven't paid bills since the beginning of the current financial year. The scheme has been structured around a three-phase registration window — first from 1-31 December 2025, second from 1-31 January 2026, and the final phase from 1-28 February 2026. Eligible consumers include those under LMV-1 (domestic) up to 2 kilowatt (kW) and LMV-2 (commercial) up to 1 kW. To enroll, consumers will have to pay registration fee of INR2,000, after which they can choose from three payment options – one-time full payment, monthly installment of INR750 and monthly installment of INR500. All registered consumers will get a 100 percent waiver on late payment surcharge. Those going in for one-time payment will get discount of 25 percent in Phase 1, 20 percent in Phase 2, and 15 percent in Phase 3.
Punjab relaxes norms for new power connections under 50 kW category
10 November: Punjab Power Minister Sanjeev Arora announced a simplified procedure under which applicants for new connections or load alterations up to 50 kilowatt (kW), in the LT (low tension) category, would no longer be required to submit a test report from a licensed electrical contractor or provide self-certification for the wiring at their premises. Instead, a declaration within the online application form confirming the internal wiring at the premises was executed and tested by a licensed electrical contractor or designated government officer and that a test certificate is available with the applicant will suffice, he said. He said over 99.5 percent of Punjab State Power Corporation Limited (PSPCL) connections (excluding agricultural power) fall into this category.
TNPDCL signs 11 power deals to procure 1.5 GW
7 November: To meet the rising electricity demand, the Tamil Nadu Power Distribution Corporation Limited (TNPDCL) has entered into Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with 11 power companies to procure a total of 1,580 megawatt (MW) of electricity. Among these, Vedanta Limited has secured the highest share of 500 MW through its two thermal power units — Meenakshi Energy Limited (MEL) in Andhra Pradesh and Vedanta Limited Chhattisgarh Thermal Power Plant (VLCTPP). MEL will supply 300 MW, while VLCTPP will contribute 200 MW. The tariff has been fixed at Rs 5.38 per unit, and the five-year agreement will come into effect from 2 February 2026, lasting till 31 January 2031.
Madhya Pradesh launches Samadhan Yojana to recover INR120 bn in electricity dues
6 November: The Madhya Pradesh government has launched the Samadhan Yojana 2025–26, a one-time settlement scheme to recover INR120 billion in pending electricity dues from around 9.2 million defaulting power consumers. The scheme offers waivers of up to 90 percent on surcharge penalties for domestic and agricultural users, and up to 80 percent for non-domestic and industrial users, based on early lump-sum payment. Consumers paying before 31 December, 2025, will receive maximum relief. The initiative targets INR80 billion in principal recovery while waiving INR38 billion in surcharges to improve discom (distribution company) liquidity without resorting to mass disconnections.
Delhi's BRPL to enhance power supply with new grid-scale battery storage systems
5 November: Delhi Electricity Regulatory Commission (DERC) has given its in-principle nod to BSES Rajdhani Power Limited (BRPL) to set up four grid-scale battery energy storage systems across south and southwest Delhi to ensure uninterrupted power supply during peak demand hours. The project will add a combined storage capacity of 55.5 megawatt (MW) at grid locations in Malviya Nagar, Matiala, Dwarka and Goyla Khurd. The systems are expected to improve supply reliability. These storage systems enhance network utilisation and relieve the stress on congested feeders. They store electricity in rechargeable batteries for use when demand rises or generation dips. BRPL, a joint venture of Reliance Infrastructure and Delhi government, supplies electricity to over 32 lakh consumers across south and west Delhi, covering more than 700 square kilometre and serving over 10 million residents. In May, the first such storage system was commissioned at Kilokari to provide up to four hours of power daily — two hours each in the day and at night.
Maharashtra becomes first state in country to sign up for nuclear power generation
17 November: Maharashtra became the first state in the country to participate in nuclear power generation after the Maharashtra State Power Generation Company Ltd (MAHAGENCO) signed an MoU with Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd (NPCIL) in the presence of Chief Minister (CM) Devendra Fadnavis. The CM said until now, the nuclear energy sector was primarily the domain of the Central government. The CM stressed that this MoU is timely and highly important, as clean energy is the most crucial fuel for data centres. The country currently operates 25 nuclear reactors across seven locations with an installed capacity of 8,880 megawatt (MW). Eight more reactors are under construction, including a 500 MW Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor. Plans are underway for 10 additional reactors totaling 7,000 MW. The central government has provisioned INR200 billion for the development of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).
