According to the medium variant scenario of the UN World Population Prospectus 2024, the world’s population is expected to continue growing over the next 50-60 years, reaching a peak of around 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024. After peaking, the global population is projected to start declining gradually, falling to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century. The probability of the world population peaking by 2100 is estimated to be about 80 percent.
Of all the people currently being added to the world, 95 percent live in the Global South. At the beginning of this century 70 percent of the world population resided in the South. That figure is expected to rise to 90 percent by 2050. The demographic and energy transitions in the Global South, and in India in particular, are not only much larger, but it is quicker, and most importantly, occurring at much lower income levels than the transitions in the Global North. This may compromise prospects for energy consumption and, consequently human development in India even by 2070.
The population of India is projected to remain the world’s largest through 2100, and reach a peak in the early 2060s at about 1.7 billion, under the medium variant scenario. India is projected to contribute most to the urban increment, with the addition of 416 million urban dwellers, nearly doubling the size of its urban population by 2050. India has committed to achieve net zero by 2070. During this period, the World population is likely to increase by 25 percent, while the population of the Global North is likely to fall by 4 percent (medium variant scenario). The population of the Global South is projected to increase by 30 percent, and the population of India is expected to increase by 17 percent. By 2070, India’s population is projected to touch 1.69 billion, with the addition of 250 million people. Life expectancy at birth for Indians is projected to increase from about 72 years in 2024 (world average 73) to about 81 years in 2070 (world average: 79). The average fertility rate (live births per woman) is expected to fall from about 1.98 (world average: 2.25) in 2024 to 1.72 (word average: 1.97) in 2070. Population density is expected to increase from about 488 persons per square kilometre (persons/km2) in 2024 (world average: 63 persons/km2) to over 568 persons/km2 in 2070 (world average: 78 persons/km2). The median age of the population in India is expected to increase from 24.4 years in 2024 (world average: 30.6 years) to 43.6 years in 2070 (world average: 39 years). For India, most of the demographic features improve in the next four decades, favouring higher levels of human development.
If commercial (not including biomass) energy consumption per person increases by 3.2 percent per year in India (rate of increase in 2013-23), by 2070 per person commercial energy consumption will increase from 27.3 gigajoules (GJ) to about 116 GJ, just short of China’s per person energy consumption in 2023. This would mean that total primary energy consumption will increase 5 times from the current consumption of 39.2 exajoules (EJ). However, a recent study supported by Government institutions observes that high Human Development Index (HDI) can be achieved by increasing India’s annual per person energy consumption of 27.3 GJ in 2023 to 29 GJ, and achieve very high HDI at an annual per person energy consumption of 37 GJ. Specifically, the study concludes that achieving high HDI of 0.7 would require annual per person energy consumption of 31 GJ, while achieving a HDI of 0.8 would require annual per person energy consumption of 39 GJ, and achievement of an HDI of 0.9 (highest so far) would require annual per person energy consumption of 56 GJ. This means that even if total primary energy consumption (TPEC) grows at just 1.2 percent annually, HDI can be increased to 0.7 by 2047. If TPEC grows at an annual average of about 2.2 percent, a high HDI of 0.8 can be achieved by 2047, and if it grows by an annual average of about 3.9 percent, very high HDI of 0.9 can be achieved by 2047, much earlier than the net-zero commitment year of 2070. The corelation between energy consumption and HDI is ambiguous. India, Bangladesh and Morocco were all in the medium HDI category in 2022. Morocco had roughly the same per person energy consumption as India but a higher HDI . Bangladesh, whose per person energy consumption was only half that of India, also had higher HDI than India. Venezuela’s per person energy consumption was more than 3.5 times that of Morocco, but both countries have the same HDI.
Given that in 2013-2023, TPEC grew by 4.2 percent annually, it appears that TPCE growth required for achieving a very high HDI by 2047 is well within reach. However, the above cited study appears to have set the bar of per person energy consumption level required for high HDI very low. The global average per person energy consumption in 2023 was much higher at 77 GJ, and the per person energy consumption of most countries with very high HDI was above 100 GJ in 2023.
The increasing share of urbanisation, along with the rise in population density in India, will facilitate electrification of energy consumption by 2070. The cost of providing electricity supply to dense urban households will be lower than that in the case of dispersed rural households. In a scenario where most households have autonomous energy supply from solar panels, dense urban households will enable electricity trade between households and other buildings. However, the increase in the median age of the population may reduce energy affordability. Energy demand from an aging population may grow faster than demand from a younger population, especially on account of energy required for space heating and cooling at the household level. But, the ability to pay for energy may decline as the dependency ratio, dependents per worker, may increase. Climate change may aggravate the extent of the challenge.
According to detailed analysis, the Global North has experienced slow and steady demographic change since the 1700s. In the initial stage, both birth and death rates were high, causing only slow and steady population growth. Death rates began to decline due to three factors, all of which concerned greater levels of production and consumption. The first was the trade revolution, which introduced potato and maize from the Americas to Europe. The second was the agricultural revolution, which led higher yields of food production through a variety of agricultural practices. The third was the industrial revolution, which increased goods available for consumption. The introduction of fossil fuels reduced transportation costs and substantially increased the productivity of human labour, capital and agricultural land which facilitated growth of population in the Global North. Major medical breakthroughs reduced death rates, while birth rates continued to be high, resulting in faster population growth. The demographic transition that is currently occurring in the Global South is following the similar course but from a much larger base – more than two-thirds of the world population - resulting in unprecedented growth rates in population. Between 1960 and 2023, it only took 12-15 years for the world’s total population to increase by 1 billion, while it took over 120 years for the population to increase by 1 billion between 1800 and 1920.
The rapid expansion of trade in the second phase of the industrial revolution played a significant role in the timing of demographic transitions across countries and thereby been a major determinant of the distribution of World population and a prime cause of the great divergence in income per person across countries in the last two centuries. The underlying theory suggests that international trade affected the evolution of economies asymmetrically. The gains from trade were channelled towards population growth in the Global South, while in the North they were directed towards investment in education and growth in output per person. The demographic transition in the South was therefore delayed, increasing further the abundance of unskilled labour in these economies and enhancing their comparative disadvantage in production and trade. This historic asymmetry is often ignored, and delayed demographic transition and the resultant consumption of resources by the Global South, particularly the consumption of energy is subject to negative interpretations. In the early 2000s, when energy consumption increased by unprecedented rates in the South (notably by China), it was portrayed as a “threat” to energy security of the Global North. Now, energy consumption by the South is framed as “irresponsible”, as it causes a runaway increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission, levels that is behind climate change. This framing allows the Global North to sustain its luxury energy consumption rather than reduce consumption to make carbon space available for the Global South. It also enables the North to reject any proposal for a small share of wealth to be redistributed to the South, labelling it unfair and unjust. The irony is that redistribution of wealth would increase energy consumption and HDI in the Global South, a public good that will facilitate reduction in migration - an outcome that the North will actually welcome.
Source: Energy-Statistical Review of World Energy 2024; HDI – UN Development Programme
Imports
India will import coking coal from Mongolia on a trial basis from later this month, as the country seeks to diversify imports of the key steelmaking raw material to cut over-reliance on Australia. Steelmakers including JSW Steel and Steel Authority of India (SAIL) are poised to receive coking coal shipments from Mongolia after months of negotiations. JSW Steel is expected to receive around 30,000 metric tonnes (MT) of coking coal from Mongolia and SAIL is likely to get 3,000 to 5,000 MT. For JSW Steel, this would be the second such shipment after 2021, when India’s biggest steel maker bought 8,000 MT of coking coal from Mongolia. The supplies would come to India via Chinese ports, but Indian authorities do not think New Delhi should entirely rely on China for steady supplies of coking coal from Mongolia. India is trying to figure out alternate routes for the supplies of Mongolian coking coal to India. Indian mills have asked the government to step in and help work out the routes that would ensure regular supplies of coking coal from Mongolia, which offers superior grades. Some Indian companies are also looking at either acquiring or leasing coal and copper assets in Mongolia. Indian steel companies consume around 70 mt of coking coal annually, and imports constitute around 85 percent of the country’s total requirements. During the first half of 2024, Russia emerged as India's third-biggest supplier of coking coal by selling it 3.3 mt.