Ujjain-Shajapur region set to be hub for green energy
17 November: The Ujjain-Shajapur region is likely to transform into a new powerhouse for green energy and solar equipment manufacturing in the state. Chief Minister Mohan Yadav ushered in the new era of industrial growth and green energy for the Malwa region after he performed foundation-laying ceremony and inauguration of six industrial units in Shajapur district, representing a combined investment of approximately INR81.74 billion. Yadav said that the Ujjain-Shajapur region, known for its soft culture and fertile land was now poised to become a central hub for green energy. The foundation stone was laid for the construction unit of M/s Jackson Integrated Solar Ltd that will come up with an investment of INR71.04 billion. The unit is scheduled to be operational by July 2026.
TNGECL to push farmers to go solar, sell power at 3.10 per unit
16 November: The Tamil Nadu Green Energy Corporation Ltd (TNGECL) is set to purchase 420 megawatt (MW) of solar power from farmers, village panchayats, and cooperative societies. This follows the Tamil Nadu Electricity Regulatory Commission (TNERC) giving its nod to float tenders inviting them to sell power from solar plants set up under the PM-Kusum scheme at 3.10 per unit. Under the PM-Kusum scheme, farmers can set up solar plants on their barren land and sell the power generated to distribution companies. Though the Union ministry of new and renewable energy sanctioned 424 MW to Tamil Nadu under the PM-Kusum scheme until Dec 2025, the state implemented only 2 MW.
ReNew to invest INR600 bn in Andhra Pradesh in multiple green energy projects
13 November: ReNew Energy Global Plc (ReNew) said it will invest INR600 billion (US$6.7 billion) to set up green energy projects in Andhra Pradesh, raising its total commitment in the state to INR820 billion (US$9.3 billion). The decarbonisation solutions company had in May said it will invest INR220 billion (US$2.5 billion) in Andhra Pradesh to set up one of India’s largest hybrid renewable energy projects. The company will set up a 6 gigawatt (GW) PV ingot-wafer plant, a 2 GW pumped hydro project, a 300 kilotonne per annum green ammonia facility, and 5 GW of hybrid projects. ReNew’s hybrid renewable energy project in Anantapur district will have a generation capacity of around 2.8 GW, including 1.8 GW solar and 1 GW wind, and a battery energy storage system of 2 gigawatt hour (GWh). It will be one of the largest renewable energy projects at one place in India. ReNew has an operating portfolio of 717 megawatt (MW) of operational wind capacity and 60 MW of solar capacity spread over 10 sites in Andhra Pradesh. The company said that with the latest announcement, it will generate more than 10,000 direct and indirect jobs. It will work with the Andhra government towards the state’s target of generating 78.5 GW of solar, 35 GW of wind power capacity, and 25 GWh of battery energy storage.
Rajasthan launches largest solar park with battery storage in Bikaner
8 November: The state government launched Pugal Solar Park, coming up in Bikaner, in the presence of investors in the city. The project, touted as the largest solar power generation and storage facility in the country, combines 2,450 megawatt (MW) of solar generation with 5,000 MWh of battery energy storage systems (BESS). Designed to provide peak-hour power supply to consumers in the state, the park, spread over 4,353 hectares of government-leased land, will come up in Pugal tehsil of Bikaner district.
India’s solar boom could create a INR37 bn recycling market in 2047: CEEW
6 November: Recovering and reusing materials from discarded solar panels could be a INR37 billion worth market opportunity in 2047, according to a pair of new independent studies released by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). The studies highlight that, if this potential is realised, recovering valuable materials such as silicon, copper, aluminium, and silver from solar waste could meet 38 percent of the sector’s manufacturing inputs in 2047 and avoid 37 million tonnes of carbon emissions by replacing virgin resources with recycled ones. India’s solar module recycling market is currently at a very nascent stage, with only a few commercial recyclers operating. The twin CEEW studies provide India's first comprehensive blueprint for building a domestic solar recycling ecosystem that supports both clean energy and manufacturing self-reliance. By 2047, India’s installed solar capacity could generate over 11 million tonnes of solar waste, largely from crystalline-silicon modules. Managing this would require nearly 300 recycling plants across the country and INR42 billion in investment, the studies estimate.