According to data from coal consultancy Bigmint, Indian imports of Russian coal have declined while United States of America (US) shipments have risen in the three months ending in May, which traders attributed to Russian supplies becoming less competitive. Russia’s exports of all types of coal to India over the period fell 22.4 percent from a year earlier to 6.76 mt. US exports rose 14.4 percent to 6.68 mt in the same period. The decline in Indian imports of Russian coal was driven by a 67 percent plunge year-on-year in shipments of thermal coal, used mainly for power generation. Purchases of steelmaking grades such as coking coal, anthracite and pulverized coal injection (PCI) coal rose during the period. India is Russia’s second-largest coal market after China and the decrease follows fresh western sanctions on Russia because of the war in Ukraine.
The union power ministry has directed the Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation (TANGEDCO) to reduce coal imports from 6 percent to 4 percent for this fiscal year. This is expected to reduce the financial burden of the power utility, as according to officials, domestic coal (including the cost to transport) is at least INR2,000 lesser per tonne than the imported coal. With TANGEDCO’s annual coal requirement at 22.34 mt, a 2 percent reduction in purchase of imported coal would mean the power utility’s purchase will come down by roughly 450,000 tonnes this financial year.
Coal block auctions
The coal ministry put up 67 coal mines for auction across eight states, including Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, West Bengal and Telangana. Union Ministry of Coal and Mines launched the 10th tranche of commercial coal mine auctions in Hyderabad. The tranche includes mines that are both fully explored and partially explored and three coking coal mines. The ministry has taken a series of reform measures to ensure that the coal sector grows at a rapid pace and meets the country’s energy needs. It emphasised the critical role of coal as the lifeline for all industries and its pivotal contribution to achieving a US$5 trillion (tn) economy. It stressed that all coal entrepreneurs should collaborate towards the nation’s development and align with the vision of making India ‘Aatmanirbhar’ in coal by making collective efforts and reducing the dependency on coal imports. The ministry reiterated the importance of enhancing domestic coal production for India’s economic growth.
NLC India Ltd has bagged a coal mine in Odisha. The coal produced from the mine will address the energy security of the country. The coal mine has total reserves of around 1.38 billion tonnes (bt) with an operatable peak-rated capacity of 30 million tonnes per annum (MTPA). This is the second coal mine won by the public sector enterprise after North Dhadu coal block (Western Part). The company said that it is committed to its capacity addition in line with its vision of achieving more than 100 MTPA by 2030 from the present 50 MTPA. Meanwhile, the coal ministry executed the Coal Mining Development and Production Agreements for three coal mines that were auctioned. The mines for which agreements were executed are Machhakata (Revised) coal mine, Kudanali Lubri coal mine, and Sakhigopal-B Kakurhi coal mine, the coal ministry said in a statement. GMDC (Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation) has been awarded a coal block in Odisha. The mine is a partially explored block with an estimated reserve of 396.10 million tonnes (mt) of thermal coal. With the addition of this coal mine, the estimated coal reserves with GMDC stand at around 2040 mt.
Demand
According to Union Coal and Mines Ministry there is "no shortage" of coal for the power sector and the Centre will ensure adequate supply of the dry fuel to meet demand. The ministry is of the view that the long-term demand will be met by increased productivity of Coal India and commercial mines. Coal production usually faces hindrances during the monsoon season. The Nominated Authority of the Coal Ministry held a meeting to review the status of both operational and non-operational captive and commercial coal mines. During the meeting, the authority stressed on the need for operationalising coal blocks that are in advanced stages of development. The department appreciated efforts of all allottees in increasing coal production and urged them to achieve the committed output targets for the 2024-25 financial year (FY25). The Coal Ministry has allocated or auctioned 161 mines with a peak-rated capacity of 575 mt. Of these, 58 have received mine opening permission, and 54 are operational. Last year, these mines produced 147 mt, constituting 15 percent of the country’s total coal production. The government had relaxed technical eligibility for coal block auctions to attract more participants. It has recently concluded the 10th round of coal block auctions.
India’s seaborne thermal coal imports fell to a four-month low in June 2024 reflecting the seasonal weakness in power demand as monsoon rains spread across the country bringing down temperatures. According to energy intelligence firm Kpler, India’s thermal coal imports, largely consumed by the power sector, fell a steep 22.8 percent month on month (m-o-m) to 13.62 mt interrupting the five-month rally this year during which cargoes of the critical fuel rose from 13.53 mt in January to a six-month high of 17.57 mt in May. According to the National Power Portal, India’s coal-based power plants reported a plant load factor (PLF), or capacity utilisation, of 74.90 percent last month, compared with 77.17 percent and 76.48 percent in April and May 2024, respectively.
According to Coal Ministry, the Centre is working on a policy to offer washed coking coal to the steel sector as it aims to reduce imports of the dry fuel. The ministry noted that the Indian coal sector is witnessing a robust growth reaching to around 1 bt of coal production in FY24 with a CAGR of 11 percent in the last 2 years. The government has launched the coking coal mission with a target of producing 140 mt by 2030. The government will set up 8 coking coal washeries to meet the demand of the steel sector. As per the ministry, for the steel sector, the government is working on a policy for the steel sector where washery route will be applied as the end-route for coking coal thereby reducing import dependence.
Eastern Coalfields Limited (ECL) will conduct a pilot project for underground coal gasification (UCG) at the Kasta coal block in Jamtara District, Jharkhand. The project is expected to help in promoting the usage of coal gasification technology in the coal sector. According to the coal ministry the project will provide a significant advantage by providing access to coal resources that are not economically viable through traditional mining methods. The initiative is also expected to create employment opportunities and promote sustainable development.
Rajasthan will receive 400,000 metric tonnes (approximately 100 rakes) of coal that was stuck in the washeries of Chhattisgarh, the chief minister’s office (CMO) said. This coal will increase the reserves in the state’s power plants, ensuring adequate electricity for the public, the CMO said. The coal supply will provide temporary respite to the thermal plants in the state as 100,000 metric tonnes are required daily to meet the power demand, the CMO said. Rajasthan State Power Generation Corporation had awarded Aryan Coal Beneficiation India Limited (ACBEL) in Korba, Chhattisgarh, a five-year contract to supply coal from SECL’s mine to the Suratgarh and Chhabra thermal power plants. However, in July 2022, ACBEL’s washeries were sealed due to joint actions by Chhattisgarh’s state tax (GST) department, mineral department, revenue department, and environment department, causing about 400,000 metric tonnes of Rajasthan’s coal to be stuck in the washeries.
The Telangana government urged the Centre to allocate all the coal blocks located near Singareni Collieries to the state-run mining company without going through the auction process. According to the state government, coal production is now going on in about 40 mines, and about 22 coal mines will have to be closed down by 2032-33 as coal would be exhausted there. There are estimates that the coal production would fall to 17.28 mt by 2060 from the 70 mt at present.
India will add more new coal power capacity than it has in almost a decade this year, as the country rushes to deploy generation to cope with surging electricity demand. India said last year that it plans to add close to 90 GW of coal-fired capacity by 2032, lifting a forecast from just months before by more than half. The country has 28.5 GW of coal power currently being built and more than 50 GW that are planned to be awarded for construction over the next three years.
Diversification
Graphite is the first mineral Coal India Ltd (CIL) will diversify its operations beyond coal, following an order from the Ministry of Mines granting the company a composite license for prospecting and mining. This license pertains to the Khattali Chhoti Graphite Block in Alirajpur, Madhya Pradesh.
Rest of the world
China
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, China’s coal output rose to a six-month high in June, as mines ramped up production to meet seasonal demand and safety inspections that constrained production earlier in the year eased. The world's largest coal producer mined 405.38 mt of the fuel last month, a 3.6 percent increase on the year and the highest since December. Lower production from China’s coking coal hub of Shanxi had weighed on output during the March-May period after the local government ordered a series of safety checks following an uptick in deadly accidents, and told miners to curb excess production. The province mined 29 percent of China’s coal last year.
China’s coal production has slowed slightly, after rapid growth in the last two years, as the energy supply situation has become more comfortable, allowing the government to focus on long-term structural changes. China’s mines produced 1,858 mt of coal in the first five months of 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics data. Some imports are higher-quality specialist coals used for steelmaking, while others are lower-quality coals for power generation that landed at ports along the south and east coasts, far from the main coal-producing areas. Given constraints on the domestic rail network and the relatively high cost of transporting bulky coal overland it can be cheaper to import by sea from Indonesia and Australia for power generators in the south and east. Nonetheless, there seems to have been a real decline in demand for coal, after two years in which the government ordered flat-out growth to avoid any repeat of the fuel shortages and electricity scarcity in the autumn of 2021. In 2023, Shanxi was the top coal producing province, with output of 1,357 mt, and has experienced the greatest increase in output in recent years, up from 778 mt in 2016.