CERC’s tighter green power regulations may hit clean energy investments
5 November: India’s planned rules requiring renewable producers to strictly adhere to their promised green energy supply to the grid would squeeze company earnings and slow investment in the sector, a review of industry letters showed. The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC), in its draft published in September 2025, proposed tighter regulations for wind and solar power producers under the Deviation Settlement Mechanism. The new framework aims to gradually narrow the permissible gap between the amount of electricity producers commit to supply and what they actually generate.
Haryana announces deferment of power bills for flood-hit farmers
5 November: Haryana government has announced a special scheme to provide relief to farmers affected by heavy rain and floods during the 2025 monsoon. Under this scheme, the payment of electricity bills for all agricultural tubewell consumers in the state, for the period from July 2025 to December 2025, has been deferred for six months. The state power department informed that the electricity bills issued in July 2025 will be payable in January 2026. Similarly, the August bills will be payable in February 2026, and the Dec bills will be payable in June 2026. This decision will benefit approximately 7.10 lakh agricultural consumers across the state.
China stockpiles more crude in October as oil prices moderate
18 November: China’s flows of crude oil into storage likely lifted in October as robust imports and domestic output outweighed an increase in refinery processing. China’s surplus of crude oil was about 690,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October, up from about 570,000 bpd in September. The rate at which China has been adding to inventories is increasingly being seen as a key factor in crude oil demand in the world's biggest importer, as well as adding a layer of uncertainty into price forecasts. China’s refineries processed 14.94 million bpd in October, an increase of 6.4 percent from the same month last year, although down from the two-year high of 15.26 million bpd in September, according to the National Bureau of Statistics data. Crude imports were 11.39 million bpd in October while domestic production was 4.24 million bpd, giving a combined total of 15.63 million bpd of oil available to refiners. Subtracting the refinery processing from the total crude available leaves 690,000 bpd that was available to be added to commercial or strategic storages. China does not disclose the volumes of crude flowing into or out of its strategic and commercial stockpiles, but an estimate can be made by deducting the amount of oil processed from the total crude available from imports and domestic output.
Goldman Sachs sees oil prices falling through 2026 on supply surge
17 November: Oil prices are expected to decline through 2026, Goldman Sachs said, citing a production surge that will keep the market in a large surplus of around 2 million barrels per day (bpd). The bank forecast Brent crude will average US$56 a barrel and WTI (West Texas Intermediate) US$52 in 2026, below current forward curves of US$63 and US$60. Goldman Sachs expects prices to rebound from 2027 as low 2025–2026 prices weigh on non-OPEC production and very few new projects come online after 15 years of underinvestment. In 2026/2027, Brent crude could fall into the US$40s if non-OPEC supply proves more resilient than expected or if the global economy enters a recession, but could rise above $70 a barrel if Russian supply declines more sharply, Goldman Sachs said.
Indonesia’s Pertamina sees higher demand for some fuel products, aims to cover with imports
17 November: Indonesia’s state energy firm Pertamina is seeing higher demand for some of its gasoline products and aims to cover some supply requirements with imports. Demand for Pertamina’s 98-octane fuel has risen 76 percent this year, while stock of its 90-octane fuel is currently at a safe level, but slightly below the company’s target, Mars Ega Legowo Putra, chief executive of Pertamina Patra Niaga said. A cargo for the 98-octane fuel is already on the way to Indonesia, he said. Up to October 2025, Pertamina recorded 87 million kilolitres of total fuel sales for both retail and industry customers, company data showed.
OPEC shifts oil outlook to see small surplus in 2026
12 November: The world oil market will see a small surplus in 2026 after OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus) production increases and higher supply from other producers, an OPEC report showed, a further shift from its earlier projections of a deficit. The OPEC+ group comprising the OPEC, Russia and other allies plans to pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026 after widespread predictions of oversupply. OPEC said that OPEC+ pumped 43.02 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, down 73,000 bpd from September despite the output increase agreement for the month, led by a drop in Kazakhstan. OPEC lowered its 2026 demand forecast for OPEC+ crude by 100,000 bpd from the previous projection after an upward revision to its 2025 estimates for production outside OPEC+.
Saudi crude oil price cut is just enough to stay competitive
11 November: The decision by Saudi Aramco to cut the price of its crude oil for Asian refiners for December cargoes has been viewed as a move to build market share amid concerns of looming global oversupply. But the reduction was at the lower end of forecasts by Asian refiners and seems more of a move to keep Saudi oil just competitive enough against other grades, while also giving the world's biggest crude exporter flexibility should China and India shun Russian barrels amid US (United States) sanctions. Aramco lowered its official selling price (OSP) for its benchmark Arab Light grade for Asian customers to a premium of US$1 a barrel over the Oman/Dubai average for December-loading cargoes. Asian refiners forecast that Aramco would drop the OSP for Arab Light by between US$1.20 and US$1.50 a barrel in a survey. The premium of cash Dubai crude to swaps has been trending lower in recent weeks, averaging US$1.12 a barrel so far this month, down from US$1.73 in September.
Canada’s Enbridge to plan second phase of Mainline oil pipeline expansion
7 November: Canada’s Enbridge said it plans early next year to formally gauge commercial interest in a second phase of capacity expansion on its Mainline crude pipeline network. The Calgary, Canada-based pipeline operator said if the project goes ahead, it could add 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) of additional capacity on the Mainline by 2028, helping to meet rising demand for export access from Canadian oil shippers. The project would be in addition to a planned first phase of expansion, on which the company expects to make a final investment decision before the end of the year. The first phase would add 150,000 bpd of capacity and be placed into service by 2027, Enbridge said. Canada’s oil sands industry has shown resilience during the global oil industry downturn, buoyed by years of investment that have made it among the lowest-cost basins in North America. Canadian oil production hit a record high of 5.1 million bpd on average last year, and Enbridge is forecasting the country will see 500,000 to 600,000 bpd of supply growth by the end of the decade. The Canadian government is in talks with the oil-producing province of Alberta, which wants to see a new crude pipeline built in tandem with a massive carbon capture and storage project aimed at lowering emissions from the oil sands.
Kazakhstan’s October oil output down 10 percent from September
5 November: Kazakhstan’s crude oil production excluding gas condensate declined 10 percent last month to 1.69 million barrels per day (bpd), still above the OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus) output quota. The Central Asian republic has repeatedly exceeded quotas set by the OPEC+ group comprising the OPEC and other producers led by Russia, angering some OPEC members. Kazakhstan’s OPEC+ output quota for October stood at 1.556 million bpd. Output declined largely because of maintenance at its largest oilfield, the Tengiz field operated by US (United States) oil major Chevron’s, Tengizchevroil. Kazakhstan’s total output of crude oil and gas condensate, a type of light oil, fell to 8.016 million metric tonnes in October, down from 8.345 million tonnes in September.
Syria signs gas cooperation deal with ConocoPhillips and Novaterra
18 November: The Syrian Petroleum Company, US-based ConocoPhillips and Novaterra have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to expand cooperation in the natural gas sector, Syria’s energy ministry said. Due to the destruction of energy infrastructure during its 14-year civil war, Syria produces just a fraction of the electricity it needs, though the supply of power has improved notably in recent months thanks to gas from Azerbaijan and Qatar. The ministry said the MoU covered the development of existing gas fields and exploration of new ones using updated technical and technological standards, with the aim of increasing domestic output and strengthening energy security. The deal comes amid the Syrian government’s pledge to ramp up power supply. Syria’s domestic natural gas production is estimated to have declined to 3 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2023 from 8.7 bcm in 2011 due to the war.
Ukraine’s DTEK imports its first US LNG via Lithuania
18 November: Ukrainian energy company DTEK has imported its first cargo of US (United States) liquefied natural gas (LNG) via Lithuania’s Klaipeda import terminal in an effort to strengthen energy security for Ukraine and other Eastern European countries, it said. DTEK’s trading arm imported the cargo from the Plaquemines plant in Louisiana aboard the GasLog Houston, delivering the equivalent of roughly 100 million cubic meters, or 1 terawatt hour (TWh), of natural gas, it said. The plan is to deliver the gas to Ukraine, Baltic countries, Poland and other Eastern European markets, the company said. Ukraine alone needs to import about 4 billion cubic meters (bcm) this winter after Russian attacks on its gas production and storage infrastructure, the company estimated. Russia intensified strikes on Ukraine’s gas sector in October, depriving Ukraine of at least half of its own gas production. DTEK said it is also negotiating to import further US cargoes via Lithuania and Greece as Europe strives to phase out Russian gas supplies by the end of 2027. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced imports of US LNG via Greece this winter in a deal involving Greek gas company DEPA and Ukrainian state energy firm Naftogaz.