Rest of Asia and Asia Pacific
South Korea has sanctioned a Hong Kong shipping company, HK Yilin Shipping Co., and a North Korean vessel over allegations of the illegal transfer of North Korean coal in violation of UN Security Council resolutions, its foreign ministry said. A vessel owned by Yilin Shipping took coal from a North Korean vessel, Tok Song, in March off North Korea’s coast in a ship-to-ship transfer in violation of two Security Council resolutions imposed over Pyongyang’s illegal weapons programs, the ministry said.
According to energy think tank Ember’s data, the Philippines surpassed Indonesia and China to break into the world’s top ten economies most dependent on coal-fired power., The country’s share of coal in electricity generation rose for the fifteenth straight year in 2023, despite a target to cut dependence on the fuel to less than half of total power output by 2030. Kosovo had the highest coal dependence in 2023, according to the data, with 88.21 percent of its power coming from the polluting fuel. Coal accounted for 61.92 percent of all electricity generated in the archipelago in 2023, from 59.07 percent in 2022 - the highest jump in dependence on the fossil fuel since 2016. China fell outside of the top 10 in 2023 as an acceleration in renewables helped cut the share of coal in its electricity generation, but it remained the largest overall generator of coal-fired power, with India second. Indonesia became the world’s fifth largest generator of coal-fired power, with output growing at an average pace of 7.1 percent over 8 years to overtake South Korea for the first time.
According to Anglo American, it was battling an underground fire at its Grosvenor metallurgical coal mine in Australia’s Queensland state after a blaze ignited there. The mine site is in the coal mining town of Moranbah, located approximately 1,000 km (621 miles) north of state capital Brisbane. It is the same mine where an explosion in May 2020 critically injured five workers. The Grosvenor mine produced 2.797 mt of metallurgical coal in 2023, making up 17 percent of Anglo American’s coal output, according to its annual report. The company is the world’s third largest exporter of metallurgical coal. At the mine, the company uses the longwall mining method, a method used to extract long panels of coal in a single slice.
Europe
The company planning to build a new coal mine in Whitehaven, Cumbria has fought its case in court, saying it can and will build a “unique” net zero mine. The head of the mining company sat side-by-side in court with the climate campaigners that want to stop him opening the UK’s first deep coal mine in 30 years. Approval for the mine - which aims to produce coking coal for use in steel manufacturing - was granted in 2022 by the last government.
A rise in European wholesale gas prices over the past several months could encourage more utilities to switch to coal for electricity generation this coming winter, even as countries try to push the carbon-intense fuel out of the power mix. While many European countries, such as France, Britain and Italy, have already either phased out coal completely or have limited scope for large-scale gas-to-coal switching, it remains a key part of the power mix in Europe’s number one energy consumer Germany, and much of eastern Europe. A gas-to-coal shift would reverse a trend which began earlier this year when European gas prices fell to near a three-year low in February, incentivizing a switch in other direction. Plants fired by coal, which emits more than double the carbon dioxide equivalent per megawatt hour (MWh) of power produced than gas, also have to take into account the greater cost of EU carbon permits to offset their emissions.
29 July: Union Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said India is the only country where rates of petrol and diesel have come down between November 2021 and April 2024. He said that the government is encouraging dialogue between Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) and dealers regarding margins for the latter. He noted that petrol and diesel were deregulated during the UPA government. However, he said in France the increase in petrol price has been 22.19 percent, Germany 15.28 percent, Italy 14.82 percent, Spain 16.58 percent.
30 July. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) is scouting for liquefied natural gas (LNG) import deals as it expects to start its 5 million tonnes per year (tpy) LNG terminal in western India by end of this year. The company’s previous attempt to commission the Chhara LNG terminal in April failed due to the bad weather. The refiner is building a breakwater to protect the harbor and would consider leasing capacity in the LNG terminal to other players after commissioning. HPCL will meet the gas needs of its two existing refineries and a new 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) refinery and petrochemical project in the desert state of Rajasthan through the Chhara terminal.
30 July: GAIL (India) Ltd, posted a bigger-than-expected profit, helped by strength in its natural gas marketing business. GAIL, India’s top natural gas distributor by market share, said its net profit rose by nearly 93 percent to INR27.24 billion (US$325.45 million) for the June quarter. GAIL supplies about 52 percent of the natural gas sold in the country, primarily serving the power and fertilizer sectors. The company’s revenue from natural gas marketing segment, which accounts for the bulk of its overall revenue, rose 3.7 percent. Meanwhile, revenue from its natural gas transmission segment, which commands about 70 percent market share in the sector, posted a 13.3 percent rise.
29 July: India’s Torrent Power has issued a tender seeking supplies of (LNG) liquefied natural gas over a period of 10 years. The utility is seeking delivery of six cargoes per year from 2027. The tender closes on 16 August.
28 July: Following a decrease in coal reserves in over 166 thermal plants across the country including Telangana, the Centre has advised the States to maintain adequate stocks of coal to meet the energy demand. The union power ministry has revealed that there could be a possibility of an average shortage of 1.30 lakh tonnes per day. Stating that there could be shortage of goods trains to transport coal from the mines due to heavy rain across the country, the Centre has asked all the States to manage coal reserves. To overcome the shortage of coal, the Centre has suggested that every thermal station should import at least 4 percent of its daily coal consumption from abroad. All the thermal plants in Telangana should have a continuous stock of 11,76,700 tonnes, but as of July 25, it was 8,04,800 tonnes which is 32 percent less. The Singareni needs to supply at least 2 lakh tonnes of coal per day to the thermal plants situated in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, but it was not able to do so as heavy rains had forced work in its mines to come to a standstill. The Singareni was struggling to supply coal to its own thermal plant situated in the Jaipur area of Mancherial district. This plant should have a coal reserve of 3.29 lakh tonnes on a regular basis, but currently it was having a coal reserve of 1.60 lakh tonnes due to the rains. The coal ministry was working on a ‘monsoon management plan’ to ensure adequate availability of the fuel at power plants during the rainy season when both coal production and evacuation were impacted. Interestingly, earlier this year, the ministry had ruled out any possibility of a dry coal shortage in the monsoon season and said that it had sufficient stocks to meet the demand of power plants.
28 July: With more commercial mines being auctioned, the Directorate General of Mines Safety (DGMS) has started discussions with captive and commercial coal block operators on mine safety. The DGMS emphasises ensuring adherence to safety norms among new players. In the last nine rounds, the coal ministry has auctioned 107 blocks with a peak-rated capacity of 256 million tonnes (MT). So far, 11 commercial coal blocks have been operationalised. Meanwhile, Coal India Ltd (CIL), which is diversifying into the non-coal sector, will actively participate in more auctions of critical mineral blocks, including lithium, to capitalise on the battery value chain. CIL has recently won a graphite block in Madhya Pradesh, marking its first venture into the non-coal mineral mining.
25 July: Private sector owns over 52 percent of the total installed power generation capacity of 446 gigawatt (GW) in the country, playing an important role in the sector, Parliament informed. As on 30 June 2024, total installed capacity in the country is 4,46,190 megawatt (MW) and out of which the contribution of the private sector is approximately 2,34,065 MW i.e. 52.5 percent. The electricity demand in India has witnessed a growth of around 9 percent for the years 2021-22 and 2022-23. In order to meet estimated electricity demand by the year 2031-32, generation planning studies have been carried out by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).
28 July: Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) administration approved a INR4 billion project under which grid-tier rooftop solar power systems will be installed on all government buildings in the union territory. The project shall be implemented by J&K Energy Development Agency (JKEDA). The government buildings shall be installed with Rooftop Solar Projects of different capacities aimed at leveraging the vast rooftop spaces of government establishments for solar energy generation. The project is expected to be completed by the end of December 2025 and shall subsequently be maintained free of cost for five years by JAKEDA through the empanelled vendors. The project sites developed under RESCO (Renewable Energy Service Company) mode through Solar power developers shall have to execute power Purchase Agreements for 25 years with the respective departments on the tariff to be determined through a bidding process. With the implementation of the project, the reduction in carbon emissions by installing 270 MW Solar Power Plants will be around 8.3 million tonnes over a period of 25 years.