Cheniere sees US LNG plants using 40 bcfd of natural gas in coming years
14 November: United States (US) liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants could take on as much as 40 bcfd (billion cubic feet per day) of natural gas in coming years, Cheniere Energy chief commercial officer Anatol Feygin said. US plants are currently using a record 18 bcfd of natural gas to produce LNG, according to financial firm LSEG data. The increased demand for liquefaction could lead to natural gas prices, which have risen around 62 percent over the past year, becoming even more expensive toward the end of the decade, he said. The world will need to add 30 million metric tonnes of LNG every year to meet global demand growth, with most of the new capacity coming from the US, he said. Rising construction costs have driven some of the recent final investment decisions in US LNG, he said.
Italy’s Snam scraps German gas deal amid Berlin’s concern over China
14 November: Italian gas grid operator Snam said it has scrapped plans to acquire a minority stake in Germany’s largest independent gas transmission firm, amid resistance from the German economy ministry. Berlin’s concerns over the €920 million (US$1.1 billion) transaction stem from the presence of China’s State Grid as an indirect investor in Snam. The Italian group signed a deal in April to buy a 24.99 percent stake in Open Grid Europe’s owner Vier Gas Holding from Abu Dhabi’s Infinity Investments, aiming to enter the German gas market, the biggest in Europe.
Japan to step up LNG purchases for emergency reserve from January
7 November: Japan, the world’s No.2 LNG importer, plans to buy LNG (liquefied natural gas) for emergency reserves on a monthly basis from January, instead of buying only during peak demand periods, to guard against supply shocks. The reinforcement of the country’s Strategic Buffer LNG (SBL) program, run by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), will ensure at least one LNG cargo - about 70,000 metric tons - is secured each month to mitigate supply risks. For the year, that means Japan will buy at least 12 cargoes, or 840,000 tonnes of LNG, for its emergency reserve, up from about 210,000 tonnes in each of the past two years. Japan is expanding its role as an LNG trader as domestic demand declines, selling excess cargoes abroad during periods of weak local consumption. Since December 2023, JERA, Japan’s top LNG buyer and a certified SBL supplier, has bought one cargo for each of the three winter months over the past two winters to add to the reserve, although it was never activated. From 2026, JERA will buy at least one SBL cargo for every month, from January to December.
Greece signs first long-term deal to supply Europe with US LNG
7 November: Greece agreed to import 700 million cubic meters of US (United States) liquefied natural gas (LNG) per year starting in 2030 in its first long-term deal with Washington, which seeks to replace Russian supplies to Europe. The 20-year deal aims to boost US LNG exports from Greece to its northern European neighbours including Ukraine and comes weeks after the European Union (EU) approved a ban on Russian LNG from 2027 over its war in Ukraine.
LNG Canada begins production at second unit
6 November: LNG Canada has started production of LNG (liquefied natural gas) at the second of its two processing units, known as Train 2, the company said. Both trains at the Shell-led project in Kitimat, British Columbia - each with a capacity of 6.5 million metric tonnes per annum - are operational. LNG Canada is the first major LNG export facility in Canada and the first on the west coast of North America that provides direct access to Asia, the world’s largest market for the liquid fuel. When fully operational, the facility is expected to process about two billion cubic feet of gas per day. LNG Canada, which took almost seven years to build, shipped its first cargo on 30 June. However, technical challenges have made the ramp-up slower than many analysts expected. A 22nd LNG cargo departed the LNG Canada facility for export to global markets.
Poland in talks to import more LNG from US to supply Ukraine, Slovakia
5 November: Poland is working on a deal to import LNG (liquefied natural gas) from the US (United States) to supply Ukraine and Slovakia, an agreement that would further tighten the European Union (EU)’s ties to American energy. The EU put forward new plans to end its purchases of Russian oil and gas last month, with a fresh package of sanctions that bans Russian LNG imports by 2027. Some EU member states still buy Russian energy, while also supporting Ukraine in the war. Slovakia and Hungary try to balance being allies of Washington and importing Russian energy, which has drawn criticism from US President Donald Trump. The EU’s use of LNG has climbed to historic highs this year, with the US currently supplying about 55 percent of its supply, up from 27 percent in 2021. Fully replacing all Russian gas imports with American LNG would raise this to over 80 percent.
Vitol, Delfin LNG and IRH sign 20-year LNG supply agreement
5 November: Vitol said International Resources Holding (IRH) has signed a 20-year agreement with Delfin LNG and Vitol for the purchase and sale of 1.0 million tonnes per annum of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Delfin’s US-based export facility. Under the terms of the deal, Delfin LNG will supply LNG on a free-on-board basis to Vitol, which will act as the offtaker, delivering volumes to IRH Global Trading, IRH’s trading arm. Vitol is one of the world's largest independent energy traders, while Delfin LNG specializes in US export infrastructure. International Resources Holding is a mine-to-market platform and subsidiary of ePointZero.
EU approves US$2 bn subsidy for German coal exit
18 November: The European Commission said that it has approved a 1.75 billion euros (US$2.03 billion) compensation payment from Germany to power company LEAG for exiting coal by 2038. As part of its efforts to become climate neutral by 2045, Germany’s government in 2020 agreed to shut coal-fired power plants by 2038. It agreed with LEAG on the compensation amount, pending EU (European Union) approval.
Six US states to watch as rising gas prices drive a coal comeback
13 November: A jump in natural gas costs has spurred several United States (US) utilities to lift coal power output and cut back on gas-fired generation so far this year, reversing a years-long trend of lower coal use and emissions in the country. While the trend has been a national phenomenon, six states - Arkansas, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, South Carolina and Wisconsin - will play a more prominent role in determining the future trajectory of US coal use if natural gas prices keep climbing. Total US coal-fired electricity production through the opening seven months of the year increased by around 16 percent from the year before, Ember data shows, reflecting the broadly higher coal use across the country.
US data center demand raising power risks this winter
18 November: Rising power demand driven by data centers is shrinking US (United States) electricity supplies and increasing the risk of energy shortages if extreme winter weather strikes this year, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation said. The swift proliferation of data centers in the US, along with the electrification of buildings and transportation, is driving up electricity use across the country faster than new power supplies are added to the grid. That dwindling supply can raise the possibility of power shortfalls in extremely cold weather, when energy-intensive heating systems increase overall demand.
Blackstone to invest US$1.2 bn in power generation facility in West Virginia
13 November: Blackstone said its unit would invest about US$1.2 billion to build a power plant in West Virginia, as the asset manager steps up efforts to meet surging electricity demand from artificial intelligence and industrial growth. Utilities and large investors have scaled up funding to build new power capacity as they seek to meet the growing demand from data centers. The 600 megawatt (MW) combined-cycle natural gas plant, called Wolf Summit Energy project, in Harrison County will supply power to Old Dominion Electric Cooperative, which serves about 1.5 million residents across Virginia, Maryland and Delaware.
Dominican Republic begins restoring power after nationwide blackout
11 November: Officials in the Dominican Republic said they had restored some of the country’s electricity supply after a nationwide outage earlier in the day. The national power system was being gradually restored following a failure at the San Pedro I substation, which triggered the blackout, the state power company said. Power has already been restored in parts of Santiago, San Cristobal, Santo Domingo Norte and southern areas of the country. Electricity sector authorities said some public transportation services had resumed in parts of the capital and were operating free of charge.
Mitsubishi Power to supply equipment for Vietnam fuel conversion project
5 November: Mitsubishi Power, a subsidiary of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, said that it would supply equipment to a power project in Vietnam that will convert an oil-fired plant to a natural gas-fired facility. The Japanese company will upgrade equipment at the O Mon 1 Thermal Power Plant in Can Tho, Southern Vietnam, as part of a fuel conversion project aimed at reducing emissions and allowing it to meet stricter environmental regulations in the future, Mitsubishi Power said. The plant has two units with a capacity of 330 megawatt (MW) each. The fuel conversion project is being conducted by Power Generation Corp 2, part of Vietnam Electricity Corp Group. Mitsubishi Power is also supplying two gas turbines for the neighbouring O Mon 4 Thermal Power project, which has a capacity of 1,155 MW and is scheduled for completion in 2028.
HoloSolis raises US$255 mn to help build solar panel factory in France
18 November: French company HoloSolis has raised more than €220 million (US$255 million) in financing to help fund construction of a solar panel factory it says will be among the largest of its kind in Europe. Solar energy is crucial to European plans to use more environmentally friendly sources of energy and make the region less dependent on Russian energy. The European Union’s expansion of solar energy was on track for its first annual slowdown in more than a decade, data showed. The HoloSolis project in Sarreguemines-Hambach is due to become fully operational by 2030, with the aim of producing enough power for one million homes. The project is expected to generate 2,000 direct jobs and reach production capacity of 5 gigawatt (GW) per year.