24 July: Russian crude oil production in June exceeded quotas set by the OPEC+ group but the energy ministry pledged to stick to the required output level in July. The ministry said Russia had sent its schedule on overproduction compensation to the OPEC secretariat, and that its oil output had fallen each month starting from April. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, together known as OPEC+, have made a series of deep output cuts since late 2022. Under the OPEC+ accord, Russia’s production quota stood at 8.979 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, including extra voluntary cuts, pledged by eight group members. Riyadh needs higher oil prices to balance its books. According to OPEC, Russia’s cumulative oil overproduction in January-June this year stood at 480,000 bpd under the OPEC+ deal, and the country has pledged to offset the bulk of the excess output next year. Russia would offset 40,000 bpd of oil overproduction in October-November 2024, while 440,000 bpd of excess output will be offset in March-September 2025, OPEC said.
30 July: Spanish utility Iberdrola faces claims worth up to US$535 million in an arbitration process launched by Singaporean liquefied natural gas (LNG) company Pavilion Energy over a supply contract, according to Iberdrola reoprt. The dispute is related to a 2019 contract, under which Pavilion supplies natural gas to Iberdrola. In June, Shell agreed to buy Pavilion Energy from global investment company Temasek.
24 July: Venezuela granted a 20-year license to British energy producer BP and National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago (NGC) to develop the Venezuelan side of a natural gas field that extends into the Caribbean country’s waters. Venezuela, whose gas reserves are mostly untapped, has in recent years expanded offers for offshore gas projects to foreign companies, but progress remains slow amid sanctions and a massive need for investment. The Cocuina-Manakin field, whose Venezuelan portion belongs to the idled gas offshore project Plataforma Deltana, has 1 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves.
24 July: Colombia’s Ecopetrol expects the country’s gas deficit will hit 120 billion British thermal units (Btu) per day in 2025 and around 300 billion Btu in 2026, CEO (chief executive officer) Ricardo Roa said. The new figures represent an increase on earlier estimates of 83 billion Btu for next year and around 160 billion Btu in 2026. At the end of June, Ecopetrol called for "flexibility" to enable gas block sales that would shore up the country’s self-sufficiency in energy, where gas reserves closed 2023 at 6.1 years of consumption.
30 July: The power sector is the only major consumer of natural gas that has shown consistent demand growth in recent years, and has become the driving force behind natural gas demand in the United States (US) as consumption from other sectors declines. Natural gas use by power generators has expanded by around 3.5 percent a year over the past three years, and is by far the largest single source of gas use in the US, data from LSEG shows. Average gas consumption by power firms grew by 70 billion cubic feet per day in 2023, while average combined consumption by industry, households and commercial users fell by 114 billion cubic feet per day. Power firms accounted for around 44.4 percent of total domestic gas use in 2023, compared to around 29 percent by industry, 15.5 percent by households and 11 percent by commercial users.
26 July: Japan’s biggest power generator JERA said it will start a unit of a new 2.34 gigawatt (GW) gas-fired power station at Goi in Chiba, near Tokyo, on 1 August to help avoid electricity shortages during peak summer demand season. The three new 0.78 GW units replaces the old 1.886 GW power station which consisted of six smaller units and ceased operations in 2018. JERA is launching the 0.78-GW No.1 unit, capable of providing power for about 2 million households, early next month, one month ahead of schedule, to meet increased electricity demand following the recent heat wave.
24 July: The amount of electricity produced by wind farms in the US (United States) fell to a 33-month low, forcing power generators to crank up natural gas fired plants to keep air conditioners humming during a hot summer day. Over the past few years, much of the money energy firms have invested in new generation has gone into renewable power sources like wind and solar. But when the wind stops blowing and the sun does not shine, gas is still needed to keep the lights on. Wind power in the Lower 48 states produced about 335,753 megawatt hours on 22 July, the lowest since 4 October 2021, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. Wind farms are on track to produce an average of just 4 percent of power generation, down from 7 percent, 12 percent so far in 2024 and 10 percent in 2023. Gas-fired power plants are producing an average of 48 percent of generation, up from 46 percent, 40 percent so far in 2024 and 41 percent in 2023. It is not unusual for wind power to decline during the summer months, but this has been a particularly bad month for wind. Wind produced about 11 percent of the nation’s power in 2023 and is on track to produce about 11 percent in 2024 and 2025, according projections from the EIA.
This is a weekly publication of the Observer Research Foundation (ORF). It covers current national and international information on energy categorised systematically to add value. The year 2024 is the twenty-first continuous year of publication of the newsletter. The newsletter is registered with the Registrar of News Paper for India under No. DELENG / 2004 / 13485.
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