Kuwait invites bids for new 0.5-GW solar project in latest tender
16 November: Kuwait has opened the bidding for a new 0.5 gigawatt (GW) solar project, aimed at expanding clean power generation in the Gulf state, by inviting pre-qualified consortia to submit proposals. Kuwait’s second such tender this year covers the Al Dibdibah Power and Al Shagaya Renewable Energy Phase III, a Zone 2 Solar PV Independent Power Project, the Kuwait Authority for Partnership Projects said.
TotalEnergies agrees renewable power deal with Google for Ohio data centres
12 November: TotalEnergies has agreed a 15-year power purchase deal to supply Alphabet’s Google with 1.5 terawatt hours of renewable electricity from its Montpelier solar farm in Ohio, the French company said. The solar facility, which is nearing completion, is connected to the PJM grid, the largest in the United States, and will help power Google’s data centre operations in the state, it said.
Qcells furloughs 1,000 workers at US solar factories due to stalled shipments
7 November: Qcells, the US (United States) solar manufacturing arm of Korea’s Hanwha, said it would furlough 1,000 workers at its Georgia factories because shipments of components it needs from overseas are being routinely stalled by US customs officials. The announcement comes months after the company said some of its shipments of solar cells had been detained at US ports under a 2021 law banning imports from China’s Xinjiang region due to concerns about forced labor. Qcells has committed to investing US$2.5 billion to build a complete US solar panel supply chain to compete with China. The company manufactures cells in Malaysia and South Korea that are imported to be assembled into panels. It is also ramping up its US cell manufacturing in Cartersville, Georgia.
Australia’s clean power push hits pivotal energy transition milestone
6 November: Australian utilities generated more electricity from clean power sources than from fossil fuels for the first time ever last month, marking a major energy transition milestone for one of the world’s top coal and gas exporters. Utility-supplied electricity output from clean power sources hit 9.88 terawatt hours (TWh) in October, energy think tank Ember data shows, which exceeded the 9.82 TWh generated by all fossil fuels. The energy mix breakthrough is due to a 77 percent surge in Australia’s clean power output from five years ago, as well as a 15 percent reduction in fossil fuel use over that period. Generation of coal-fired power - which remains Australia’s largest electricity source - also hit record lows last month, helping to slash power sector carbon dioxide emissions so far this year by 13.5 million metric tonnes compared to a year ago. Australia’s clean generation levels look set to keep climbing over the southern hemisphere summer, which may help cement 2025 as a critical threshold when clean energy output Down Under first surpasses fossil fuels in the utility mix.
German utility Uniper sells hydropower for 2026, 2027 as part of hedging strategy
6 November: German utility Uniper has sold sizeable quantities of its future hydropower and nuclear output as part of its hedging strategy, the company said. Uniper has sold 40 percent of its German hydropower output for 2026 at an average price of €92 (US$107.29) per megawatt hour (MWh) and 60 percent of the output in 2027 at an average of €86 per MWh, it said. The discrepancies come from different fuel elements at the overall wholesale level, that also reflect gas and coal power, and the impact of support schemes and volatile weather patterns for hydropower generally. The company operates coal, gas-fired and nuclear plants as well as wind and solar power generation units elsewhere in Europe that were not reflected in the slides. Regarding Nordic region prices, Uniper said it sold 60 percent of nuclear and hydropower for 2026 and 35 percent of output for 2027 at average prices of €37 per MWh and €38 per MWh respectively, having achieved €38 for 95 percent of 2025 output so far, and €43 in 2024.
This is a weekly publication of the Observer Research Foundation (ORF). It covers current national and international information on energy categorised systematically to add value. The year 2025 is the twenty-second continuous year of publication of the newsletter. The newsletter is registered with the Registrar of News Paper for India under No. DELENG / 2004 / 13485.
Disclaimer: Information in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and has been compiled, adapted and edited from reliable sources. ORF does not accept any liability for errors therein. News material belongs to respective owners and is provided here for wider dissemination only. Opinions are those of the authors (ORF Energy Team).
Publisher: Baljit Kapoor
Editorial Adviser: Lydia Powell
Editor: Akhilesh Sati
Content Development: Vinod Kumar
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
PREV
